Model 3 - LR AWD Waiting Room

[ZZ118]

estimated

adjective

1. (of a value or number) roughly calculated; approximate.

 

[ehartfiel]

Opinions on 18" vs 19" wheels? Any significant difference in ride quality? Is the risk of pothole damage significantly higher? Do you think the EDD would improve with 19" wheels.

I live in WI, so we have a number of potholes.

I have 18" wheels on order, but considering switching to 19" if it may improve the EDD. Thoughts?

 

[ZZ118]

I think it's pretty clear at this point that it doesn't matter what the word means if the way the phase is received suggests a greater confidence factor than is actually available. It's like Autopilot being misinterpreted by enough people to make it dangerous. The presentation really should be reworked so as to ensure that everyone gets the right idea from it. It's a matter of managing perceptions, and it's a valuable service that a company can provide.

Perhaps saying something like 4-6 weeks instead of specific calendar dates. Or "latter half of October". Given that many anxious people would immediately convert those to exact date, perhaps a graphic that is more challenging to work with. Some timeline showing the four quarters of the year with a colored bar in the area of estimated delivery. The darn thing might even move around while you look at it, or the edges might be faded out. There are many ways to do this, and it really is pretty important (from a customer standpoint) to get it right. Getting stuff right seems to be Tesla's mission in life, but I'm not sure if the people who came up with this system are onboard.

I'll play along. It's very very obvious what tesla does as these edd are not random. For example I'm 7/31 to 9/11. That means tesla has assigned me to a batch. There are many people here with that date. If all goes well that batch will be made and delivered in that date. As any statistician will tell you a prediction confidence will increase as you get closer to a certain date. That is why the edd generally narrows as you get to closer going from weeks to days to day. However as the date gets narrower there is less room for delay without bumping the edd. However again these are estimates and any thing that slows down the line can bump the edd. There is really no better way to do it.

 

[ZZ118]

Opinions on 18" vs 19" wheels? Any significant difference in ride quality? Is the risk of pothole damage significantly higher? Do you think the EDD would improve with 19" wheels.

I live in WI, so we have a number of potholes.

I have 18" wheels on order, but considering switching to 19" if it may improve the EDD. Thoughts?

Larger wheels generally are a less smooth ride with lower range. EDD may be closer? And larger wheel have higher risk of damage

 

[blr0304]

Day 77. Today I’m going to rake the leaves off the parking spot for my imaginary Tesla.

 

[southpaw407]

I'll play along. It's very very obvious what tesla does as these edd are not random. For example I'm 7/31 to 9/11. That means tesla has assigned me to a batch. There are many people here with that date. If all goes well that batch will be made and delivered in that date. As any statistician will tell you a prediction confidence will increase as you get closer to a certain date. That is why the edd generally narrows as you get to closer going from weeks to days to day. However as the date gets narrower there is less room for delay without bumping the edd. However again these are estimates and any thing that slows down the line can bump the edd. There is really no better way to do it.

To that end, the EDD's are made based on the information available at the time and makes certain assumptions. As new information is available and assumptions change -- so does the date. Down in FL we go through the same type of issue when it comes to hurricanes -- which is why they forecast a range. But as time moves forward some variables are confirmed and others are different than originally expected so the path might shift.

In the case of hurricanes the projected path might depend on timing of a high pressure front or something -- but if the timing doesn't match up exactly it can cause fairly significant changes to the prediction. I have to think that has to be similar to how Tesla is setting EDDs. In my case, my original EDD range was accurate but during the process it got pulled in a bit and then later shifted out. If you're assuming every date you're given is going to be 100% accurate you're probably going to end up frustrated and disappointed.

 

[KleenM3]

Day 77. Today I’m going to rake the leaves off the parking spot for my imaginary Tesla.

I've raked leaves in my driveway, front yard, backyard 6 times...and 12 of my neighbor's driveways. Still waiting....oh and I'm at day 85!

 

[Alpine007]

My EDD also changed slightly. It was EDD May 20-June 3 and now it's May 24-June 7. Pickup in Oregon so maybe a shipping issue; or maybe a longer MSM manufacturing run. Since others have had numerous adjustments to EDD, I'm not getting my hopes up yet.

My EDD also updated to EDD 3 5/19 : 5/21/-6/02 for delivery in Portland, OR (11 day window down from 14)

 

[Tom_JS]

To that end, the EDD's are made based on the information available at the time and makes certain assumptions. As new information is available and assumptions change -- so does the date. Down in FL we go through the same type of issue when it comes to hurricanes -- which is why they forecast a range. But as time moves forward some variables are confirmed and others are different than originally expected so the path might shift.

In the case of hurricanes the projected path might depend on timing of a high pressure front or something -- but if the timing doesn't match up exactly it can cause fairly significant changes to the prediction. I have to think that has to be similar to how Tesla is setting EDDs. In my case, my original EDD range was accurate but during the process it got pulled in a bit and then later shifted out. If you're assuming every date you're given is going to be 100% accurate you're probably going to end up frustrated and disappointed.

The thing that really confuses me about EDDs is why some people get multiple updates and some are steady. Me and another buyer ordered The same exact car for delivery to the same place but ordered 3 days apart. My EDD was pretty much spot-on from the beginning and just got the standard update to 14-ay and finally 4 day windows. Whereas he got multiple updates going back and forth, sometimes by weeks. That is really strange.

But I guess it’s just us nuts here that check so often to even see Every. Single. Update.

 

[Alpine007]

My EDD also updated to EDD 3 5/19 : 5/21/-6/02 for delivery in Portland, OR (11 day window down from 14)

err 12 day window, forgot how many days in May

 

[CabinCrusher]

So I have to ask what will you be naming your car? Since Speed Racer was my first love as a little girl, mine will be the Mach 6 (Speed Racer 2nd Gen electric car that can time travel for those that didn’t know).

Oh man, I LOVED Seed racer growing up!

 

[devianxxx]

To that end, the EDD's are made based on the information available at the time and makes certain assumptions. As new information is available and assumptions change -- so does the date. Down in FL we go through the same type of issue when it comes to hurricanes -- which is why they forecast a range. But as time moves forward some variables are confirmed and others are different than originally expected so the path might shift.

I guess the heart of my frustration, perhaps some overly idealistic or dramatic points aside, comes down to the fact that I'm challenging the bold notion. My EDD has not been visibly adjusted based on any new data (or new uncertainty) about the charge port. It is simply on an automated Today+4 system that updates every morning exactly at 10AM ET.

"Estimated" doesn't mean "Guaranteed," but it also shouldn't mean "Random."

 

[Hiline]

The thing that really confuses me about EDDs is why some people get multiple updates and some are steady. Me and another buyer ordered The same exact car for delivery to the same place but ordered 3 days apart. My EDD was pretty much spot-on from the beginning and just got the standard update to 14-ay and finally 4 day windows. Whereas he got multiple updates going back and forth, sometimes by weeks. That is really strange.

But I guess it’s just us nuts here that check so often to even see Every. Single. Update.

Likely a different batch. As @ZZ118 mentioned, each batch moves together. It would be more strange if different vehicles in the same batch were treated differently with respect to EDD.

 

[CabinCrusher]

I can't stress this enough. Anybody who cannot wait or doesn't want to should just buy another car. I think the Mach E lead time is only 9 months long but they won't have to worry about their EDD being inaccurate because there won't be any.

Can confirm, dropped my Mach E rez for M3. Ford is an absolute sh*t storm with reservations

 

[Mwhusa]

Small positive movement this afternoon. Got the generic trade in text from tesla so things are looking a little bit better.

 

[travis3000]

View attachment 805353
Finally going to sleep. Added a few things. BTW this car was almost perfect! A few smudges on the leather cleaned right off, you can tell they detailed the exterior and left some wax or whatever but will be doing a full clean and possibly ceramic coat. No ppf. Already coated the leather with GYEON leather ceramic. Will be sticking around for awhile, I aint got them social media's so ill be sticking with TMC and of course waiting to see yall receive your cars! Especially @T-J- !! Gnight!

Looks amazing!! Ive decided my next Tesla will be red. More unique and the paint is stunning. White seats too. I mean look at that shine!!

 

[Hiline]

Can confirm, dropped my Mach E rez for M3. Ford is an absolute sh*t storm with reservations

Can you expand on this a bit? What else was not so good about their reservation process?

 

[JB47394]

I'll play along. It's very very obvious what tesla does as these edd are not random. For example I'm 7/31 to 9/11. That means tesla has assigned me to a batch. There are many people here with that date. If all goes well that batch will be made and delivered in that date. As any statistician will tell you a prediction confidence will increase as you get closer to a certain date. That is why the edd generally narrows as you get to closer going from weeks to days to day. However as the date gets narrower there is less room for delay without bumping the edd. However again these are estimates and any thing that slows down the line can bump the edd. There is really no better way to do it.

I'm not advocating a change to the way that the dates are chosen, but the way that they are presented. The way they're doing it is frustrating a lot of people.

 

[ZZ118]

I'm not advocating a change to the way that the dates are chosen, but the way that they are presented. The way they're doing it is frustrating a lot of people.

IOne thing I will agree on though is the other models definitely have major issues with their EDD and in those cases I think the EDD should maybe be removed. However with regards to the M3LR I think the production schedule and edd are fairly accurate as a whole

 

[ZZ118]

I also really think tesla should maybe discontinue the model 3 rwd just have 2 models. They also might need to maybe combine x and y. I know the whole S3XY thing haha but I personally think tesla has to many models/makes at this time and they are now trying to make cybertruck and semi's :/