Model 3 Delivery Estimates for Q4 2017

[bdy0627]

Given what we are seeing out there now in terms of Model 3s plus the acknowledged ongoing delays of unknown duration, I choose to be cautious regarding expectations with Model 3 in 2017. Musk's estimates so far are off the mark, perhaps by a lot. Of course, we all know he is incredibly optimistic to begin with. Several analysts who are pretty reasonable with respect to Tesla (Kallo, Jonas) have very conservative estimates that, so far, look relatively accurate right now, especially Kallo. I think Tesla will fall short of its guidance for Model 3 in 2017. I do not believe the production rate will be at 5,000 per week by the end of December. That's a target that I believe they will miss on by a couple of months. I also believe they are having some serious struggles with autopilot. My WAG is for between 5-10k Model 3 delivered by end of 2017. I would love to be proven overly cautious.

 

[Svetlin]

1134

 

[lunitiks]

260

 

[EinSV]

7734 produced. Still in production hell but purgatory is in sight up ahead. 5734 delivered.

 

[dhanson865]

That's a fair question. This thread started with a delivery discussion related to the US federal tax incentive timelines expiring. I thought @techmaven was very optimistic, which this poll is showing.

That said, Tesla will be in a rush to deliver and the owners would be in a rush to take delivery to get the incentive for tax year 2017, rather than 18. I don't expect more than a 2k delta between the two figures as all these deliveries will still be out of Fremont delivery center for the most part.

2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

I think a 2k delta is fair enough. Pair that with I think they'll produce more than 5,000 in Q4 but deliver less than 5,000 in Q4 and we have the range of:

3001 delivered, 5001 produced to 4999 delivered, 6999 produced.

I don't see this as bearish overall, as I look out more than one quarter ahead for my attitude. I just don't think pre 2018 will be pumping out massive numbers of Model 3. Give them the holidays under their belt and let them come out swinging in Jan. I'm looking forward to an exciting 2018.

 

[SBenson]

<2K is my present guess.

That's my current view. But obviously I will change my mind as time passes and new info becomes available.

It's hard to keep up with all news and discussion threads. Apologies if this was discussed before. Apparently WSJ (I know) found through insider info that the BIW itself is not ready at least until end of Oct. If that's true then what are the odds that the rest is ready.

Also, I believe there are some sizeable production/yield issues in GF. Why did powerwall 2 ramp up take so long.

I do believe ultimately everything will be overcome. But right now internally they seem to be going through the darkest hours.

 

[trils0n]

2400 is my guess. Seem to remember that being about the number of S and X in each of their first full quarters of production.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

9,999.

assuming they're exiting Dec at a run rate of 5k per week, then the previous week would be at 2500k, and 2000k before that, giving 4500k produced in Dec that are deliverable, plus half in Nov (~2250), and 1000 in Oct (nice ramp from 220 in Sept). All adds up to a nice round SWAG!

 

[Todd Burch]

Apparently WSJ (I know) found through insider info that the BIW itself is not ready at least until end of Oct. If that's true then what are the odds that the rest is ready.

WSJ and Daily Kanban articles already debunked by TSLA as false. The article was written by longtime TSLA FUDster Neidermayer.

 

[MartinAustin]

I went with 5,000 several months ago - predicting there would be "shenanigans" and that has certainly come to pass. But this is a heck of a lot more than the Model X ramp-up, which was less than 500 in the first quarter.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Elon Musk on Twitter

The Model 3 body line slowed down to 1/10th

Let's see the revisions boys!

 

[dhanson865]

Let's see the revisions boys!

just to clarify, it is the body line at 1/10th speed not the video.

Elon Musk on Twitter

The Model 3 body line slowed down to 1/10th

Elon Musk‏Verified account @elonmusk

Replying to @balajis_

That is actual speed. It is slowed down right now to confirm build consistency and so that a person can stop the robots in time if something goes wrong.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

just to clarify

Sure, I agree, but even then, potential 500/week in early October means good things await, no?

 

[generalenthu]

Let's see the revisions boys!

Not sure they'll change much, but here is a snapshot as of now.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Not sure they'll change much, but here is a snapshot as of now.

View attachment 252760

I did the same something about great minds

 

[dhanson865]

Sure, I agree, but even then, potential 500/week in early October means good things await, no?

I'm good with whatever comes out of October. I'm thinking longer term than the month or the quarter. I just wanted to paste in the updated quote since Elon posted after the prior quote.

 

[Out4aDuck]

Put me down for 3750.

 

[GoTslaGo]

So based on the video if the current rate is 1/10th of expected 5k, then we're at 500/week. There's approx 9-11 weeks left in the year (giving allowances for holidays). That's 5k total, starting now. Add in the 260 or so that's done now. Let's assume 2 weeks "slowdown"/Stoppage, that'll be around 4260 for the year. So a low estimate is 4250 for the year...and that is assuming they keep the current rate (not increasing).

That being said, I'm going to stick with my <5k prediction... since I'm always wrong on these!

 

[pGo]

The video is in no way a complete picture of the production line. I wish production was a simple machine like this welding unit. And it definitely is not showing where the bottleneck is. IMO, it doesn't say much at all.

 

[SBenson]

<2K is my present guess.

That's my current view. But obviously I will change my mind as time passes and new info becomes available.

It's hard to keep up with all news and discussion threads. Apologies if this was discussed before. Apparently WSJ (I know) found through insider info that the BIW itself is not ready at least until end of Oct. If that's true then what are the odds that the rest is ready.

Also, I believe there are some sizeable production/yield issues in GF. Why did powerwall 2 ramp up take so long.

I do believe ultimately everything will be overcome. But right now internally they seem to be going through the darkest hours.

The instagram clip is actually helpful in debunking the primary narrative in the WSJ piece. Kind of proves that the FUDsters have reached a fever pitch trying to abuse the current situation.

In any case, I give up on my prediction. I have no idea how things will shake out. Maybe even EM doesn't know at this point. But we all know one thing, there will be light at the end of the tunnel (and it's not an incoming train ).