Make your robotaxi predictions for the 8/8 reveal

So Elon says that Tesla will reveal a dedicated robotaxi vehicle on 8/8. What do you think we will see? Will it look like this concept art or something else?

I will say that while this concept drawing looks super cool, I am a bit skeptical if it is practical as a robotaxi. It looks to only have 2 seats which would be fine for 1-2 people who need a ride but would not work for more than 2 people. I feel like that would limit the robotaxis value for a lot of people. Also, it would likely need a steering wheel and pedals for regulatory reasons even if Tesla did achieve eyes-off capability.

So I think this is concept art for a hypothetical 2 seater, cheap Tesla, not a robotaxi.

Could the robotaxi look more like this concept art but smaller? It could look a bit more like say the Zoox vehicle or the Cruise Origin, more futuristic box like shape IMO and seat 5-6 people.

Or maybe the robotaxi will look more like the "model 2" concept:

Other questions:
- Will the robotaxis be available to own by individuals as a personal car or will it strictly be owned by Tesla and only used in a ride-hailing network?
- What will cost be?
- Will it have upgraded hardware? Radar? Lidar? additional compute?
- Will Elon reveal any details on how the ride-hailing network will work?

Thoughts? Let the fun speculation begin!

 

[JulienW]

1) Vaporware

EDIT: Going out for a run. Will try and answer more irresponsibly later today.

 

[legendsk]

All those questions will be answered Two Weeks after some future date following 8/8.

 

[diplomat33]

1) Vaporware

Yeah. I think we will see a prototype on stage and lots of hype. But I don't think the robotaxi will be mass produced or deployed for years. Much like the new roadster that was shown on stage 7 years ago but still has not actually been produced or sold to customers yet.

 

[MD70]

Whatever timeline is given, at least double or triple it. That way you won’t be disappointed when it doesn’t arrive on time.

 

[Matias]

October 2016 - "All Teslas are Level 5 (robotaxi) capable, pending a software download."
April 2019 - "One million robotaxis on the road by 2020."
April 2024 - "Robotaxi unveil 8/8"

 

[fhteagle]

I predict dancers in costumes designed to look like robot taxis, doing performance art on stage.

 

[diplomat33]

Troy thinks Tesla will simply unveil the compact car as the robotaxi.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1776402318277165467

 

[DarkandStormy]

If robotaxis are four months away, why is Tesla continuing to sell cars?

 

[Daniel in SD]

Low slung two seater makes no sense for robotaxi. Nobody wants a small taxi that’s hard to get in and out of. Though I guess if they use that design it will tell use they’re not optimistic about robotaxis and they just wanted to get more hype for Model 2.
They should make a Cyber Cruise Origin.

 

[MD70]

If robotaxis are four months away, why is Tesla continuing to sell cars?

Since Musk has a habit of launching products before they are ready, we will be lucky if robotaxis are 4 years away never mind 4 months.

 

[RDoc]

 

[nikolajz1]

They will have a steering wheel-less prototype with an ambiguous release date like the Cybertruck and Roadster for an unsupervised car. I really hope they release a compact for normal use though since as a single guy living in a city I rarely if ever even need the full size of the M3

I'm almost certain they will announce some Tesla version of Uber that will give drivers free (supervised ) FSD if they use it to shuttle people around. It will be lame but let they claim to have released robotaxis.

 

[Unclepaul]

Initial belief is that it will release with a removable steering wheel/yoke. The 48V architecture will enable full steer by wire. Combined with a fresh sensor array and changed locations, it will see far better than humans. Connected to AI (Perhaps via Starlink) it will rapidly send and recieve data at rates never before seen in automotive use.
The release will unveil as much info as they can, with the realization that it is coming soon, but indefinite deadline.

Perhaps only be released in certain markets, and with flexible regulations to adapt to regional regulators and their marketplace. Will get better over time.

People will go crazy, looking for places it may fail and be super judgmental, but eventually Tesla will have the last laugh.

 

[Matias]

Live feed from Tesla

 

[Matias]

Elon Musk Says Tesla Vehicles Will Drive Themselves in Two Years

Elon Musk opens up about autonomous vehicles, self-driving car rules, and the competition.

fortune.com

 

[JulienW]

Since Musk has a habit of launching products before they are ready, we will be lucky if robotaxis are 4 years away never mind 4 months.

Hopefully in less amount of time after announcement as it was before the Roadster II went into mass production.

 

[WyoDude]

Troy thinks Tesla will simply unveil the compact car as the robotaxi.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1776402318277165467

I agree. I have a feeling the robotaxi and model 2 will have a lot of overlap and both be predicated on the new manufacturing process they want to employ

 

[WyoDude]

Also I bet they announce plans for additional AI integration

 

[gsmith123]

I'm expecting a 2 seater, overall similar to the first concept art. I do expect a 4 wheeler vs a 3 wheeler with a single back wheel. Potentially RWD only. I'm expecting it's designed as a shared platform for a small compact personal vehicle (with normal drive controls, same as Model 3) and a dedicated robotaxi (2 seater in both cases). It might be steer by wire.

- Will the robotaxis be available to own by individuals as a personal car or will it strictly be owned by Tesla and only used in a ride-hailing network?

I think they'll sell them to individuals. There's plenty of market for cheaper EVs, I don't' see why they wouldn't sell these to people.

It looks to only have 2 seats which would be fine for 1-2 people who need a ride but would not work for more than 2 people. I feel like that would limit the robotaxis value for a lot of people.

Can't Model 3 fill that role? Maybe 70% of the robotaxi market is served by 2 seater vehicles, with the remainder served by larger vehicles. I don't have any supporting data, but it seems reasonable that most robotaxi trips could be 2 or fewer people (especially as costs go down). Most cars on the road already are, and they have higher operating costs than a small EV.

- Will it have upgraded hardware? Radar? Lidar? additional compute?

I expect it'll use more or less the same sensor and compute suite as the other cars. Divergence isn't a good thing for training an E2E AI system.

By the time this thing actually ships that might be HW5 though (with who knows what changes!) or still HW4 (probably with the front bumper cam like CT).

Connected to AI (Perhaps via Starlink) it will rapidly send and recieve data at rates never before seen in automotive use.

Sounds expensive. I doubt this thing will have a lot of shiny features that add cost - I'm expecting high focus on energy efficiency and material efficiency. Built in Starlink seems like a much more useful feature in a Cybertruck for personal use, not a shared use urban robotaxi.