Make your robotaxi predictions for the 8/8 reveal

So Elon says that Tesla will reveal a dedicated robotaxi vehicle on 8/8. What do you think we will see? Will it look like this concept art or something else?

I will say that while this concept drawing looks super cool, I am a bit skeptical if it is practical as a robotaxi. It looks to only have 2 seats which would be fine for 1-2 people who need a ride but would not work for more than 2 people. I feel like that would limit the robotaxis value for a lot of people. Also, it would likely need a steering wheel and pedals for regulatory reasons even if Tesla did achieve eyes-off capability.

So I think this is concept art for a hypothetical 2 seater, cheap Tesla, not a robotaxi.

Could the robotaxi look more like this concept art but smaller? It could look a bit more like say the Zoox vehicle or the Cruise Origin, more futuristic box like shape IMO and seat 5-6 people.

Or maybe the robotaxi will look more like the "model 2" concept:

Other questions:
- Will the robotaxis be available to own by individuals as a personal car or will it strictly be owned by Tesla and only used in a ride-hailing network?
- What will cost be?
- Will it have upgraded hardware? Radar? Lidar? additional compute?
- Will Elon reveal any details on how the ride-hailing network will work?

Thoughts? Let the fun speculation begin!

 

[spacecoin]

I fail to understand why people are so obsessed with scale right now.
The focus right now should be safety, especially since the tech isn't even proven yet.

That's not true. Waymo’s autonomous vehicles are significantly safer than human-driven ones, says new research led by Swiss Re

Wrt Tesla, another story. Zero driverless miles and zero intervention drives are not the norm.

 

[JulienW]

Tesla Partners With Baidu, Closer To Offering Self-Driving In China

Tesla will partner with Chinese search giant Baidu on mapping and navigation in the world's largest market for EVs.

www.forbes.com

So I guess it's going to be mapping in the end? Throwing in the towel on this whole Vision only nonsense?

I doubt Tesla will use different technologies in different markets.

Navigation & Mapping ≠ HD Maps used by an autonomous car.

 

[aataskin]

Navigation & Mapping ≠ HD Maps used by an autonomous car.

Meaning?..

 

[JulienW]

Meaning?..

In the US Tesla uses MapBox for Navigation and they aggregate the mapping data from sources liker Open Street Maps, Here, Google......

In China they can't use Western data sources.

HD Maps is when you drive the car on a route and Map the actual route with the cameras in the car and then use that data augmented to your mapping data.

 

[aataskin]

In the US Tesla uses MapBox for Navigation and they aggregate the mapping data from sources liker Open Street Maps, Here, Google......

In China they can't use Western data sources.

HD Maps is when you drive the car on a route and Map the actual route with the cameras in the car and then use that data augmented to your mapping data.

Ah, so Tesla will be able to offer the same supervised self driving in China as it does in the US, this is what this news is all about?

I thought at first it was about gaining access to their robotaxi technology, because that one already exists (in part because it's not Vision only):

Baidu Becomes First in China to Offer Driverless Airport Rides

/PRNewswire/ -- Baidu, Inc. (NASDAQ: BIDU and HKEX: 9888) ("Baidu" or the "Company"), a leading AI company with strong internet foundation, today announced the...

www.prnewswire.com

 

[enemji]

Tesla fans: ”Waymo is not making any money”.

Also Tesla fans: “Robotaxi is a trillion dollar opportunity”.

—

Tesla fans: “Look after 10000 rides the Waymo made a mistake. It’s clearly not ready.”

Also Tesla fans: “I had a zero intervention drive!!! Omg. Tesla is ahead, lidar and maps aren’t clearly not needed. V12 is a step-change. Next version will blow your mind”

How does waymo handle the situation when there is a drunk driver in the vicinity driving recklessly?

 

[enemji]

The focus right now should be safety, especially since the tech isn't even proven yet.

That is only possible on known roads, not when you are the trailblazer, the discoverer, going where no one has gone before.

 

[stopcrazypp]

I fail to understand why people are so obsessed with scale right now.

The focus right now should be safety, especially since the tech isn't even proven yet.

It's like talking about scaling smartphones in 2003. Let's not get ahead of ourselves.

The one aspect that everyone obsessed with scale misses is that transportation has to get safer, year over year.

There's no magical threshold that Robotaxis need to cross before considered "safe" for general public use.

Robotaxis MUST get safer and safer every year. The threshold is a moving target. Every transportation modality must get safer and safer over time as ridership increases (other than driving) to be accepted by the general public.

Flights must and have gotten significantly safer over time, for example, as ridership boomed from maybe a few thousand people a year to billions of people a year. One out of 100 planes falling out the sky is a big deal with a ridership of 2000 people. It's a code red emergency with a ridership of a billion people a year.

You don't scale to a billion passengers a year by keeping the safety level constant. Keeping safety constant = more and more passengers killed as ridership increases.

You scale by significantly making strides in safety on a consistent basis.

I think right now for Robotaxis, there needs to be a rock solid foundation, on which we can iterate in terms of safety. Without a good foundation, then you're just wasting everyone's time with a science experiment.

Because that's what investors care about. The various L4 systems already claim they are significantly safer than humans on average, they are hitting diminishing returns now on the front. Right now investors care about if they can ever scale and make a profit, which is why for AV companies that don't scale, they have shut down or their major investors have pulled funding. It's why Cruise and Waymo were focusing on expanding markets, the investors have limited patience for continuing to operate at a huge loss.

 

[stopcrazypp]

Tesla Partners With Baidu, Closer To Offering Self-Driving In China

Tesla will partner with Chinese search giant Baidu on mapping and navigation in the world's largest market for EVs.

www.forbes.com

So I guess it's going to be mapping in the end? Throwing in the towel on this whole Vision only nonsense?

I doubt Tesla will use different technologies in different markets.

Already discussed here, Baidu is just Tesla's map/navigation provider in China (long has been even before this announcement), nothing to do with AV tech. For the map tiles, Google is banned in China, plus the other US based navigation companies Tesla uses does not cover the country as well.

In fact as per the discussion, Tesla explicitly is not even using the most advanced of their maps. It will make Tesla's NOA operate better (more on par with other Chinese makes) and perhaps release FSDS in China, as Baidu has finally caught up and introduced 3D navigation maps (other Chinese map vendors have long had, for example AMap).

Autonomous Car Progress

Tesla will integrate Baidu "hd" maps into cars in China. "On Monday, Baidu announced that Tesla vehicles in China will integrate Baidu Maps V.20 in May which features a 3D lane-level navigation capability directly integrated into vehicles."...

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[spacecoin]

How does waymo handle the situation when there is a drunk driver in the vicinity driving recklessly?

No idea.