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latest Morgan Stanley prediction
- Thread starter ronmerkord
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+1 Couldn't happen to a better person for sure!All that really matters is they get to at least Signature #2
And more recently, the keyboard has changed from the ".com" key to the ".ca" key (in release 6.2).
I really wish they would change that back to .com !
Yes, Canada is certainly the exception to the country default domain rule, eh? Aren't we special. And sadly .eh is reserved for Western Sahara.
My guess is that they first produce the Founder edition-cars (guess it is 10-20 cars) and starts to take orders from Signatures (and maybe also General Production but Design Studio might open later for GP). They will then start slowly to deliver the first Signatures in USA. After all US Signature (maybe 1,100-1,200 cars) Canada Signature are up for delivery with maybe 40-45 cars. Europe Signatures are next with around 500 cars.
Depending on difficulties to get Model X certified/approved in different countries/regions (Canada, Norway, EU for example) and depending on feed back from already delivered Model X, Tesla might start to produce some General Production cars for US before all Signatures outside US are being sent away/shipped. Some General Production cars in USA will probably be delivered before all Signature Model X are delivered in Europe because of the lag from finished production to delivered car. Question is how many General Production Model X will get delivered before all Signature cars have been delivered?
I hope (because i have reserved Signature #588 in Europe) that all Signatures are delivered this year. I'm not certain about it but hopeful. All Signatures are only 1 600-1 700 cars but if European cars are shipped in December they might not get delivered until 2016.
Depending on difficulties to get Model X certified/approved in different countries/regions (Canada, Norway, EU for example) and depending on feed back from already delivered Model X, Tesla might start to produce some General Production cars for US before all Signatures outside US are being sent away/shipped. Some General Production cars in USA will probably be delivered before all Signature Model X are delivered in Europe because of the lag from finished production to delivered car. Question is how many General Production Model X will get delivered before all Signature cars have been delivered?
I hope (because i have reserved Signature #588 in Europe) that all Signatures are delivered this year. I'm not certain about it but hopeful. All Signatures are only 1 600-1 700 cars but if European cars are shipped in December they might not get delivered until 2016.
felixtb
RsEU502,Sp+14274,XpEUSig4
don't expect any EU cars before 2016. we cannot forget that the first EU model Ss were delivered about a year after the first in the U.S. True, now the company is bigger and has much more experience but still, this is a major new undertaking. I bet on late spring 2016 for my delivery..... although I really wish you would be right....
don't expect any EU cars before 2016. we cannot forget that the first EU model Ss were delivered about a year after the first in the U.S. True, now the company is bigger and has much more experience but still, this is a major new undertaking. I bet on late spring 2016 for my delivery..... although I really wish you would be right....
Tesla was not really in the European market at the time Model S was introduced. If you go by Model S time frame, Model X would not be delivered i Australia until 2018...
So at my place of work I am responsible for taking an automation online these days for several SW products. What we will do, after several weeks of testing and recycle in test environments, is to take 1 product online then sit back and monitor for a few days to see if end to end requests go through the system and close out OK. Then we take the rest of he products online...
I can see Tesla using a similar strategy. Produce the first 10-50 cars for founders and/or early sig holders in late July/early August and wait for a week or two. Collect feedback from those customers (not for design changes, too late for that, but for quality), analyze the metrics of the manufacturing process and if everything is OK build the next 100-200 for California before ramping to 1k per week by October for the US.
I expect 4-5k X for 2015 and my minimum is 55k total.
I can see Tesla using a similar strategy. Produce the first 10-50 cars for founders and/or early sig holders in late July/early August and wait for a week or two. Collect feedback from those customers (not for design changes, too late for that, but for quality), analyze the metrics of the manufacturing process and if everything is OK build the next 100-200 for California before ramping to 1k per week by October for the US.
I expect 4-5k X for 2015 and my minimum is 55k total.
felixtb
RsEU502,Sp+14274,XpEUSig4
It was certainly in the EU market as much as the U.S. Market. Bought my roadster from a real tesla store in Zurich already at the end of 2010 and I was certainly not the first. That store I think opened in mid 2010. And there was a previous London store and allready the Munich and I believe Frankfurt stores..... So I am not quite sure what you mean.......
It was certainly in the EU market as much as the U.S. Market. Bought my roadster from a real tesla store in Zurich already at the end of 2010 and I was certainly not the first. That store I think opened in mid 2010. And there was a previous London store and allready the Munich and I believe Frankfurt stores..... So I am not quite sure what you mean.......
Less than 570 Roadster was sold in whole Europe until Model S was presented in June 2012. Norway probably sold about the same amount of Model S during the last 2 weeks in March this year as Roadster sold total in whole Europe for years. Many people still say that Tesla is not really in Europe because several big countries in Europe does not even have a Tesla Service Center. However, Tesla sells more than 2 order of magnitude more Model S today in Europe than it ever sold Roadster in Europe.
felixtb
RsEU502,Sp+14274,XpEUSig4
we are really on the model X pages here but by your definition tesla was not present in the U.S. either so this still comes back to my same argument TESLA took a long time to ramp production on the S and they wanted to satisfy the U.S. market first and then homologate for the EU which will probably be the same with the X and therefore you, and I, will still probably have to wait until spring or even late spring next year until we see our Xes. And I would certainly love to be wrong but............ i highly doubt it..... at least as an earliest time frame.
we are really on the model X pages here but by your definition tesla was not present in the U.S. either so this still comes back to my same argument TESLA took a long time to ramp production on the S and they wanted to satisfy the U.S. market first and then homologate for the EU which will probably be the same with the X and therefore you, and I, will still probably have to wait until spring or even late spring next year until we see our Xes. And I would certainly love to be wrong but............ i highly doubt it..... at least as an earliest time frame.
I have not said anything about Teslas status in US, only that some other people might consider that Tesla as a niche. What I mean is that you can not apply history of Model S introduction in US and Europe to Model X. Tesla is not the same company today as it was June 2012 and it was still another company in 2008 then Roadster was introduced. Not that many cars was sold in the first 6 months after Tesla Roadster was introduced. A lot more (compared to Tesla Roadster) Model S was sold the first 6 months after it's introduction but it still dwarfed by the delivery numbers each month of Model S right now. Model X uses the same platform as Model S making it much easier to increase the production rate of Model X compared to Model S back in 2012.
I am pretty confident that Tesla will be able to deliver 5,000 Model X this year, only bigger problems with the construction might delay that. I hope all Signatures will get prioritized before Standard Production but I do think some US Model X Standard Production cars will get delivered before European Signature. Question is how many will it be before the European Signatures? Canadian Signatures will get released pretty fast I think and the RHD Signatures to UK will be the last Signature deliveries.
Homologation was certainly part of the regional delays the first time around. Since they are keeping things so close to the vest on the X, they may want to reduce leaks and not even start the process until the X is revealed and shipping. It took months to get Canadian approval last time around.
felixtb
RsEU502,Sp+14274,XpEUSig4
In the Oslo Q&A 2014, Elon told us that the first X in Europa would arive around 2-3 months after US. 2 of those months would be shipping.
The Model S was a different store, needed a new charging port, chargers.... and different modifikasjoner for EU marked.
This job is done.
The Model S was a different store, needed a new charging port, chargers.... and different modifikasjoner for EU marked.
This job is done.
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