I Decided Not To Order the Discounted FSD Option - Here's Why? Agree?

[lencap]

Struggling with what to do. Comments welcome. I bought the Autopilot upgrade for $2K, and it installed last night. Not sure about FSD. I appreciate the "vaporware" comments, and the concern about whether or not the current M3 cameras/circuit boards will be sufficient to be truly FSD. The $3K price is attractive, especially given the higher prices next week, but I'm not convinced that the FSD features are worth it.

I had the EAP trial last year when I bought my car, found that all I really liked/used were the TACC (now part of the $2K Autopilot purchase), and the occasional use of AutoSteer on the highway (also part of the $2K package), which I found mildly annoying since I had to grip and move the wheel every two minutes or so. I liked (a lot) that when the car was engaging the AutoPilot it would bring itself to a complete stop if the car in front of me stopped. That's the main benefit of AutoPilot to me - full stopping if I'm distracted and traffic stops in front of me. All of these features are part of my $2K autopilot purchase. Autoparking with FSD - never used it, likely won't be a big deal for me. Summon - not useful to me and not something I'd use. NoA - during my EAP trail with NoA it was not very reliable - jerking around cars, then cutting back into the original lane; getting confused often when exiting highways, or at complicated interchanges; inaccurate and sometimes scary rapid movement when confused by bicycle lane markings, etc. I didn't trust that the car would be safe using FSD, and even if it were, I'd still have to keep my hands on the wheel and provide inputs every two minutes.

Then the question arises as to whether or not the current cameras and circuit board (even V3) are up to true FSD. So, despite the greatly reduced $3K price I don't think I'm missing much by passing on this option. Seems to me that FSD is still a future product. By then Tesla may have all new battery packs, greater range, and other improvements, at which point it may be better to just upgrade to a newer car with all the benefits of evolutionary change and advancement. Getting FSD now seems like buying an upgraded computer 6 years ago with top quality specs to make it "future proof" only to find that the next generation of chips/memory/etc were far better than what I bought, and I wound up paying top dollar for something that wasn't able to use the power when I bought it, and quickly became obsolete as technology dramatically improved.

Am I missing something by not getting the $3K FSD now?

 

[EVDRVN]

There is more fear about missing out on the discount then there is reason. I assume you read the many threads on this topic as this really belongs there. I think you answered your question.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Struggling with what to do. Comments welcome. I bought the Autopilot upgrade for $2K, and it installed last night. Not sure about FSD. I appreciate the "vaporware" comments, and the concern about whether or not the current M3 cameras/circuit boards will be sufficient to be truly FSD. The $3K price is attractive, especially given the higher prices next week, but I'm not convinced that the FSD features are worth it.

I had the EAP trial last year when I bought my car, found that all I really liked/used were the TACC (now part of the $2K Autopilot purchase), and the occasional use of AutoSteer on the highway (also part of the $2K package), which I found mildly annoying since I had to grip and move the wheel every two minutes or so. I liked (a lot) that when the car was engaging the AutoPilot it would bring itself to a complete stop if the car in front of me stopped. That's the main benefit of AutoPilot to me - full stopping if I'm distracted and traffic stops in front of me. All of these features are part of my $2K autopilot purchase. Autoparking with FSD - never used it, likely won't be a big deal for me. Summon - not useful to me and not something I'd use. NoA - during my EAP trail with NoA it was not very reliable - jerking around cars, then cutting back into the original lane; getting confused often when exiting highways, or at complicated interchanges; inaccurate and sometimes scary rapid movement when confused by bicycle lane markings, etc. I didn't trust that the car would be safe using FSD, and even if it were, I'd still have to keep my hands on the wheel and provide inputs every two minutes.

Then the question arises as to whether or not the current cameras and circuit board (even V3) are up to true FSD. So, despite the greatly reduced $3K price I don't think I'm missing much by passing on this option. Seems to me that FSD is still a future product. By then Tesla may have all new battery packs, greater range, and other improvements, at which point it may be better to just upgrade to a newer car with all the benefits of evolutionary change and advancement. Getting FSD now seems like buying an upgraded computer 6 years ago with top quality specs to make it "future proof" only to find that the next generation of chips/memory/etc were far better than what I bought, and I wound up paying top dollar for something that wasn't able to use the power when I bought it, and quickly became obsolete as technology dramatically improved.

Am I missing something by not getting the $3K FSD now?

Sounds like you have already made up your mind. If it won't work for you or be useful then it doesn't make sense for you. However, I think you missed one very major thing on the positive side of getting FSD now. If and when the FSD features are fully realized, with or without regulatory approval, (and I think they will sooner than many expect), I don't think it will ever be this inexpensive again. On the contrary, imagine the demand when it is proven that true FSD is a reality. They could easily charge whatever they want and people will gladly fork over the cost.

However, the choice is an individual one. For me, the potential for FSD was the number one factor for me choosing the car. With a family history of deteriorating health issues, I do not want to ever be a burden to my family. My independence is crucial to me so for me, this car was a no brainer. Your mileage may vary.

Dan

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

To me it all comes down to Tesla's commitment to do the HW3 upgrade for those of us with FSD.

The Hardware upgrade is probably more meaningful than the actual feature set under FSD.

Why?

Because Tesla will mostly likely focus all their software development efforts on HW3, and they might not spend a whole lot of time focusing on features that don't involve HW3. Now this is most definitely a FOMO kind of thing as I can't tell you what those features might be. It could be something valuable like an even cooler version of Sentry Mode. Or it could be something as silly as FART 2.0.

In terms of computer analogies I think a better comparison is the Car+Sensor Suite is the computer, and the AP computer is the graphics cards. It's not uncommon to swap out the graphics card every few years, and the computer every 6 years.

So going from HW2.5 to HW3.0 is akin to a graphics card swap out. The latest Tweet from Elon Musk says that all FSD owners will get this upgrade as part of the FSD purchase.

In terms of FSD I completely agree with the OP in that the current sensor suite (cameras, radar, etc) might not be enough to have things work really well even with a more advanced AP computer.

The other risk with everything under FSD is it's really advanced L2 driving, and we don't know how far Tesla can go with this before there are accidents. Where people rely too much on FSD without realizing that it's not ready to be trusted. If there are too many accidents the NHTSA could pressure Tesla to shut the whole thing down, or put such nanny restrictions on things that they have little to no value.

Pretty much everything under FSD either hasn't even been started on or doesn't work that well. That's probably going to change with the Smart Summons update. But, we won't know till then how well it works. So it's going to take at least another 6-12 months to even begin to get some quality features for that $3K.

The other decision factor is how long one intends to keep the car. I wouldn't bother getting the upgrade unless I intended on keeping the car for years (3-4 years).

It's going to be at least 1-2 years to reach some stopping point (where anything past what we have then requires some different hardware suite), and 2 years to enjoy what we have at the time.

It's so much easier to decided on AP as it is what it is from day 1. What's in it works reasonably well, and TACC is worth $2K itself.

Oh, one last thing. The Model Y reveal is going to be important to watch to see if any details get leaked about the Sensor Suite on it. If it has a more advanced Sensor suite then perhaps the FSD option isn't such a good idea.

 

[TampaRich]

I’m thinking about resale value. If I pay for FSD now, I would think that it would hold its value in the future, or possibly gain value if the program is successful.

 

[EVDRVN]

I’m thinking about resale value. If I pay for FSD now, I would think that it would hold its value in the future, or possibly gain value if the program is successful.

I doubt it because by the tine anything happens HW3.2 will be announced. It's an iphone on wheels.

 

[lencap]

Thanks for the comments and different perspectives. Many valid points/comments, but the more I consider my driving style, locations and future use, the more I believe that the $2K AutoPilot that I bought will be all that I need.

 

[gnumeric]

I think the FSD upgrade is absolutely worth it for people who didn’t buy EAP since you actually get something right now for it AND whatever features they add in the future. Summon and Autopark are kind of gimmicky, but Navigate on Autopilot has been great so far and automatic lane change is a must for me. It would drive me nuts to have to keep disengaging/re-engaging Autopilot every time I want to change lanes.

Going forward, I think all new features they add will fall into the FSD category. People will just AP will get left behind. Especially when HW3 comes out and Elon has confirmed that FSD will get HW3 upgrade.

I think it is one hell of a discount for FSD at $3k. That’s cheaper than buying it pre-delivery, so I can’t imagine it ever gets cheaper than it is now. After this discount expires, it goes back up to $7k.

 

[TampaRich]

I doubt it because by the tine anything happens HW3.2 will be announced. It's an iphone on wheels.

Sure but a 2018 M3 with FSD has gotta be with more than an M3 without.

 

[EVDRVN]

Sure but a 2018 M3 with FSD has gotta be with more than an M3 without.

And a Toyota tacoma with none of that holds the value better than any vehicle. In the EV space it does not matter as much. There is already a new updated version of the hardware.

 

[Uncle Paul]

I believe that the value of the 10X faster upgraded computer will be even more valuable than the added feature sets.

It should make everything work smoother and more accurate. Elon says they need to do all sorts of gyrations to use all the data stream coming from the cameras and sensors now. With a faster and custom designed chip everything should work more efficiently.

Worth $2k for the chip upgrade alone. Less nags would be a blessing as well.

 

[Barklikeadog]

Then the question arises as to whether or not the current cameras and circuit board (even V3) are up to true FSD.

no
check back in 10 years
hth

 

[Glamisduner]

5k it's a steal since you get eap plus future promises. And your saved 3k by not buying it with the car.

I bought fsd for 2k, but it's a gamble. Hardware 3 should help resale though so I just did it anyways.

 

[TampaRich]

Just put down the 2k for FSD upgrade. Putting my trust in the Tesla team to come through with something over my next 4 years of ownership.

 

[jtdiddy]

I think the FSD upgrade is absolutely worth it for people who didn’t buy EAP since you actually get something right now for it AND whatever features they add in the future. Summon and Autopark are kind of gimmicky, but Navigate on Autopilot has been great so far and automatic lane change is a must for me. It would drive me nuts to have to keep disengaging/re-engaging Autopilot every time I want to change lanes.

Going forward, I think all new features they add will fall into the FSD category. People will just AP will get left behind. Especially when HW3 comes out and Elon has confirmed that FSD will get HW3 upgrade.

I think it is one hell of a discount for FSD at $3k. That’s cheaper than buying it pre-delivery, so I can’t imagine it ever gets cheaper than it is now. After this discount expires, it goes back up to $7k.

Yea agreed. For me, it was a no brainer to get EAP & FSD for $5k before price goes back up, which would be at $12k. It basically future proofs the car for a long time and way better resale value as i intend to keep my X for 5 yrs at least before i consider selling it.

 

[gnuarm]

I'm ok with risking $2,000 on ever getting FSD. I wasn't happy not being able to buy it online without changing the address at my credit card company first. I also didn't like paying high sales tax to who knows where. None of my addresses and have an 8% sales tax.