None of us can know the amount of factory, supply chain, etc. knowledge and tooling is transferrable to the 3. I would imagine some things transfer directly, some things are reinventions, and many are in-between. We also don't know how much of the re-tooling and reinvention is already done or underway. For all we know, a corner of the factory could have been doing pilot retooling for 12 months or more. I guess many people love speculation, and that's fine, but let's couch it as speculation vs. absolute fact. What needs to be done is pretty factual: development of car, supply chain, manufacturing process at scale, regulatory, etc. How far they are, what they've learned from past efforts, whether they will make it by what date? Speculation. Personally, I speculate that they have learned a ton from S and X, and are further along than we think, but there will be hiccups they don't expect causing 12 +/- 6 month delay to initial shipments, and push volume delivery into 2019. But that's speculation.