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Sure... but that's not even close to what's required to support the levels of consumption our economy requires.

Yes, it will be small fraction of society. But it wont happen by tomorrow.

Self-driving trucks alone threaten ~2M 'high' paid trucking jobs.

I already agreed about menial tasks.

How much longer do you think this trend can be sustained?
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Certain kind of changes do not require revolution. As I said, I see some forms of capitalism surviving for pretty long time before being actually replaced with some kind of post-scarcity economy.

I do not expect things like UBI be practical until technology advances enough that certain extremely costly services (like healthcare) will become cheap. Only then things like post-scarcity society can become even theoretically possible. I estimate few hundred years for complete transition, assuming we will survive current nice Great Filter of climate change.
 
I estimate few hundred years for complete transition, assuming we will survive current nice Great Filter of climate change.

So we went from flying <1000' to flying to the moon in ~66 years. And a computer the size of a room to one >1M times more powerful and >1M times smaller in ~40 years but it's going to take 'a few hundred years'?

The pace of improvement is accelerating. Have you seen an amazon fulfillment center? Those Kiva bots aren't programed to retrieve those items... they're programmed to LEARN how to retrieve those items. By ~2030 we'll need ~10 consumers per worker. If labor and wages are still locked... where do we get the other 9 consumers?

 
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So we went from flying <1000' to flying to the moon in ~66 years. And a computer the size of a room to one >1M times more powerful and >1M times smaller in ~40 years but it's going to take 'a few hundred years'?

The pace of improvement is accelerating. Have you seen an amazon fulfillment center? Those Kiva bots aren't programed to retrieve those items... they're programmed to LEARN how to retrieve those items. By ~2030 we'll need ~10 consumers per worker. If labor and wages are still locked... where do we get the other 9 consumers?
I guess the AI robots will have to be paid, get time off, vacations, etc. Just have to think about what the AI robots will want to buy.
 
By ~2030 we'll need ~10 consumers per worker. If labor and wages are still locked... where do we get the other 9 consumers?
I keep reading your posts on this subject but I'm not gaining any insight. I may just be too old to accept a new idea.

Certainly to the extent that robots are willing to work for free, goods can be eventually offered for the cost of the resources involved. The idea of making consumers by giving them money just sounds like money without value and consumers without motivation to work. I'm also having trouble thinking about that type of future without thinking about the Pixar movie Wall-E
 
I keep reading your posts on this subject but I'm not gaining any insight. I may just be too old to accept a new idea.

Certainly to the extent that robots are willing to work for free, goods can be eventually offered for the cost of the resources involved. The idea of making consumers by giving them money just sounds like money without value and consumers without motivation to work. I'm also having trouble thinking about that type of future without thinking about the Pixar movie Wall-E

You can kind of think of money as being like a photon. If it's not moving it doesn't exist. Income from work is the primary way consumers get purchasing power. If that gets significantly diminished (which has already started) we need another route to get purchasing power to consumers. The great depression was caused by the flow of $$$ being disrupted.
 
So we went from flying <1000' to flying to the moon in ~66 years.
Non-sequitur.

And a computer the size of a room to one >1M times more powerful and >1M times smaller in ~40 years
Non-sequitur.

Only point of it seems to be you handwaving "these things happened fast (relative to what?) so that one thing will happen fast too".

I can't also help notice that you are ignoring completely that after these jumps we as humans tend to rest on laurels, taking our sweet time before another big jump. We landed on Moon 6 times and then what? We abandoned it for white elephant. Only now there are realistically sounding noises about coming back, maybe. Computers made with current tech also hit hard wall and workarounds like multiple cores can work only for so long.

but it's going to take 'a few hundred years'?
Full transition? Yes. There will be some wars, revolutions and deaths of millions on that way, of course, since I don't think transition from current capitalistic economy to some future post-scarcity economy will be painless. Or fast.

Oh, just in case: UBI is not post-scarcity economy. It would be probably intermediate early step ridden with serious problems (what will stop people from just demanding more money for services or rent, diminishing value of UBI giveaway to almost nothing?).

Actual post-scarcity economy will require technological progress in multiple areas way, way beyond what we have in works now. As I noted above, technology tends to have jumps and then periods of stagnation. And I am of opinion that actual post-scarcity will need many jumps like that. In row. In each of areas. This is why I estimate few centuries.

The pace of improvement is accelerating. Have you seen an amazon fulfillment center? Those Kiva bots aren't programed to retrieve those items... they're programmed to LEARN how to retrieve those items. By ~2030 we'll need ~10 consumers per worker. If labor and wages are still locked... where do we get the other 9 consumers?
I won't deny that beginning of transition will happen in our lifetime. In fact, it probably already started. I am pointing out that "Kiva bots, therefore post-scarcity" is errorenous logic.

I'm also having trouble thinking about that type of future without thinking about the Pixar movie Wall-E
Yes, it is one possible variant of future. There are better, there are worse.
 
Non-sequitur.

LOL; That doesn't mean what you think it means. The 'math' that is going to necessitate a redefining of our economy is the exponential increase of 'doing more with less'. The mismatch between what we're capable of producing and what the workers doing the producing are able to purchase through wages is increasing as fewer workers produce more.... that's a problem for maintaining a functioning economy.

This... this is a problem.... and it's getting worse.

Screen Shot 2019-07-16 at 11.38.30 AM.png
 
The Surprising Public Opinion Trends Behind the Green New Deal

And then, in stepped the Green New Deal. It revealed something extraordinary. According to a Yale survey, 81 percent of registered voters say they would support the Green New Deal. And 64 percent of Republicans say they would support it. Other polls have shown similar levels of support.

So what does this reveal about how climate plays among the electorate? And is there a disconnect between what people want and what policymakers think they want?
 
The Surprising Public Opinion Trends Behind the Green New Deal

And then, in stepped the Green New Deal. It revealed something extraordinary. According to a Yale survey, 81 percent of registered voters say they would support the Green New Deal. And 64 percent of Republicans say they would support it. Other polls have shown similar levels of support.

So what does this reveal about how climate plays among the electorate? And is there a disconnect between what people want and what policymakers think they want?

This was recently discussed on 'The Interchange' podcast. There are two mitigating factors before anyone gets too excited...

1) The questions were apparently phrased to avoid 'climate change' and focus on 'clean energy'.

2) This poll was before fox news told their sheep what to think about the GND....
 
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This was recently discussed on the 'Inter-change' podcast. There are two mitigating factors before anyone gets too excited...

1) The questions were apparently phrased to avoid 'climate change' and focus on 'clean energy'.

2) This poll was before fox news told their sheep what to think about the GND....
They seem to be linking it to "s**hole" countries in their latest attacks.
 
Climate Change Will Be A Slow-Motion, Multi-Generational Train Wreck. We Should Talk About That. | CleanTechnica

Might humanity come to accept the wisdom of Abraham Maslow and strive for self-fulfillment instead of self-aggrandizement? The most vital piece of the puzzle is constructing a post-consumer society in which everyone is a valued member of society and free to contribute to the human experience without being consigned to a life of hunger and poverty. Surely humans, whose scientific name means “wise person,” should aspire to nothing less

ge. Guess what, people — eating beef and jetting around the world may be luxuries the human race can no longer afford if we are to keep our planet habitable.

Society must accept that such measures can no longer be avoided. Consumers are responsible for acting as far as they can. But they must also empower their deputies to regulate what is needed. Anyone who sees freedom restricted here is right. But there is no right to freedom to buy everything you can afford. This view has always been irresponsible, anti-social — and in the face of global warming, it is at an end. Of course, no eco-dictatorship may be built. But even in a country with democracy and market economy, the freedom of the individual stops where the livelihoods of all are threatened.

In other words, climate change will require the end of the “Me Generation,” the selfie-mad masses who take bazillions of photos of themselves but never turn the camera outward to see the magnificence of the world around them. It will require the abandonment of leaders who think governing is all about them, who cavil about the size of the audience with no thought about the content of the message.

It also means the end of consumerism, the disease that infects all of humanity with the craving for bigger houses, faster cars, and more things. Of course, our entire economic system is built on the acquisitive urges of our species, so breaking our bad habits will be painful.

Maslow's hierarchy of needs
Credit: Chiquo (CC BY-SA 4.0)

But might there be a bright tomorrow that awaits us if we mend our ways? Might humanity come to accept the wisdom of Abraham Maslow and strive for self-fulfillment instead of self-aggrandizement? The most vital piece of the puzzle is constructing a post-consumer society in which everyone is a valued member of society and free to contribute to the human experience without being consigned to a life of hunger and poverty. Surely humans, whose scientific name means “wise person,” should aspire to nothing less.

Talk Among Yourselves
So, how do we begin? A new study published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences by researchers at Yale University finds that talking about climate change with family and friends is a powerful tool for confronting the climate denial promoted by fossil fuel apologists. The study finds that such discussions help those close to you to learn more facts about the climate crisis, which in turn leads to greater understanding and concern about the issue, according to a report by ThinkProgress.

Matthew Goldberg, a Yale social psychologist and lead author of the story, tells the Los Angeles Times that talking more about climate change is “massively important, particularly because we are not doing it enough.” The study found that many people do not realize that 97% of all climate scientists agree human activity is a primary driver of climate change. ThinkProgress recommends this simple way of getting that point across in conversation: “We are as certain that humans are responsible for recent climate change as we are that cigarettes are dangerous to your health.”

In an email to ThinkProgress, noted climate scientist Micheal Mann said the study “casts doubt on claims in some quarters that the climate change issue has become too ideologically-driven for facts to matter. [It] confirms what might seem common sense. The more people actually understand about the science of climate change, the more they are likely to accept the scientific consensus — that climate change is real, human-caused, and a threat to human civilization.”

Robert Brulle, an environmental sociologist, tells ThinkProgress, “Meaningful discussions and dialogue is how humans learn. This study clearly shows that non-polarized discussions within a trusted social network can lead to increased understanding and acceptance of climate science. Engaging in, rather than avoiding, climate change discussions is something that we should all be doing.”

“In other words,” says Joe Romm, senior editor of ThinkProgress, “talking about the climate crisis to family and friends motivates them to learn about the overwhelming scientific consensus that global warming is happening and humans are the cause — along with other key facts. Increased understanding of the consensus in turns leads to an increase in understanding and concern about the climate.”

So go forth. Spread the word. The climate crisis is real. And it will take all of us working together to deal with it effectively. Just buying a Tesla or recycling your plastic bags won’t be enough to stave off calamity. We need leaders who understand the gravity and the magnitude of the problem if we are to have any chance of addressing the multiple challenges of climate change effectively.

In the final analysis, if the people will lead, their leaders will follow. Make your voice heard. The planet you save might be your own.







Steve Hanley Steve writes about the interface between technology and sustainability from his home in Rhode Island and anywhere else the Singularity may lead him. His motto is, "Life is not measured by how many breaths we take but by the number of moments that take our breath away!"
 
But how do you pay for it? MMT

This Economic Theory Could Be Used To Pay For The Green New Deal

In doing so, she shined a spotlight on a once-obscure brand of economics known as "modern monetary theory," or MMT.
The New York Democrat argued that ambitious programs can easily be financed through deficit spending.
He says MMT offers better financial forecasts and helped him understand why interest rates in the U.S. have stayed low, despite growing government deficits.

In the 1990s, Montier and many others were convinced that Japan's rising government debt would drive up borrowing costs. It didn't.

He says MMT offers better financial forecasts and helped him understand why interest rates in the U.S. have stayed low, despite growing government deficits.
"It cost both me and my clients or anyone who was stupid enough to follow me money," Montier recalled. "It was one of the worst trade positions I have ever suggested in my entire life."
 
Sounds like the Green New Deal...

‘Heat, Greed and Human Need': Review - Resilience

Heat, Greed, and Human Need takes this focus and puts the attainment of human needs in the context of the climate crisis, given the scientific realities and lived experience faced by communities around the world. He does so by explaining how both rising heat (due to climate change) and resultant challenges in meeting human needs have their root cause in the greed embedded in – and exacerbated by – the current economic system: ‘neoliberalism’. This is an economic agenda characterized by belief in the superiority of markets (especially when spread across global production networks, and when the financial sector flourishes) and a disparaging approach to the role of government and collective action.

Instead, the task is to change the pattern of consumption and ensure that what the ‘North’ consumes is within a corridor of minimum and maximum standards. This requires fundamental transformation of almost all aspects of the economy, including a need to:
  • Invest in renewable energy and energy networks
  • Transform communications
  • Retrofit buildings for energy efficiency
  • Regenerate natural resources
  • Re-examine ideas of investment, productivity, profit and growth to align with social needs and contribution
 
Wait, 40 percent of white evangelicals support the Green New Deal?

In the 2016 presidential election, 81 percent of white evangelical Christians voted to elect President Trump. But this core base of the Republican Party, despite Fox News’ efforts, is more receptive to large-scale action to combat climate change than you might expect.

In fact, Christians from a wide range of denominations are calling for action. Catholics are building solar farms and talking to farmers about global warming.

But it’s the openness to action among white evangelicals that might be the most surprising. Some 40 percent of white evangelicals support the progressive climate-justice-jobs resolution introduced by Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York City and Senator Ed Markey of Massachusetts, according to a recent poll conducted by NPR, PBS Newshour, and Marist.

So what’s behind this budding momentum? Christians might just be getting swept along with the rest of the American public, who are increasingly grasping the idea that humans are warming the climate. “Americans believe climate change is real, and that number goes up every single month,” GOP pollster Frank Luntz told the Senate climate committee during testimony on Thursday.
 
Wait, 40 percent of white evangelicals support the Green New Deal?

In the 2016 presidential election, 81 percent of white evangelical Christians voted to elect President Trump. But this core base of the Republican Party, despite Fox News’ efforts, is more receptive to large-scale action to combat climate change than you might expect.

In fact, Christians from a wide range of denominations are calling for action. Catholics are building solar farms and talking to farmers about global warming.

But it’s the openness to action among white evangelicals that might be the most surprising. Some 40 percent of white evangelicals support the progressive climate-justice-jobs resolution introduced by Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York City and Senator Ed Markey of Massachusetts, according to a recent poll conducted by NPR, PBS Newshour, and Marist.

So what’s behind this budding momentum? Christians might just be getting swept along with the rest of the American public, who are increasingly grasping the idea that humans are warming the climate. “Americans believe climate change is real, and that number goes up every single month,” GOP pollster Frank Luntz told the Senate climate committee during testimony on Thursday.
So their political affiliation is what will be the downfall of humanity? Joy.....................
 
So their political affiliation is what will be the downfall of humanity? Joy.....................
I think this is the operative passage.

So what’s behind this budding momentum? Christians might just be getting swept along with the rest of the American public, who are increasingly grasping the idea that humans are warming the climate. “Americans believe climate change is real, and that number goes up every single month,” GOP pollster Frank Luntz told the Senate climate committee during testimony on Thursday
 
Kamala Harris and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Release Climate ‘Equity’ Plan Kamala Harris and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Release Climate ‘Equity’ Plan

WASHINGTON — Senator Kamala Harris of California and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York on Monday unveiled legislation aimed at ensuring that climate change plans benefit low-income communities. They described the measure as a key element of the Democrats’ Green New Deal.

The bill would also establish an independent Office of Climate and Environmental Justice Accountability to represent vulnerable communities, and create a position of senior adviser on climate justice at “all relevant agencies.”
 
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Kamala Harris and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Release Climate ‘Equity’ Plan Kamala Harris and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Release Climate ‘Equity’ Plan

WASHINGTON — Senator Kamala Harris of California and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York on Monday unveiled legislation aimed at ensuring that climate change plans benefit low-income communities. They described the measure as a key element of the Democrats’ Green New Deal.

The bill would also establish an independent Office of Climate and Environmental Justice Accountability to represent vulnerable communities, and create a position of senior adviser on climate justice at “all relevant agencies.”

Shows the green new deal is more about socialism than it is about climate change. If you really thought that CO2 was going to be such a disaster you would not be pushing all the the socialist and excluding nuclear energy.
 
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