General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Droulas]

What do you think it is?

Speculating for fun- it might be a very limited "collectors" edition vehicle. Because of the following reasons:

• The type of the show (from spending literally 2min on their website)
• It must be a very high margin vehicle, or a vehicle that will draw a lot of attention from "collectors" (that are usually also very rich and can possibly invest in TSLA)
• The car can't be a model that will be mass produced, because right now TSLA can't manage to produce enough
• It is not a huge "investment". It doesn't have to be super performance car (Model S type performance "only"), so the ascent will be put on design. I can imagine Franz doing it as a "bonus project for him" with total freedom to express himself (without considering easy of production, etc.)
• The Roadster 2 is "old news". SpaceX Package version is purely performance oriented (so no "real" visual difference with the "regular" one), while the type of the show appears to be more towards aesthetics.

Maybe this?

Exclusive first look at Tesla Model S and Model X interior refresh: going spartan like Model 3

 

[Matias]

I’m guessing, like others, it will be some sort of special edition of the roadster. Only other thing I can think of is a demo of the next refresh of the model S, although unlikely.

Revealing Model S refresh now would Osborne current sales and jeopardise Q3 and Q4.

 

[Matias]

Maybe this?

Exclusive first look at Tesla Model S and Model X interior refresh: going spartan like Model 3

See my previous post. This would hurt Q3 and Q4 sales. As a matter of fact, this could turn Q3 to negative eps. I’m 100% sure, Tesla won’t take that risk.

 

[PaulRocket]

Elecktrek: “Tesla at 34,500 model 3’s produced this quarter as of this afternoon per ‘extremely reliable source’” : teslainvestorsclub

According to Electrek, so far Tesla has produced 34,500 Model 3s this quarter. If they continue at this pace they will produce 51,750 3s and hit the lower part of their guidance. Since the plan is to get up to 6,000 cars per week this quarter I would expect the actual number to be higher. Hitting guidance should be good

 

[Buddyroe]

Well I went out to Chinese food last night and my waiter saw my tesla shirt.

him: do you work for Tesla?
me: no, but I support them.
him: well I wish I had shorted them at 350.

And you should have said, "well, if you had BOUGHT them at $50, you may not be a waiter right now."

 

[shlokavica22]

I would actually expect the SpaceX package to have a heavy emphasis on bad-ass aesthetics.

History shows, no really big visual differences between versions in particular range.
It might be driven by financial/manufacturing point of view, but I have a feeling it is a marketing/brand choice. We will see soon enough.

 

[winfield100]

My brain says Next-Gen Roadster. My heart says Cyborg Dragon.

 

[shlokavica22]

Yeah, the more I think about it, the more sense it makes to me.

Roadster 2 will be purely performance monster, blowing away any competition from the traditional brands (Ferrari, etc). It's price suggests that the target market are people who already can afford Model S with ease.
Model 3 is the vehicle aligned with Tesla's mission- design and manufactured with the idea to sell it as a mass vehicle to the middle class.

There is no vehicle for the really filthy reach. Why the f*** not? The brand is so strong and desirable.
I can see 1 niche model per year or so, VERY limited editions. Say <100 cars, with a price tag > $1M. Aesthetic marvels treated as a fine art for collectors. Model S performance "only" will be enough, because the accent is on exclusivity.

It will strengthen the brand image even more and will bring a good amount of $.

It also explains why they choose this particular venue.

 

[Zaxxon]

Methinks TMC unbounded optimism is coming out again. It'll be a Roadster 2. Maybe with the SpaceX package or something else newly revealed, but it's got to be the Roadster.

 

[JRP3]

Yes, we've only seen the "base" model Roadster so far. I expect the performance version with even more insane specs.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Apparently one bottleneck at the moment is delivering 3s to customers and adding more personnel and centres to address it requires more OPEX. So I thought, why not send some 3s to Europe. It would not need new opex that much. Some 10 000 3s could easily (I think) be distributed all over Europe. Tesla could completely empty model 3 delivery pipeline to Europe.

But then I realised, NA Model 3s are not compatible with european superchargers.

This is a great idea, and it probably wouldn’t take much to switch the charge port. I’m not sure why Tesla didn’t start with delivering 5,000 Performance Model 3’s across the world for 40 percent gross margin, and then move downmarket, which would be in-line with the Master Plan.

 

[mongo]

This is a great idea, and it probably wouldn’t take much to switch the charge port.

I’m not sure why Tesla didn’t start with delivering 5,000 Performance Model 3’s across the world for 40 percent gross margin, and then move downmarket, which would be in-line with the Master Plan.

Even at low volume, they would still need to meet the homologation requirements for countries of import. If they can sell all 3Ps produced without the shipping, translation, and certification hassle, that is less of a head ache for them.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Does this qualify as a "short squeeze of the century?"

Or FSD? Or LA to NYC autonomously?

I agree with you that, more like than not, the surprise will fail to surprise. There is less than likely chance, in my opinion, that the "surprise" may be a Model S/X refresh or something else. Poll results are in-line with this characterization: ValueAnalyst on Twitter

 

[goinfraftw]

Curious: what do people on this forum see in various software upgrade features in the future from Tesla and automakers, in general?

Right now, autopilot and track mode are 2 very interesting features. Feel there's a lot more to happen there that'll increase margins significantly.

 

[22522]

Curious: what do people on this forum see in various software upgrade features in the future from Tesla and automakers, in general?

Right now, autopilot and track mode are 2 very interesting features. Feel there's a lot more to happen there that'll increase margins significantly.

Elon mentioned point to point navigation, like to work and back a few years ago. That has value.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Poll: Model 3 Performance Gross Margin

 

[jkirkwood001]

Yeah, the more I think about it, the more sense it makes to me.

Roadster 2 will be purely performance monster, blowing away any competition from the traditional brands (Ferrari, etc). It's price suggests that the target market are people who already can afford Model S with ease.
Model 3 is the vehicle aligned with Tesla's mission- design and manufactured with the idea to sell it as a mass vehicle to the middle class.

There is no vehicle for the really filthy reach. Why the f*** not? The brand is so strong and desirable.
I can see 1 niche model per year or so, VERY limited editions. Say <100 cars, with a price tag > $1M. Aesthetic marvels treated as a fine art for collectors. Model S performance "only" will be enough, because the accent is on exclusivity.

It will strengthen the brand image even more and will bring a good amount of $.

It also explains why they choose this particular venue.

Nice idea, but goes against Musk's goal for Tesla of sustainable transportation for the masses and the planet. Counter-productive to the mission.

 

[shlokavica22]

Counter-productive to the mission.

How so?

 

[RobStark]

Nice idea, but goes against Musk's goal for Tesla of sustainable transportation for the masses and the planet. Counter-productive to the mission.

Building halo vehicles that keeps the brand highly desirable without spending $3B+ per year on advertising is not counter-productive to the mission.

 

[JRP3]

In fact high margin halo vehicles help sustain the mission.