General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Yggdrasill]

With Pana/Tesla being the largest EV battery manufacturer, how can Jaguar match the cost/kWh buying lower volume from a smaller supplier? That would be a problem even if the packs had the same capacity and chemical mix, but Jag's is bigger and probably used several times the cobalt too.

The i-Pace likely has a cathode with 15-20% cobalt. So compared to a Model 3 (Y?) LR, with 4.5 kg of Cobalt, it should have around 25-35 kg of Cobalt. It still works okay compared to the price. 25-35 kg is still only 2,375-3,325 USD, which is easily covered by the 69,500 USD starting price.

 

[drobchak]

I would like to point out that Tesla is making EVs for 10 years already.

Of course, there is no way Jaguar can beat Tesla`s battery technology. And of course, there is no way to put production costs at the same level as Tesla`s.

Jaguar needs experience. Nobody is trying to compete with Tesla, everybody is trying to not lag too far behind. We must praise Jaguar for effort, they are not so many BEVs on sale now that are not Chinese.

 

[K_Dizzle]

I would like to point out that Tesla is making EVs for 10 years already.

Of course, there is no way Jaguar can beat Tesla`s battery technology. And of course, there is no way to put production costs at the same level as Tesla`s.

Jaguar needs experience. Nobody is trying to compete with Tesla, everybody is trying to not lag too far behind. We must praise Jaguar for effort, they are not so many BEVs on sale now that are not Chinese.

I say we laugh at them the way they laughed at Tesla for the last 15 years.

 

[WarpedOne]

Jaguar, go home.
Try harder!

 

[sweter]

I would like to point out that Tesla is making EVs for 10 years already.

Of course, there is no way Jaguar can beat Tesla`s battery technology. And of course, there is no way to put production costs at the same level as Tesla`s.

Jaguar needs experience. Nobody is trying to compete with Tesla, everybody is trying to not lag too far behind. We must praise Jaguar for effort, they are not so many BEVs on sale now that are not Chinese.

Hasn't one of the main short arguments been that traditional OEM's can build as many EV's as they want, throw money at the problem and overtake Tesla as soon as they want, they just haven't made that decision yet? I guess that proves the point that it's not so easy.

But yea, I agree it's nice to see them trying off and gaining that needed experience to help Tesla's mission. Win win win for everyone.

 

[aubreymcfato]

This review from WIRED UK is far more indulgent on the I-Pace_
Jaguar I-Pace review: a game changer for electric vehicles | WIRED UK

 

[Compton]

This review from WIRED UK is far more indulgent on the I-Pace_
Jaguar I-Pace review: a game changer for electric vehicles | WIRED UK

Seems like a nice car but have I understood it correctly that 1) it has no advanced driver assistance system whatsoever (á la autopilot) and 2) no over-the-air updates? Also I dislike the chaotic console but that's a matter of preference.

 

[winfield100]

What I think Trump cares about is to be seen by the voters of Appalachia as "fighting for them" not necessarily slinging subsidies to coal companies.

The only policy I think Trump truly cares about is tariffs on foreign goods, not even services.

If you look at the reality, of Coal use in the US, 2010 vs 2017, it has dropped 1/3 by the people who use it.
Solar UP from 0.13 to 0.775 !! UP over 500%
Nuclear flat
Hydro flat
wind 0.92 UP to 2.35 !! Up over 250%
Geothermal Flat
Nat Gas 25 to 28
Coal DOWN 21 to 14 ( down 33%)
biomass up
Petroleum flat
It matters NOT what the president says, reality overrules
(note we also waste 2/3 of the energy we produce and transportation wastes 79%) (GO EV's!!)
Energy Flow Charts

 

[Unpilot]

The wasted or rejected energy is really a eye opener in those charts!

 

[dc_h]

This.

I've been saying this since the specs came out and all the lazy jurnos went "ooh" an "a uh over a range that met Tesla's. "Look, this is what we've been saying all along: the big boys wake up, match the range and Tesla is done".

But little did they mention Jag needed a 90kWh battery to match Teslas 75 range. That's not just a red flag from a technology point of view, but from a profitability standpoint as well. With Pana/Tesla being the largest EV battery manufacturer, how can Jaguar match the cost/kWh buying lower volume from a smaller supplier? That would be a problem even if the packs had the same capacity and chemical mix, but Jag's is bigger and probably used several times the cobalt too.

And then we haven't even talked about the I-Pace being more of a Model 3 sized car with 5 seats, so really a Model Y competitor. On paper that's not necessarily a bad strategy, being the Y is still 2 years out. However for that it is overpriced and probably still not profitable.

Wow, 20% performance loss v Tesla and at least 20% cost disadvantage and no charging network.

Could be a good collector car.

 

[bambam4171]

The wasted or rejected energy is really a eye opener in those charts!

And the business case for big batteries!

 

[Zaxxon]

Interesting info on the status of Model 3 reservations based on abused credit card data.

Tesla comments that the data doesn't align, which could mean it's way off or just not 100% accurate. In any event, I don't see this as negative even if accurate. That's still a ton of held reservations just as the car begins to be seen in public in numbers big enough to start generating interest from those not already fans of Tesla.

 

[neroden]

I just want to know what the hell is going on with Tesla Energy and Autonomy. Both have greatly underperformed what I’ve been expecting up to this point.

- Autonomy isn't working yet, which I predicted way back when. It's a much harder problem than Musk thought.
- Tesla Energy output is being diverted almost entirely to Puerto Rico, where there are 11,000 installations in progress right now, and roughly 4.5 GWh of battery production capacity (courtesy a leak) dedicated entirely to Puerto Rico production.

 

[neroden]

The wasted or rejected energy is really a eye opener in those charts!

Yeah. The biggest wastes are in electricity generation (going down as we switch to solar and wind) and in transportation (which will drop as EVs are deployed). The one which has me scratching my head is waste in the industrial sector, which seems to have *risen* since 2010. I'm guessing this is due to better data collection and is not actually an increase in waste.

 

[bambam4171]

Interesting info on the status of Model 3 reservations based on abused credit card data.

Tesla comments that the data doesn't align, which could mean it's way off or just not 100% accurate. In any event, I don't see this as negative even if accurate. That's still a ton of held reservations just as the car begins to be seen in public in numbers big enough to start generating interest from those not already fans of Tesla.

Shorts will have a field day with this not realizing that this will result in a higher average price of Model 3 sold

 

[EinSV]

- Tesla Energy output is being diverted almost entirely to Puerto Rico, where there are 11,000 installations in progress right now, and roughly 4.5 GWh of battery production capacity (courtesy a leak) dedicated entirely to Puerto Rico production.

Can you add any color to that, including timeframe for installation and how credible the info is?

Guidance for 2018 is about 1 GWh total storage so 4.5 GWh could be very significant depending on timing.

 

[neroden]

Source: comment section at electrek, fellow in Reno who is trying not to expose his multiple Gigafactory sources. You decide how credible it is, but for me the numbers matched up with certain other numbers I'd heard long ago, so it makes sense to me.

He has no idea about the financing, and Puerto Rico does have financing issues, so it's quite possible that the revenue won't be booked this year even if the installs are done this year.

 

[EinSV]

Source: comment section at electrek, fellow in Reno who is trying not to expose his multiple Gigafactory sources. You decide how credible it is, but for me the numbers matched up with certain other numbers I'd heard long ago, so it makes sense to me.

He has no idea about the financing, and Puerto Rico does have financing issues, so it's quite possible that the revenue won't be booked this year even if the installs are done this year.

Thanks -- found it.

Tesla has guided for ~ 1 GWh storage total this year. This person says they are currently producing at a 4.5 GWh/year rate for PR alone.

I would love for that to be true but am highly skeptical.

The source is in the comments to the article below in case anyone wants to review and form their own conclusions.

Tesla has ‘about 11,000’ energy storage projects underway in Puerto Rico, says Elon Musk

 

[TradingInvest]

I would like to point out that Tesla is making EVs for 10 years already.

Of course, there is no way Jaguar can beat Tesla`s battery technology. And of course, there is no way to put production costs at the same level as Tesla`s.

Jaguar needs experience. Nobody is trying to compete with Tesla, everybody is trying to not lag too far behind. We must praise Jaguar for effort, they are not so many BEVs on sale now that are not Chinese.

Shorts will praise Jaguar's iPace, Audi's e-tron and discredit Tesla's Model X (They have been doing this for a while). They will use this tactic to smear Tesla's image and reduce Tesla's demand. Not sure if that will have an effect, whatever shorts do, probably is not good for Tesla. So I will definitely go against shorts.

 

[WarpedOne]

4,5GWh/year translates into 513kW "production power" i.e. 513 kWh of storage per hour of production running nonstop 365@24.
We may say GF is more powerful than a single Model S P100D.
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