I'm worried that option number 1 will not be an option. Tesla keeps the Robotaxi network to themselves. I know Elon said FSD will allow owners to profit from their cars when they are not using but I'm not convinced he will stand by that.
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FSD robotaxi use for shopping and parked
- Thread starter richguy
- Start date
It's just putting the cart before the horse.
FSD is still just a pretty inconsistent level 2 ADAS, years away from level 4 or 5 needed for Robotaxis. The theoretical robotaxi vehicle hasn't even been announced, yet. Many believe that the "Model 2" will be the first car out of Mexico, which itself hasn't been officially announced.
It's just too early to plan a business around something that may be 10+ years away.
Prepare to be pissed.
It was supposed to come in 2016, but since then they've started over basically 2 or 3 times and there's currently an entire reworking/re-write going on now.
It's hard. That's why no one else is doing it without strict Geofencing, successfully.
I think I heard the robo revenue split will be 1/3 owner and 2/3s Tesla, I might have the percentages wrong.
My bad there is a forth option that might be a challenge for Tesla as priority number one will be vehicles to the market for buyers, will their own ownership of Teslas to robo out.
If Tesla only offers #4 and keeps robo for themselves, it will be a massive betrayal.
A good number of people are paying $15K in the hope of making money with robo.
I find that difficult to believe. Maybe back in the early FSD days people believed this, but I doubt many, at least educated, people are buying FSD now for Robotaxi.
One difference is that there are no real technological reasons preventing us from colonize Mars right now (or within single-digit years). Yes, we'd like more powerful rockets so we can send bigger loads to Mars, but the lack of such hardware isn't a show-stopper block-ship bug.
- We could build a bunch of small-ish prefab habitats with oxygen concentrators and water recycling systems and launch them on rockets that we can build today.
- We could send large stockpiles of food, spare water, etc. (That last one is the biggest headache.)
- We could send raw materials for building a giant greenhouse, and a stockpile of seeds that can grow in that environment (lower light, harsh soil).
- We could send rovers that are big enough to carry people from one habitat to the next.
- We could send electric excavators and thousands of solar panels to provide for their power needs, enabling future mining, etc.
- We could send people to assemble everything.
RTPEV
Active Member
My worry is that Tesla (or maybe Elon specifically, which for now is essentially the same thing)) gets so caught up in the (false) hope that true FSD is really going to be a reality by the end of the year that they pivot away from making affordable vehicles with the idea that cars that are robotaxis do not need to be affordable since they will earn money for their owners.
I think when Tesla solves FSD to the point of Robotaxi, the price goes up to 25 grand. It will be 25K for the "Model 2" and another 25K for FSD. Fifty grand total to join the Robo fleet
Edit: This post seems to be well timed with the post above.
RTPEV
Active Member
That's a pretty damn big "if" there! So big that I was sure you were being sarcastic in your original post.
With robotaxis that are owned by other people who don't need the vehicle at that time, which is key to massively increasing utilization of the fleet, this does bring up interesting situations/wrinkles
For example, you will likely need to set hours of operation and buffer times and people using the service will need to pre-enter routes or commit to only using the vehicle for a certain period. Otherwise lets say you work 9-5, you get to work and set your robotaxi out to do its thing, what if someone hails it at 3pm and takes it on a 4hr milk run? That won't work, the vehicle needs to be there at 5pm to drive you home or you're hailing your own robotaxi.
THe same could be said for your robotaxi operating at night, it needs to be back at your house in the morning at a certain time. What if someone refuses to get out, does the car drive itself and an angry passenger back to your house? Does the seat need an ejection mechanism?
All kinds of interesting stuff when you really dig into how it would work
I should probably rent FSD for a month to see for myself how close it is but as it stands, I believe it's going to get delivered in less than 12 months from now.
I'll be a pissed off investor if it doesn't.
Isn’t the upside 3x to 5x a multiplier of rhe low cost vehicle “value,” not the actual purchase cost? He’s just stating rhe M2 will cost $25K but have a value of $75K as a FSD/Robotaxi.
I don’t see them moving away from M3 and M2 low cost models.
I don’t see them moving away from M3 and M2 low cost models.
RTPEV
Active Member
Another issue I'm not sure people think about enough is the earnings potential of robotaxis. I think people are pricing the earning potential based on today's Uber/Lyft/taxi fares, yet one of the supposed benefits of robotaxis is that there is no need to pay the driver, so the cost of a robotaxi ride is going to be a fraction of what Uber/Lyft charges. Well, you can't have it both ways.
And then if private vehicle ownership remains desirable among many, the fleet of robotaxi-capable vehicles will remain fairly large, especially if private use of those vehicles remains a low percentage of the vehicle's total usage. This will keep availability of robotaxis very high, which in turn depresses the fares that can be competitively charged for, which again lowers earnings potential.
A balance will be found, of course. If I had to speculate, I would think that in urban areas where robotaxis actually make sense and many people don't even own cars that there will be companies (as opposed to individuals) that make the investment in fleets of robotaxis. But in suburban & rural areas where private ownership will remain relatively high, I don't think it will be economical to invest in FSD as the returns just won't be there. I.e. FSD will be too costly an option to realistically recoup much money with a fleet size that likely far exceeds demand.
RTPEV
Active Member
Yes, if your investment decisions are based on FSD being available in 12 months, you should definitely try it out yourself. As mentioned earlier, I have been using it for about 1.75 years and the improvements during that time have been quite incremental and it has a long way to go. Not only that, but the edge cases it needs to handle are getting harder, not easier.I should probably rent FSD for a month to see for myself how close it is but as it stands, I believe it's going to get delivered in less than 12 months from now.
I'll be a pissed off investor if it doesn't.
It can do a marvelous job today if your criteria is you only have to intervene 5% of the time. But to function as a true robotaxi, you have to have 99.999% reliability. Even to use it as a meaningful driving assist you probably need 99%. Having to pay super close attention to catch that 1% that it can't handle is not an assist at all.
RTPEV
Active Member
I'd like to believe that, but Elon himself has stated at least once that the focus for the "Model 2" would not be on low cost, but rather on its capability as a robotaxi, meaning that they could get away with charging a high price for it given that it would earn its owner money in return (this was around the timeframe of the Shanghai factory construction).
They/he may have backed off on this and I do hope they really do release something at a $25K price point (although I hate when they announce prices years ahead of production), but they could just as easily get caught up focusing too much on FSD or Optimus or who knows what happens to distract Elon in the future.
So as a Beta tester for 2 years and someone who is in the 1st release group...the car is still not even programmed to handle school zones, school buses, most construction zones, hand signals, no right turn lanes (although some real-time map updates have seemingly resolved this in some area)...the car wants to dive into turning lanes going 60+mph if one opens up. It struggles making turns still and creeps way too far (especially in 11.4.6) into a lane before committing.I should probably rent FSD for a month to see for myself how close it is but as it stands, I believe it's going to get delivered in less than 12 months from now.
I'll be a pissed off investor if it doesn't.
We are far more than 1 year away. We aren't in the "march of 9s", yet and it's about to get a complete re-write, again. So we'll see another 1 step forward 2-steps back before any real progress is achieved when v12 comes out.
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It depends on what you have and what you want to try. You can get the FSD with stop light/sign recognition right away, but if you have HW4, you won't get FSD Beta for a while...whenever 11.4.X or 11.5 gets on a newer release, which is currently based on 2023.7.X. If you have HW3, you could get into 11.3.6, likely pretty quick as it's in all software versions.
You don't even drive/have FSD Beta but you are making "Elon" claims.I should probably rent FSD for a month to see for myself how close it is but as it stands, I believe it's going to get delivered in less than 12 months from now.
I'll be a pissed off investor if it doesn't.
I have been using it almost daly since the day it was released. I can say with confidence backed by experience we are NO where near L4 and probably never will be. Even Elon admits the hard part will be the march of .999s. I don't see us reaching the start of the march of .999s for at least >3 more years. It is fun as hell two test but it is NO where close to L4. In fact I suspect that the current cars will be lucky if we ever get full ODD L3.Similar threads
