FSD Beta v11.x

The next big milestone for FSD is 11. It is a significant upgrade and fundamental changes to several parts of the FSD stack including totally new way to train the perception NN.

From AI day and Lex Fridman interview we have a good sense of what might be included.

- Object permanence both temporal and spatial
- Moving from “bag of points” to objects in NN
- Creating a 3D vector representation of the environment all in NN
- Planner optimization using NN / Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)
- Change from processed images to “photon count” / raw image
- Change from single image perception to surround video
- Merging of city, highway and parking lot stacks a.k.a. Single Stack

Lex Fridman Interview of Elon. Starting with FSD related topics.

Here is a detailed explanation of Beta 11 in "layman's language" by James Douma, interview done after Lex Podcast.

Here is the AI Day explanation by in 4 parts.

Deep Understanding Tesla FSD Part 1: HydraNet

From Theory to Reality, Analyze the Evolution of Tesla Full Self-Driving

saneryee-studio.medium.com

Here is a useful blog post asking a few questions to Tesla about AI day. The useful part comes in comparison of Tesla's methods with Waymo and others (detailed papers linked).

Twelve Questions about Tesla Autopilot Technologies Exposed at 2021 AI Day

On Aug. 19 2021, Telsa held an AI day , exposing more technologies about Autopilot , from perception, planning, data labeling, simulation…

yuhuang-63908.medium.com

 

[EVNow]

Limited means that Tesla will do a staged rollout probably starting with around 1000 cars.

I think its going to be even more limited than that - just carefully selected YT influencers who Tesla can trust.

 

[Goose66]

He's playing the same game with v11 as he did with v10 and the "Beta Button" back in 2021. After nearly a year of hype in re. v10 and wide release of FSD Beta, Elon tweeted on 9/1 that v10 was limited release "this week," with wider release of 10.1 coming "2 weeks after that." The "wide release" didn't happen until 12 weeks later (v10.5) on November 23. I don't see any reason to expect anything more accelerated here, which would put wide release of v11 around second week of May, assuming "limited" release does, in fact, occur this week.

Of course, just like everybody else (including Elon himself), this is wild speculation with no factual basis behind, and probably has about as much chance of being right as any of our Super Bowl picks.

 

[Mardak]

I think its going to be even more limited than that - just carefully selected YT influencers who Tesla can trust

"Limited release" of 10.69(.0) back on August 21st did specially include pre-Safety-Score testers after the previous 10.12.2 release May 26th (so 12 weeks for this group). Whereas 10.69.2 rolled out widely starting September 11th (15 weeks wait for the rest of us).

https://twitter.com/x/status/1562157209513066501

For most FSD Beta 10.x releases, even this earlier pre-Safety-Score group didn't get initial 10.x(.0) releases that "employees" got showing up on various software trackers. So "limited" could be a smaller group than 10.69's special case to avoid some issues related to feedback caused by its rollout:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1562507192342761473

Although some have also interpreted his usage of "limited" in the context of the above 2 tweets meaning FSD Beta program as a whole as the request button pushers had to agree to a message including: "Thank you for your interest in limited early access Full Self-Driving Beta!" Although now that we're in wide release without people needing to push the request button anymore to get FSD Beta, maybe we'll see a different rollout pattern for FSD Beta 11.

 

[Mardak]

The TeslaFi vehicle that is on 11.x (11.2?) is receiving an update to 2022.45.5 maybe FSD Beta 11.3:

 

[Mardak]

This same TeslaFi vehicle received "11.x" back on December 25th even though Elon Musk said they've been "on 11.2 with a limited beta" back on December 22nd. So this particular "employee" vehicle was later than the "limited" alpha(?) group that got FSD Beta 11(.0) back on 11/11 11:11 and presumably also received 11.1 and 11.2 earlier in December.

There might be another employee group to expand to before non-employee customers as leading up to the holiday update, TeslaFi's other "employee" vehicles received 10.69.3.3 and 10.69.25 a little bit ahead of wide release for the rest of us. These employee vehicles have not received 2022.45.5 / FSD Beta 11.3 yet.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

I would be more upset by this highly-likely-to-be-very-exclusive release of FSD Beta 11.2/11.3 if it were likely to be at all good.

But fortunately, it is very unlikely to be, and we will all be spared wasting our time. At least for another few weeks/months.

Had a very relaxing drive to work this morning, with FSD Beta left fallow. Used NOA briefly just to check nag behavior, but overall more pain than it is worth mostly - at least for a short commute with "high curvature detected" curves on the freeway, with brisk lane changes required to make an exit, and a requirement to get up to the set speed promptly to avoid being tailgated and generally causing upset.

 

[sleepydoc]

I think its going to be even more limited than that - just carefully selected YT influencers shills who Tesla can trust.

Edited for clarity

 

[sleepydoc]

I would be more upset by this highly-likely-to-be-very-exclusive release of FSD Beta 11.2/11.3 if it were likely to be at all good.

But fortunately, it is very unlikely to be, and we will all be spared wasting our time. At least for another few weeks/months.

Unfortunately I think you're correct. First, simply the fact that this is a major re-write means there will likely be a lot of bugs. Even with that, the fact that it's taking so long to come out tells me there are a LOT of bugs that they're having a hard tome quashing.

 

[jeewee3000]

Regarding timeline for V11 'wide release' I'm not holding my breath but I can imagine Musk'll want something released before March 1st so he can brag about it on the investor day.

Regarding quality of the limited release builds and the reasons for the delays: of course V11 is a retracement at the start. They're training the single stack NN's more and more to get to a smoother experience.

Just my read on things at the moment.

 

[JulienW]

Regarding timeline for V11 'wide release' I'm not holding my breath.....

Good thing since holding your breath for over a year can cause serious side effects.

 

[kabin]

I would be more upset by this highly-likely-to-be-very-exclusive release of FSD Beta 11.2/11.3 if it were likely to be at all good.

But fortunately, it is very unlikely to be, and we will all be spared wasting our time. At least for another few weeks/months.

Had a very relaxing drive to work this morning, with FSD Beta left fallow. Used NOA briefly just to check nag behavior, but overall more pain than it is worth mostly - at least for a short commute with "high curvature detected" curves on the freeway, with brisk lane changes required to make an exit, and a requirement to get up to the set speed promptly to avoid being tailgated and generally causing upset.

I haven't tried sharp turns enough but there are youtube videos showing periodic freeway offramps issues. Occasionally NOA doesn't slow down enough and almost touches the guard rails before the driver takes over.

 

[kabin]

Edited for clarity

And sometimes browbeat into compliance.

 

[MP3Mike]

I am not a shill for Waymo. That is a completely uncalled for personal attack.

@EVNow didn't call you a shill. So I'm not sure what you are upset about.

 

[vamike]

I am not a shill for Waymo. That is a completely uncalled for personal attack. I do not engage in name calling. I would appreciate the same courtesy. And why single me out and drag me in when I have had nothing to do with this discussion?

I read EVNow's quote to mean just because those YT'ers are fans, influencers, and generally positive about Tesla doesn't make them Tesla "shills". In the same way that you being a fan, influencer and generally positive about Waymo doesn't make you a Waymo "shill". The problem is there is so much negativity around this site that anyone who is generally positive gets labeled as a shill.

 

[diplomat33]

I read EVNow's quote to mean just because those YT'ers are fans, influencers, and generally positive about Tesla doesn't make them Tesla "shills". In the same way that you being a fan, influencer and generally positive about Waymo doesn't make you a Waymo "shill". The problem is there is so much negativity around this site that anyone who is generally positive gets labeled as a shill.

Thanks. I see that now.

@EVNow didn't call you a shill. So I'm not sure what you are upset about.

It sounded like he did. But after reading it again, I can see what he meant.

 

[Gbills]

Thanks. I see that now.



It sounded like he did. But after reading it again, I can see what he meant.

The statement was written to go either way. Only ev knows what he was trying to convey.

 

[Mardak]

And now it looks like that TeslaFi vehicle getting 11.x and 2022.45.5 / FSD Beta 11.3 is no longer on the service similar to a previous "employee" vehicle getting 10.69.3.2 then disappearing mid-December. Viewing the vehicle just shows "XXX" for the Vin and 0 miles for Odometer. Seems like there might be only one "employee" vehicle on each of TeslaFi and Teslascope now that are reporting software versions, and those vehicles are still on 10.69.x.

I wonder if the strict NDA will continue once FSD Beta 11 is in wide release.

 

[JulienW]

.....I wonder if the strict NDA will continue once FSD Beta 11 is in wide release.

V11 is in internal employee testing. Once it is released, even to select influencers it will be public and we don't have an NDA. Internal "releasing" and testing is NOT released.

 

[powertoold]

And now it looks like that TeslaFi vehicle getting 11.x and 2022.45.5 / FSD Beta 11.3 is no longer on the service similar to a previous "employee" vehicle getting 10.69.3.2 then disappearing mid-December. Viewing the vehicle just shows "XXX" for the Vin and 0 miles for Odometer. Seems like there might be only one "employee" vehicle on each of TeslaFi and Teslascope now that are reporting software versions, and those vehicles are still on 10.69.x.

I wonder if the strict NDA will continue once FSD Beta 11 is in wide release.

I think every time Tesla is more secretive about a release, it's going to be further delayed, so I don't have a good feeling about this car disappearing from TeslaFi.

 

[sleepydoc]

And now it looks like that TeslaFi vehicle getting 11.x and 2022.45.5 / FSD Beta 11.3 is no longer on the service similar to a previous "employee" vehicle getting 10.69.3.2 then disappearing mid-December. Viewing the vehicle just shows "XXX" for the Vin and 0 miles for Odometer. Seems like there might be only one "employee" vehicle on each of TeslaFi and Teslascope now that are reporting software versions, and those vehicles are still on 10.69.x.

I wonder if the strict NDA will continue once FSD Beta 11 is in wide release.

Curious about this - I don’t know how TeslaFi and similar sites identify vehicles, but is it possible that the vehicle disappeared as a result of a downgrade? I.e. they downloaded V11 and had significant issues forcing a reversion to a previous version?