FSD Beta v11.x

EVNow · Jan 8, 2023

We have been through this a million times. Only pre-2019 FSD language promised L5 kind of functionality. Only those small # of cars need to be reimbursed some % of what they paid for FSD. Infact I think Tesla should do that now and it off the books. It’s all unrecognized revenue, so will only hit FCF.

tivoboy · Jan 9, 2023

EVNow said:
We have been through this a million times. Only pre-2019 FSD language promised L5 kind of functionality. Only those small # of cars need to be reimbursed some % of what they paid for FSD. Infact I think Tesla should do that now and it off the books. It’s all unrecognized revenue, so will only hit FCF.

I’d love that.. but also technically I think it’s all DEFERRED revenue so it sits on the balance sheet and from a valuation standpoint it would be an overall enterprise hit to future revenue recognition.. now I think it’s also small relatie to what the company can produce with just selling CARS and BATTERIES and SOLAR and stuff but I think if they were ever to make this change they are going to pick the timing.

Knightshade · Jan 9, 2023

tivoboy said:
I’d love that.. but also technically I think it’s all DEFERRED revenue so it sits on the balance sheet and from a valuation standpoint it would be an overall enterprise hit to future revenue recognition..

Deferred revenue on the balance sheet is offset 1:1 by a liability for the thing you have not yet delivered- so the net on the balance sheet would be unchanged AFAIK (well-- minus the one-time cost to refund those pre march 2019 folks the 2-4 grand, maybe plus interest? that they paid)

jebinc · Jan 9, 2023

Knightshade said:
Except, of course, they did say they'd provide needed upgrades- and said so repeatedly, through several revisions of hardware now- as long as they were neesary to delivery the features promised.

Starting way back when HW2.5 became known.

Tesla has been working on a backup plan in case its self-driving promises fail

Meet ‘HW 2.5’

www.theverge.com

Then, when both of those turned out to be incapable of FSD, HW3 came out. And again Tesla made it crystal clear HW upgrades were free since they were needed to deliver what you paid for:

So we've been given no reason to doubt they'd continue to keep that back-to-HW2.5 days promise to upgrade at no cost anyone for whom the HW changes are needed to deliver what they were promised.

Upgrading the computer, including labor, would be less than $1000 cost to Tesla. For customers they'd otherwise need to refund significantly more than $1000 if they can't actually deliver FSD.

Even if they had to upgrade the cameras and radar as well it'd be less than even the 3k the older buyers paid.

FAILING to do so (and trying to avoid a full, with interest, refund) would destroy any future sales of FSD too since nobody would trust the company to deliver going forward.

And if they had to refund anywhere from $3000 or more to each of them-- that's an even larger #.

They'd have to do one of those two.

Upgrades are significantly cheaper.

If it's just the computer it's about half the time you estimate. If it's all the cameras and radar sure could be 3-4. And sure it might indeed take months. HW3 upgrades certainly did and it was fine. This would be too.

[/QUOTE]
No, the way “the Charlatan” gets/got around all of this is by redefining “FSD”. Today, FSD is no longer defined by Tesla to be fully autonomous, but rather a level 2 aid. No free hardware is coming.

Knightshade · Jan 9, 2023

jebinc said:
No, the way “the Charlatan” gets/got around all of this is by redefining “FSD”. Today, FSD is no longer defined by Tesla to be fully autonomous, but rather a level 2 aid. No free hardware is coming.

Except the pre-march-2019 buyers were promised at least L4. So yes, the way he deals with them is exactly what I describe- either a full refund with interest or (at lower cost) a free HW upgrade.

Now, if they realistically think HW4 ALSO won't be enough, maybe at some point you cut your losses and do the refunds.

There'll absolutely be lawsuits though- and not just from the pre 3/19 FSD buyers, but potentially ALL pre 3/19 customers since they can say they relied on the "all HW needed for L4 or better" claim when making their original purchase.... so (again only if they don't believe they can actually get there) it might still make sense to do the HW4 upgrades for free in hopes you eventually get the # of original owners down low enough that by the time you admit you can't do it the damage is minor).

OTOH if they think they can get there, and HW4 will be it, then the HW upgrade remains a cheaper (and much better from a PR perspective) option than refunding anyone.

I agree the POST 3/19 buyers would not, technically, be entitled to anything more than wide-release city streets... and that that concern (how much they're on the hook for it they can't deliver more) is exactly WHY they changed what was promised with FSD in March 2019.... but as I've also said I believe if they find they CAN deliver more, they will do so-- including to the post 3/19 buyers (and again doing so with a free HW4 upgrade would be only a small fraction of the $ those people paid for FSD anyway since they all paid considerably more than the pre 3/19 folks)

jebinc · Jan 9, 2023

Knightshade said:
Except the pre-march-2019 buyers were promised at least L4. So yes, the way he deals with them is exactly what I describe- either a full refund with interest or (at lower cost) a free HW upgrade.

Now, if they realistically think HW4 ALSO won't be enough, maybe at some point you cut your losses and do the refunds.

There'll absolutely be lawsuits though- and not just from the pre 3/19 FSD buyers, but potentially ALL pre 3/19 customers since they can say they relied on the "all HW needed for L4 or better" claim when making their original purchase.... so (again only if they don't believe they can actually get there) it might still make sense to do the HW4 upgrades for free in hopes you eventually get the # of original owners down low enough that by the time you admit you can't do it the damage is minor).

OTOH if they think they can get there, and HW4 will be it, then the HW upgrade remains a cheaper (and much better from a PR perspective) option than refunding anyone.

I agree the POST 3/19 buyers would not, technically, be entitled to anything more than wide-release city streets... and that that concern (how much they're on the hook for it they can't deliver more) is exactly WHY they changed what was promised with FSD in March 2019.... but as I've also said I believe if they find they CAN deliver more, they will do so-- including to the post 3/19 buyers (and again doing so with a free HW4 upgrade would be only a small fraction of the $ those people paid for FSD anyway since they all paid considerably more than the pre 3/19 folks)

So, how would a court view that shafting and Tesla's continual rising of FSD prices to the current $15,000 level - If these post 3/19 bastards are left with only the current "City streets" abomination? There are many that paid the higher $15,000 for what? Why the constant raising of prices if the capability doesn't come along with that increase. Yes, the courts will have a field day with this.

Knightshade · Jan 9, 2023

jebinc said:
So, how would a court view that shafting

What shafting, specifically?

If you bought after 3/19 and you only get city streets in addition to the previously available features, you got exactly what was promised to you during your purchase.

jebinc said:
and Tesla's continual rising of FSD prices to the current $15,000 level

Unclear how or why you think that'd be relevant to anything at all, legally speaking?

jebinc said:
- If these post 3/19 bastards are left with only the current "City streets" abomination? There are many that paid the higher $15,000 for what?

For exactly what was promised during their purchase. Which is L2 on city streets (plus autopark and summon and the other specific features-- so they'd at least need to get the currently missing from non-USS cars working but otherwise they'd owe them nothing further)

The only basis for anything beyond that would be the legally murky idea of using whatever vague thing Elon tweeted as an aspirational goal, or said during earnings calls specifically with a forward-looking-statement disclaimer not to be relied on, and not actually listed in the product description during purchase-- not that folks might not try but that has thusfar not gotten much traction anywhere.

jebinc said:
Why the constant raising of prices if the capability doesn't come along with that increase. Yes, the courts will have a field day with this.

Again I can't see how the price increase has any legal relevance. Can you expand on why you think it does?

jebinc · Jan 9, 2023

Knightshade said:
What shafting, specifically?

If you bought after 3/19 and you only get city streets in addition to the previously available features, you got exactly what was promised to you during your purchase.

Unclear how or why you think that'd be relevant to anything at all, legally speaking?

For exactly what was promised during their purchase. Which is L2 on city streets (plus autopark and summon and the other specific features-- so they'd at least need to get the currently missing from non-USS cars working but otherwise they'd owe them nothing further)

The only basis for anything beyond that would be the legally murky idea of using whatever vague thing Elon tweeted as an aspirational goal, or said during earnings calls specifically with a forward-looking-statement disclaimer not to be relied on, and not actually listed in the product description during purchase-- not that folks might not try but that has thusfar not gotten much traction anywhere.

Again I can't see how the price increase has any legal relevance. Can you expand on why you think it does?

Let’s say HW4, new cameras and HD radar arrive on the 3 this July. FSD is $15,000 in May and also in July. Using your logic, a May 3 owner is entitled to what you say for $15,000 and the July 3 owner gets a lot more for $15,000. No legal issue. I think there will be (a legal issue). Time will tell. We are all just speculating at this point in time.

Mardak · Jan 9, 2023

Knightshade said:
If you bought after 3/19 and you only get city streets in addition to the previously available features, you got exactly what was promised to you during your purchase

Are you suggesting for these FSD Capability buyers after March 2019, Tesla might keep them on FSD Beta 10.69.25.1 (which seems to have been wide release of Autosteer on city streets) and not upgrade them to FSD Beta 11 / single stack as they were never promised improved highway driving with their FSD purchase?

I suppose with Tesla updating radar vehicles to Tesla Vision, some appreciate the improved safety and reduced phantom braking while others fear/avoid its increased follow distance, so it's less clear if people care if they're excluded especially that most people didn't need to pay for basic Autopilot.

On the flip side, Tesla does have to decide to provide fewer vehicle software updates to older vehicles at some point, and MCU1 vehicles have been missing out on a lot of changes that MCU2+ have received. But last year, they did get FSD Beta albeit with lower quality visualizations as part of the wide release, so it'll be interesting to see their rate of updates going forwards such as getting FSD Beta 11 at the same time as others vs delayed.

Knightshade · Jan 9, 2023

jebinc said:
Let’s say HW4, new cameras and HD radar arrive on the 3 this July. FSD is $15,000 in May and also in July. Using your logic, a May 3 owner is entitled to what you say for $15,000 and the July 3 owner gets a lot more for $15,000. No legal issue. I think there will be (a legal issue). Time will tell. We are all just speculating at this point in time.

If they don't change the definition of FSD between those dates from what it is today then no, the June owner isn't entitled to any more than the May owner. He might get newer HW, but he's not "owed" anything beyond what the May guy was owed as far as FSD features.

People who bought a model 3 after they put a heated steering wheel in got "more" than those who bought before, but that's not relevant to any legal action after all.

Software/driving feature wise both would be entitled to L2 city streets (which in NA is already essentially delivered for FSD owners, though I certainly expect updates to make existing features better over time)

Only the pre March 2019 buyers are entitled to, or were ever promised during purchase, more than that (specifically they were promised at least L4 with a wide ODD-- arguably they were promised L5).

Now some cynics have speculated Tesla would choose to offer a new SUPERFSD for HW4 post 3/19 buyers that adds new stuff HW3 can't do that goes beyond the current listed features, and try and sell that to post 3/19 but pre-HW4 buyers. That seems super unlikely to me-- at 15k a pop of revenue Tesla could easily afford existing HW3 cars in that group and still reap a huge profit on the net amount, not to mention engender massive goodwill and heavily drive FUTURE FSD sales since the majority of such cars don't have FSD purchased.

But none of that is relevant until they've got some significant capabilities that require HW4. Remember nothing new/unique capability-wise "required" HW3 feature wise for a good while after it was shipping on cars.

Mardak said:
Are you suggesting for these FSD Capability buyers after March 2019, Tesla might keep them on FSD Beta 10.69.25.1 (which seems to have been wide release of Autosteer on city streets) and not upgrade them to FSD Beta 11 / single stack as they were never promised improved highway driving with their FSD purchase?

Assuming single stack can run on HW3 I don't see why they wouldn't get that.,

FSD for those buyers includes highway NoA after all.

EVNow · Jan 9, 2023

tivoboy said:
I’d love that.. but also technically I think it’s all DEFERRED revenue so it sits on the balance sheet and from a valuation standpoint it would be an overall enterprise hit to future revenue recognition.. now I think it’s also small relatie to what the company can produce with just selling CARS and BATTERIES and SOLAR and stuff but I think if they were ever to make this change they are going to pick the timing.

50% or so is already recognized (well, for some years anyway). Either way, I don’t think the hit will be more than $50M, small change for Tesla nowadays, with billions in cashflow every quarter.

Gbills · Jan 9, 2023

Knightshade said:
What shafting, specifically?

If you bought after 3/19 and you only get city streets in addition to the previously available features, you got exactly what was promised to you during your purchase.

Unclear how or why you think that'd be relevant to anything at all, legally speaking?

For exactly what was promised during their purchase. Which is L2 on city streets (plus autopark and summon and the other specific features-- so they'd at least need to get the currently missing from non-USS cars working but otherwise they'd owe them nothing further)

The only basis for anything beyond that would be the legally murky idea of using whatever vague thing Elon tweeted as an aspirational goal, or said during earnings calls specifically with a forward-looking-statement disclaimer not to be relied on, and not actually listed in the product description during purchase-- not that folks might not try but that has thusfar not gotten much traction anywhere.

Again I can't see how the price increase has any legal relevance. Can you expand on why you think it does?

What I was promised and what I was willing to pay for that promise before 3/19 has nothing to do with what you were willing to pay for your promise after 3/19.

Knightshade · Jan 9, 2023

Gbills said:
What I was promised and what I was willing to pay for that promise before 3/19 has nothing to do with what you were willing to pay for your promise after 3/19.

First- I bought before 3/19-- meaning I paid less, and am owed more, than those who bought after then (though that's not too relevant to this)

Second- I was the one saying the pricing at any given time isn't legally relevant- so you seem to be trying to tell me...what I already said? Did you mean to reply to the person I was responding to instead?

Gbills · Jan 9, 2023

Knightshade said:
First- I bought before 3/19-- meaning I paid less, and am owed more, than those who bought after then (though that's not too relevant to this)

Second- I was the one saying the pricing at any given time isn't legally relevant- so you seem to be trying to tell me...what I already said? Did you mean to reply to the person I was responding to instead?

Sure why not or just reinforcing what you had posted.

Mardak · Jan 9, 2023

Knightshade said:
Assuming single stack can run on HW3 I don't see why they wouldn't get that. FSD for those buyers includes highway NoA after all.

Sure, I agree that it seems likely single stack will go to everyone getting "Autosteer on city streets," and even more than that eventually those with compatible hardware without FSD Capability purchased will get the benefits of single stack as it'll improve Tesla's Vehicle Safety Report metrics.

I suppose one argument is that one shouldn't expect anything more than what was on the order/design page, which says nothing of "single stack for highway NoA," but practically Tesla has gone beyond that at least for safety:

Because every Tesla is connected, we’re able to use the billions of miles of real-world data from our global fleet – of which more than 9 billion have been driven with Autopilot engaged – to understand the different ways accidents happen. We then develop features that can help Tesla drivers mitigate or avoid accidents. Through over-the-air software updates, we’re able to introduce safety features and enhancements long after a car has been delivered, as well as release updated versions of existing safety features that take into account the most up-to-date real-world data collected by our fleet.

Most of those 9 billion Autopilot miles have been on highways, and Tesla is probably well aware of the limitations of the legacy stack that result in crashes and FSD Beta's stack should help increase the metrics to an even higher level:

(Each leveling/plateauing in this trailing-twelve-month graph basically reflects the new safety capability of Autopilot, and the increasing slope before the flatter sections reflects more of the fleet updating to the newer behavior and replacing the previous year's data.)

vegetaban · Jan 9, 2023

I have several (probably dumb) questions.

I am currently on 2022.44.25.3 and have 2022.44.30.5 queued to download and update in my 2022 M3LR. I subscribed to FSD to try it while on vacation and have requested the beta. Would installing this update allow me to try the beta? Do I need to wait for confirmation about my beta request I submitted yesterday?

JulienW · Jan 9, 2023

vegetaban said:
I have several (probably dumb) questions.

I am currently on 2022.44.25.3 and have 2022.44.30.5 queued to download and update in my 2022 M3LR. I subscribed to FSD to try it while on vacation and have requested the beta. Would installing this update allow me to try the beta? Do I need to wait for confirmation about my beta request I submitted yesterday?

44.30.5 IS the Beta.

vegetaban · Jan 9, 2023

JulienW said:
44.30.5 IS the Beta.

Thank you! I never dabbled in FSD yet in my 6 months, will play with it after my tire rotation!

JulienW · Jan 9, 2023

vegetaban said:
Thank you! I never dabbled in FSD yet in my 6 months, will play with it after my tire rotation!

If you are driving to your tire rotation then you can use Beta to try and get you there.

vegetaban · Jan 9, 2023

JulienW said:
If you are driving to your tire rotation then you can use Beta to try and get you there.

LOL I downloaded the update with my phone tethering to the car while driving there. Almost started the update while waiting, glad I didn’t because they went out to pull into the garage a minute later.

FSD Beta v11.x

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