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Discussion of statistical analysis of vehicle fires as it relates to Model S

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Did Tesla ever give an indication of how far the road debris penetrated the battery in the two road debris fire?

No.

Just curious if our new higher ride would have prevented these fires.

Unknown. It might have allowed the debris to pass under, or the debris might have done the same damage because of the angle at which they were at, or it might have allowed larger debris under which would have done even worse damage. I've seen nothing to indicate that higher ride height is safer.
 
It might have allowed the debris to pass under, or the debris might have done the same damage because of the angle at which they were at, or it might have allowed larger debris under which would have done even worse damage. I've seen nothing to indicate that higher ride height is safer.
Tesla's "fix" reminds me of the story of two campers. A hungry bear invades their campground, and one of the campers puts on his running shoes. "Dude, you can't outrun a bear!" his friend exclaims. "I don't need to out run the bear, but you."

In LOW setting, the Model S is one of the lowest cars on the road, so debris that other cars might pass over, we hit. At the new NORMAL setting, we're higher than many other cars. This change improves the odds that some car ahead of us takes the hit, rather than us.
 
this is now comparing bananas with pork chops......
I disagree. Both bananas and pork chops are good things. None of the accident statistics are talking about good things.

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In the early days of radial tires one of the most common complaints was that the sidewalls were too weak. This perception happened because the steel belts in the tread prevented most tread punctures so when there was a flat it almost always occurred in the sidewalls. As it turned out the sidewalls weren't weak at all (when compared with bias-ply tires), just the tread area was much stronger.

The weak sidewalls of radial tires sounds a lot like these battery armour/Model S fire threads.
Agree.

"My Tesla caught on fire and burned my investment when I wrecked. Now I have to go buy a new one."
"My friend's <any other car> caught on fire and he died. Shut the hell up."

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I don't see how it is off base. Boeing was grounded for several months, for fires, that occurred in only a few of its 787 Dreamliners. The point is simply that even rare events can be indicative of a problem.
I refer you to the story offered by a TMC member a bit back. IIRC, mother and daughter leave the house on the same day wearing the same basic color. Clearly all women will wear that color within 7 days and this should be researched to see if there is a psychological problem involved.

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You are entitled to your opinion, but I would point out that as a moderator you ought to know the rules better than anyone and avoid setting a bad example. Using this forum to make personal attacks against a poster rather than addressing the topic itself would get anyone else a warning or a ban.
What she said was not a personal attack. You're just trying to rustle feathers in yet another direction. Wasting everyone's time. Mission accomplished I guess.
 
Did Tesla ever give an indication of how far the road debris penetrated the battery in the two road debris fire?
Just curious if our new higher ride would have prevented these fires.
Raising the height dramatically reduces the changes of a collision with road debris because it makes it much less likely that the Model S will be the first vehicle to hit it. If its average or above height, some other car will likely hit it first.
The degree of penetration isn't necessarily closely related to the ride height. In the collisions so far, all it takes is to hit a lip, just enough to be able to flip the bar up and cause it to impale.
 
Go Forward?

I was hoping to get some advice from this forum about a potential Model S purchase. I am considering putting down a reserve as a Christmas gift for my husband, but then I came across the information about the fires and the NHTSA investigation. Now I'm not sure it is such a great idea. I read through most of the information on this board and a few others, but it seems to be pretty contradictory. The question is, should I put a reserve down now or wait to see what the NHTSA has to say? I mean, we wouldn't have the care for a little bit anyway, but is it enough time for this all to be wrapped up or should I wait a bit? Any advice is appreciated from those of you who understand the statistics better than I do.
 
The question is, should I put a reserve down now or wait to see what the NHTSA has to say? I mean, we wouldn't have the care for a little bit anyway, but is it enough time for this all to be wrapped up or should I wait a bit? Any advice is appreciated from those of you who understand the statistics better than I do.

If people waited for the NHTSA to determine if they'd buy a vehicle or not, we'd all be walking. Are you planning on making it a habit of driving over large metal objects at high speeds? If so, buy a 4x4 or a tank - whichever fits better in your garage.

But seriously, not sure what you're concerned about. A couple of people ran over large hunks of metal at highway speeds that caused tons of force against the bottom of the car and pierced the battery pack. Shortly thereafter the car told the drivers to pull over before it shut itself down. Both drivers exited the cars and then a small portion of the large battery pack began to burn, venting the fire forward and toward the ground away from the passenger compartment.

You have seen the pictures of ICE cars with the floorboard pierced by metal objects, right? And you know that people have been impaled in their ICE cars (and some have died) via objects coming up through the floorboard, right? And you know that you're driving around with flammable fluids in your car at this very second, right?

Lastly, the KBA has already done and finished their investigation and found not a thing wrong with the Model S.
 
If people waited for the NHTSA to determine if they'd buy a vehicle or not, we'd all be walking. Are you planning on making it a habit of driving over large metal objects at high speeds? If so, buy a 4x4 or a tank - whichever fits better in your garage.

But seriously, not sure what you're concerned about. A couple of people ran over large hunks of metal at highway speeds that caused tons of force against the bottom of the car and pierced the battery pack. Shortly thereafter the car told the drivers to pull over before it shut itself down. Both drivers exited the cars and then a small portion of the large battery pack began to burn, venting the fire forward and toward the ground away from the passenger compartment.

You have seen the pictures of ICE cars with the floorboard pierced by metal objects, right? And you know that people have been impaled in their ICE cars (and some have died) via objects coming up through the floorboard, right? And you know that you're driving around with flammable fluids in your car at this very second, right?

Lastly, the KBA has already done and finished their investigation and found not a thing wrong with the Model S.

Best. Post. Ever. :cool:
 
I was hoping to get some advice from this forum about a potential Model S purchase. I am considering putting down a reserve as a Christmas gift for my husband, but then I came across the information about the fires and the NHTSA investigation. Now I'm not sure it is such a great idea. I read through most of the information on this board and a few others, but it seems to be pretty contradictory. The question is, should I put a reserve down now or wait to see what the NHTSA has to say? I mean, we wouldn't have the care for a little bit anyway, but is it enough time for this all to be wrapped up or should I wait a bit? Any advice is appreciated from those of you who understand the statistics better than I do.


Agree with Krugerrand. I don't think that the answer lies with the statistics; there's not enough data. The real question is, putting aside how likely it is to happen, whether the potential problem is serious and significant. Unless and until we see an event with a far more substantial consequence than the events we've seen to date, I am not concerned. At this point, every indication is that the batteries' safety features function as designed, giving the driver enough time to stop and safely exit the car while at the same time completely protecting the passenger cabin from fire. So, at this point at least, it appears that the worst thing that happens is that the car is damaged by fire, which Tesla will cover under warranty. Just make sure any priceless art or wine you carry in the frunk is properly insured.

And Krugerrand is also right about the consequences in other cars. After seeing some of the effects of running over road debris in a conventional car, I'm thinking about buying an MRAP to commute in.
 
I was hoping to get some advice from this forum about a potential Model S purchase. I am considering putting down a reserve as a Christmas gift for my husband, but then I came across the information about the fires and the NHTSA investigation. Now I'm not sure it is such a great idea. I read through most of the information on this board and a few others, but it seems to be pretty contradictory. The question is, should I put a reserve down now or wait to see what the NHTSA has to say? I mean, we wouldn't have the care for a little bit anyway, but is it enough time for this all to be wrapped up or should I wait a bit? Any advice is appreciated from those of you who understand the statistics better than I do.

The fundamental fact about safety is that the Model S has had zero serious injuries and zero deaths. That is with some very serious accidents in excess of 100 MPH. More than likely, if you were driving any standard car, you'd either be dead (like the actor recently) or very seriously injured. So far the Model S has lived up to its NHTSA safety rating of 5 stars all around saying that it is one of the safest cars on the road. The Model S is not fire proof, but neither is any car you've ever driven. Go back to the fundamentals and you can feel very safe about your purchase. You and your husband will be driving a car that is very very safe.
 
If people waited for the NHTSA to determine if they'd buy a vehicle or not, we'd all be walking. Are you planning on making it a habit of driving over large metal objects at high speeds? If so, buy a 4x4 or a tank - whichever fits better in your garage. But seriously, not sure what you're concerned about. A couple of people ran over large hunks of metal at highway speeds that caused tons of force against the bottom of the car and pierced the battery pack. Shortly thereafter the car told the drivers to pull over before it shut itself down. Both drivers exited the cars and then a small portion of the large battery pack began to burn, venting the fire forward and toward the ground away from the passenger compartment. You have seen the pictures of ICE cars with the floorboard pierced by metal objects, right? And you know that people have been impaled in their ICE cars (and some have died) via objects coming up through the floorboard, right? And you know that you're driving around with flammable fluids in your car at this very second, right? Lastly, the KBA has already done and finished their investigation and found not a thing wrong with the Model S.
Had I known you would be so rude and demeaning, I wouldn't have asked. All I wanted was an opinion on what the NHTSA would find/do. I don't want to get a car and then have to send it back in a recall if that can be avoided. I would rather wait for the fix, if one is coming, and then buy. I was hoping someone with some more knowledge of the fires would be able to offer an assessment of liklihood of a recall/fix/change in the car. Forget I asked. I had no idea people on this forum were so hostile. If this is how Tesla drivers act, I'm not sure I want to be seen in one.
 
If people waited for the NHTSA to determine if they'd buy a vehicle or not, we'd all be walking. Are you planning on making it a habit of driving over large metal objects at high speeds? If so, buy a 4x4 or a tank - whichever fits better in your garage.

But seriously, not sure what you're concerned about. A couple of people ran over large hunks of metal at highway speeds that caused tons of force against the bottom of the car and pierced the battery pack. Shortly thereafter the car told the drivers to pull over before it shut itself down. Both drivers exited the cars and then a small portion of the large battery pack began to burn, venting the fire forward and toward the ground away from the passenger compartment.

You have seen the pictures of ICE cars with the floorboard pierced by metal objects, right? And you know that people have been impaled in their ICE cars (and some have died) via objects coming up through the floorboard, right? And you know that you're driving around with flammable fluids in your car at this very second, right?

Lastly, the KBA has already done and finished their investigation and found not a thing wrong with the Model S.

+ 1

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Had I known you would be so rude and demeaning, I wouldn't have asked. All I wanted was an opinion on what the NHTSA would find/do. I don't want to get a car and then have to send it back in a recall if that can be avoided. I would rather wait for the fix, if one is coming, and then buy. I was hoping someone with some more knowledge of the fires would be able to offer an assessment of liklihood of a recall/fix/change in the car. Forget I asked. I had no idea people on this forum were so hostile. If this is how Tesla drivers act, I'm not sure I want to be seen in one.

Maybe because I am not English mother tongue but I don't see Krugerrand to be hostile and rude, but very precise and detailed in his explanation.
 
Had I known you would be so rude and demeaning, I wouldn't have asked. All I wanted was an opinion on what the NHTSA would find/do. I don't want to get a car and then have to send it back in a recall if that can be avoided. I would rather wait for the fix, if one is coming, and then buy. I was hoping someone with some more knowledge of the fires would be able to offer an assessment of liklihood of a recall/fix/change in the car. Forget I asked. I had no idea people on this forum were so hostile. If this is how Tesla drivers act, I'm not sure I want to be seen in one.

BillHamp. Is that you? If so, the answers you seek can be found here: ;)
 
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I was hoping to get some advice from this forum about a potential Model S purchase. I am considering putting down a reserve as a Christmas gift for my husband, but then I came across the information about the fires and the NHTSA investigation. Now I'm not sure it is such a great idea. I read through most of the information on this board and a few others, but it seems to be pretty contradictory. The question is, should I put a reserve down now or wait to see what the NHTSA has to say? I mean, we wouldn't have the care for a little bit anyway, but is it enough time for this all to be wrapped up or should I wait a bit? Any advice is appreciated from those of you who understand the statistics better than I do.
Well, statistics does very little to tell if there's an actual problem. So far the statistics say the Model S is many times less likely to catch fire than a typical ICE car off the road. The OP of this thread says there's a decent chance that the Model S is more likely to be involved in a collision+fire than a typical ICE car. However, for context, as others mention, in every single incident the people were able to walk away in safety. Plus Tesla is covering fires in the warranty if you are concerned about insurance.

If it's a big concern then wait a couple months for the investigation to finish before the purchase. You might get a lot opinions from "armchair engineers," but in the end no one here can really tell you if there's a safety issue that needs a recall. However, given Germany's safety organization already cleared Tesla (and actually NHTSA decided not to investigate after some informal inquiry on the first fire), I doubt there's a real safety issue.
 
Had I known you would be so rude and demeaning, I wouldn't have asked. All I wanted was an opinion on what the NHTSA would find/do.

Well, you didn't say that. You posted a vague expression of concerns, asking what you should do, and several people took the trouble to answer you as best they could.

If this is how Tesla drivers act, I'm not sure I want to be seen in one.

If this is how you act when people try to answer you, I would stay away from user forums, Tesla and otherwise.
 
The fundamental fact about safety is that the Model S has had zero serious injuries and zero deaths. That is with some very serious accidents in excess of 100 MPH. More than likely, if you were driving any standard car, you'd either be dead (like the actor recently) or very seriously injured. So far the Model S has lived up to its NHTSA safety rating of 5 stars all around saying that it is one of the safest cars on the road. The Model S is not fire proof, but neither is any car you've ever driven. Go back to the fundamentals and you can feel very safe about your purchase. You and your husband will be driving a car that is very very safe.
Thank you for a civil reply. Zero serious injuries is definitely a plus. The car is so new though that I don't know much about it. It's all people around here have been talking about, so I really would like to make the reserve a Christmas gift. I just don't want people to think I'm trying to do in the husband!! (A joke for those who think otherwise). Again, your civility and thorough response is appreciated. I think I'll be leaving this forum though. Thanks for the help.
 
Thank you for a civil reply. Zero serious injuries is definitely a plus. The car is so new though that I don't know much about it. It's all people around here have been talking about, so I really would like to make the reserve a Christmas gift. I just don't want people to think I'm trying to do in the husband!! (A joke for those who think otherwise). Again, your civility and thorough response is appreciated. I think I'll be leaving this forum though. Thanks for the help.

Thank you. A lot of people around here are very defensive right now. They love their cars and the company and both have been under attack by detractors. There are a lot of entities that would love to see Tesla and their cars fail. Among those are the political Right Wing (who should be all for Tesla succeeding), Tesla stock short sellers, people that don't like change, oil companies, regular car manufacturers, the media (in that creating a scandal gets them more viewers), and dealerships are just some of the more obvious people against Tesla becoming a success.

Keep in mind that in the recent survey of customer satisfaction by Consumer Reports the Model S scored the highest in that 99 out of 100 people that own them would buy them again. That is very significant. Another significant point is that all three owners that had a fire said they wanted a replacement Model S as soon as possible. Those same people loved their car too.

Good luck. I hope you get the car and are one of those that truly love the car. I know I can't wait to get mine.