Deliveries are now pushed back? Q4 already had a very optimistic delivery projection.

[Krugerrand]

...but it is impossible to say what percentage of deliveries that is, which is what should concern us as investors.

How is this a concern? Even if 100% of the remaining Q3 deliveries are pushed out a month, or two, or three, how does that change Big-Picture-Tesla? An 'investor' isn't looking at today, or tomorrow, or next month, and not even next quarter.

I've never understood people looking for trouble around the next corner, or making a mountain out of a mole hill. Have a little faith already. How many more times must Tesla prove themselves? Have they not already rewarded investors many times over?

Chillax. They got this.

 

[Zzzz...]

How is this a concern? Even if 100% of the remaining Q3 deliveries are pushed out a month, or two, or three, how does that change Big-Picture-Tesla? An 'investor' isn't looking at today, or tomorrow, or next month, and not even next quarter.

I've never understood people looking for trouble around the next corner, or making a mountain out of a mole hill. Have a little faith already. How many more times must Tesla prove themselves? Have they not already rewarded investors many times over?

Chillax. They got this.

Long term it wont affect Tesla. Just like few freakish fires a year ago, or Broder, or BBC Top Gear with their Roadster test. Who remember Top Gear now other than few Tesla fans?

But missing Q4 guidance will affect short term TSLA price. And there is a reason as to why we got "Short term" forum thread here. Or we do not need it?

 

[hobbes]

How is this a concern? Even if 100% of the remaining Q3 deliveries are pushed out a month, or two, or three, how does that change Big-Picture-Tesla? An 'investor' isn't looking at today, or tomorrow, or next month, and not even next quarter.

I've never understood people looking for trouble around the next corner, or making a mountain out of a mole hill. Have a little faith already. How many more times must Tesla prove themselves? Have they not already rewarded investors many times over?

Chillax. They got this.

You got me wrong. My point was just that people who are pushed back are more likely to post than those that are not, so the picture you get might be biased (in other words: it is probably less significant than it looks at first). With 'investor' I meant people holding shares - some very long term, some trading day-to-day. For the latter, if a large percentage of deliveries was pushed back, it might influence their decisions. Enough said.

 

[Chickenlittle]

Long term it wont affect Tesla. Just like few freakish fires a year ago, or Broder, or BBC Top Gear with their Roadster test. Who remember Top Gear now other than few Tesla fans?

But missing Q4 guidance will affect short term TSLA price. And there is a reason as to why we got "Short term" forum thread here. Or we do not need it?

Are you looking for a lower entry point? Could you recommend one

 

[Zzzz...]

Are you looking for a lower entry point? Could you recommend one

Around after Q3 ER? Mostly because shorts do have a valid point about Q4 deliveries being optimistic and hard to pull.

On the other hand I've tried to time the market and I'm not trying it anymore.

 

[Krugerrand]

Long term it wont affect Tesla. Just like few freakish fires a year ago, or Broder, or BBC Top Gear with their Roadster test. Who remember Top Gear now other than few Tesla fans?

Most of those and similiar events actually helped Tesla (nothing better than free publicity and a chance to prove to the world who was blowing smoke), and provided a lot of people with second and third chances to get in or get back into TSLA.

But missing Q4 guidance will affect short term TSLA price. And there is a reason as to why we got "Short term" forum thread here. Or we do not need it?

I thought we were talking about delayed Q3 deliveries?

Is this the 'short term' forum thread?

 

[Zzzz...]

Is this the 'short term' forum thread?

This thread is definitely about short term. Tesla missed 2012 delivery guidance by two hundreds units or something - who remember about it? Well if Tesla would miss guidance by 1,000 in Q4 - no one would care about it couple years from now. Just like no one ceres about missing guidance in 2012 when TSLA was around $31. But short term we might(or might NOT) see TSLA at 20% discount from ATH if Tesla could not meet Q4 guidance by even 1000 units. And 1000 units is close to rounding error even if we talk about 35k units delivery per year.

 

[TD1]

I sense TM is planning BIG to beat Q4 guidance by skewing the delivery date between US and overseas market.

That makes sense.
Elon is very creative and effective with keeping the stock price up, and who knows, maybe his comment on the "to high" TSLA price is some reverse psychology line that we peasants cant understand.
And he is just looking for the next big offering to secure enough capital for a fast rollout and expansion of the Freemont factory for the Model 3.
The current factory configuration has a potential max output of 3000 cars/week = 156k cars/year

After the Model 3 tooling installation the output should go to around 10000/week = ~500k cars/year (which is the max output for that factory)
That is an increase of around 230%

So an offering is very much needed for that expansion.

 

[Krugerrand]

This thread is definitely about short term.

Yes, I understand it's 'short term', but this is not specifically the short term 'forum'. But let's refresh ourselves on your opening post:

I wonder if we are about to hear bad news?

Not likely, as I stated earlier. Just how many times must Tesla prove itself to you?

Supplier issue or new assembly line need redesign or something like that?

The world has already been made aware that it took a bit longer to get the new line rolling. Since we know final output is going to be significantly higher than the old line, and we know Elon is a 'crack-the-whip' kindofguy...I'm not betting against.

May be Tesla will lower Q4 guidance during next call?

Pfft! Not on this planet.

 

[Zzzz...]

Just how many times must Tesla prove itself to you?

You are clearly talking about personally me. Ok. Mine core TSLA position was formed between the end of the summer 2012 and end of autumn 2012. Multiple platforms, multiple transactions. Overall I bought around [edited]^&*^&*^[/edited] shares of TSLA. I'm not even sure about average entry price. I was "gambling" at the time trying to capture $$$ on TSLA volatility.

Lets keep rest of mine portfolio size private, but I still think TSLA represents oversized part of it, oversized for a size of investment.

Anyhow when TSLA were running down from ATH of $192 to below $120 I was not the one who worried TOO much - if you want I even could find post on TMC about it. Post that was made when many investors here were arguing that it is Ok to sell to capture downside movement. Those naively(IMHO) assumed they knew when TSLA will reach the bottom... I personally was holding my position and it paid back.

Pfft! Not on this planet.

Are you sure? I'm not. Gambler inside me tells me to offer you a $100 bet - if Tesla would not lower guidance during Q3 ER - you will get free $100. If that wouldn't happens - well what about 20 to one odds? I mean 20 to one definitely mean profit on your side assuming you really meant this "Pfft! Not on this planet." statement. Or such statement was not strong enough??? Ok, ok, I'm sure we could find a respectful enough mod or another member to place our bets(lets say we pay $50 each to him/her) and transfer money by Paypal upfront etc and rely on his/her judgement as to who won.

 

[Chickenlittle]

Yes, I understand it's 'short term', but this is not specifically the short term 'forum'. But let's refresh ourselves on your opening post:

I wonder if we are about to hear bad news?

Not likely, as I stated earlier. Just how many times must Tesla prove itself to you?

Supplier issue or new assembly line need redesign or something like that?

The world has already been made aware that it took a bit longer to get the new line rolling. Since we know final output is going to be significantly higher than the old line, and we know Elon is a 'crack-the-whip' kindofguy...I'm not betting against.

May be Tesla will lower Q4 guidance during next call?

Pfft! Not on this planet.

Thank you for responding. It fatigues me to restate the obvious. Doesn't matter how many shares he has, trying to get price down to get more

 

[Zzzz...]

Doesn't matter how many shares he has

Yes, I got quite a sizable amount of capital in TSLA. Reading you comment, I edited out specific number from mine last reply here. It doesn't matter, correct? Ok.

- - - Updated - - -

he ... trying to get price down to get more

Meditating over this part... Looks like you think that I think I could affect TSLA price by posting something here... Well I'm not that silly! Moreover, I'm not that rich and personally worry more about diversifying mine portfolio rather than investing even more into TSLA. TSLA grew more than organically, not that I'm not happy.