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Climate Change / Global Warming Discussion

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While the "How bad" question is complex the "Is AGW real" question is VERY simple...

- Does CO2 absorb the correct spectrum of light to cause warming? YES!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kGaV3PiobYk

- Does Human activity release enough CO2 to cause the rise in CO2 that we've observed? YES!
If you do the math the 3 Trillion pounds that we emit is sufficient to increase atmospheric CO2 ~5ppm/yr. Observed is ~2ppm.
http://www.newscientist.com/article...ions-are-too-tiny-to-matter.html#.Uz94rtxYXwI

AGW, Climate Change, Global Warming... whatever you want to call it is physically as certain as 2+2=4 is mathematically certain. How bad it's going to be is the only real question and most scientific studies place its severity somewhere between disastrous and cataclysmic.
 
Such tipping points occur quite frequently in science. I have personally witnessed two paradigm shifts where world scientific opinion changed rapidly -- almost overnight. One was in Cosmology, where the “Steady State” theory of the Universe was replaced by the “Big Bang.” This shift was confirmed by the discovery of the “microwave background radiation,” which has already garnered Nobel prizes, and will likely get more.

The other major shift occurred in Continental Drift. After being denounced by the Science Establishment, the hypothesis of Alfred Wegener, initially based on approximate relations between South America and Africa, was dramatically confirmed by the discovery of “sea-floor spreading.”

Logical fallacy. "Previous theories were rejected by the community, but eventually proven correct. Therefore this will also happen with my theory."

Every crackpot who has a "theory" (actually a hypothesis) makes exactly this claim. 99.999% of the time the scientific community is entirely correct in rejecting it.
 
Just gave it another go, and it is being held for moderator approval.

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The just-published NIPCC reports may lead to a paradigm shift about what or who causes current climate changes. All the evidence suggests that Nature rules the climate – not Man.

I agree with the previous comments debunking the nonsense promulgated by the NIPCC and others of their ilk, but would like to investigate the sources and causes of this broad flow of anti-scientific disinformation.

We know from a variety of sources that the climate change counter-movement (denier movement or CCCM) in the United States has spent and is spending billions of dollars (much of it anonymously in the form of so-called "dark money") to artificially manipulate both the public and the political system in an effort (which has been highly successful to date) to prevent the political system from acting in the public interest by taking effective action to reduce GHG emissions.
As noted by Professor Brunel in his 2013 paper analyzing the financial resource mobilization of the organizations that make up the CCCM:

Utilizing IRS data, total annual income is compiled for a sample of CCCM organizations (including advocacy organizations, think tanks, and trade associations). These data are coupled with IRS data on philanthropic foundation funding of these CCCM organizations contained in the Foundation Center's data base. This results in a data sample that contains financial information for the time period 2003 to 2010 on the annual income of 91 CCCM organizations funded by 140 different foundations. An examination of these data shows that these 91 CCCM organizations have an annual income of just over $900 million, with an annual average of $64 million in identifiable foundation support. The overwhelming majority of the philanthropic support comes from conservative foundations. Additionally, there is evidence of a trend toward concealing the sources of CCCM funding through the use of donor directed philanthropies.

See: http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-013-1018-7

This work is further discussed in the Scientific American and in other reports.

See: http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/dark-money-funds-climate-change-denial-effort/
http://phys.org/news/2013-12-koch-brothers-reveals-funders-climate.html
http://www.canadianconsultingengine...ate-change-denial-movement/1002836094/?&er=NA
http://www.desmogblog.com/who-donors-trust
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/feb/14/funding-climate-change-denial-thinktanks-network
http://www.climatenewsnetwork.net/2014/01/dark-money-funds-us-climate-deniers/
http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/dark_money_funds_us_climate_deniers_20140106?ln
http://www.centerforinquiry.net/forums/viewthread/17021/

The Washington Post has reported on the donor network established by the Koch Brothers to collect and manage hundreds of millions of anonymously donated dollars dedicated to causes such as climate change denialism.

See: http://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...7cfd9a-719b-11e3-9389-09ef9944065e_story.html
http://www.democracynow.org/2012/12/5/from_fossil_fuels_to_global_warming
http://www.democracynow.org/2014/1/7/from_funding_climate_deniers_to_shadowy

In addition to supporting climate change denialism, Donors Trust has also been seen to oppose the development of renewable energy (providing further evidence that it is in fact acting on behalf of fossil fuel interests).

See: http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/feb/15/media-campaign-windfarms-conservatives

In addition to the anonymous amounts channelled through dark money channels to fund the Heritage Institute, the NIPCC and other sources of climate change disinformation, fossil fuel interests spend hundreds of millions of dollars on campaign contributions and lobbying (and no doubt are earning a handsome return on their investment).

See: https://www.opensecrets.org/industries/indus.php?ind=E01
https://www.opensecrets.org/industries/indus.php?Ind=E
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/03/10/climate-change-oil-gas_n_4937396.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fossil_fuels_lobby

For a further discussion of the sources and funding of climate change denialism, see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change_denial


The foregoing leads to the obvious question to our denier de jour: Who is paying you how much money to distribute denier disinformation on the Internet? (In asking this question I am assuming that you are not sufficiently stupid and ignorant to actually believe any of the nonsense you have been copying, and I cannot imagine anyone intentionally helping to put future generations at risk on a gratuitous basis.)
 
I replied with a rather lengthy post, supporting my position, unfortunately, it would appear that moderator(s) deleted it, without allowing it to be posted. Sadly, what we see happening in the actual peer review journals for Climate science as well.
@wmarcy: Because you are have posted only a few times, your post went into auto-moderation. I have just released it, providing a link to the original article and trimming down the quoted portion so as not to violate copyright laws.
 
Thanks Robert.

My point is not to prove or disprove current climate model thought, as a economic scientist, I am more interested in the process that is going on in the Climate science world. And of the evangelism that seems to have built up it's drum beat to a crescendo, where otherwise rational people feel it proper and just to talk about putting into prison people who do not go along with the current model. Or peer review journals that have been set up simply to ensure funding flow to climate scientists. I can understand quite well the maneuvering for funding, everyone in the sciences does it. It is the buy in they have been able to create with the general populace that is interesting.
 
wmary,

What evidence for AGW is lacking in your opinion? Were AGW a murder case any rational jury would probably deliberate for ~5 minutes... We know CO2 is capable of altering the climate (It has in the past). We know HOW CO2 alters the climate. We know we emit enough CO2 (3,000,000,000,000 lbs is 5ppm of earths atmosphere) and we know CO2 levels are rising rapidly (>2ppm/yr). What piece is missing?

The argument that climate science is bought and paid for is laughable... Who has deeper pockets, Solyndra or Exxon? The revenue for the ENTIRE solar industry in 2012 was 20% that of Exxon alone ~$75B vs ~$450B. Exxons PROFITS were ~$45B in 2012. If climate science is for sale then why isn't there a SINGLE published article with an alternative hypothesis to AGW? Exxon can buy scientists but they can't buy facts. It's facts that get published and the facts overwhelmingly support AGW.
Powell-Science-Pie-Chart.png

Of the 24 papers rejecting AGW none offered an alternative explanation for the observations.
 
wmary,

What evidence for AGW is lacking in your opinion? Were AGW a murder case any rational jury would probably deliberate for ~5 minutes... We know CO2 is capable of altering the climate (It has in the past). We know HOW CO2 alters the climate. We know we emit enough CO2 (3,000,000,000,000 lbs is 5ppm of earths atmosphere) and we know CO2 levels are rising rapidly (>2ppm/yr). What piece is missing?

The argument that climate science is bought and paid for is laughable... Who has deeper pockets, Solyndra or Exxon? The revenue for the ENTIRE solar industry in 2012 was 20% that of Exxon alone ~$75B vs ~$450B. Exxons PROFITS were ~$45B in 2012. If climate science is for sale then why isn't there a SINGLE published article with an alternative hypothesis to AGW? Exxon can buy scientists but they can't buy facts. It's facts that get published and the facts overwhelmingly support AGW.
View attachment 46600
Of the 24 papers rejecting AGW none offered an alternative explanation for the observations.

Hmmm, the science that I participate in is not consensus based. That is media driven 'science'.

Who has deeper pockets, the US Government, and lets toss in a few dozen other governments around the globe, or Exxon?

I have no answer for you, I think, that answer will show itself given enough time and distance. It is a fascinating exercise in moving a group of people in a certain direction, I know sociologist friends who are absolutely excited that something is (Finally) happening in their branch of science to monitor and examine.

Is it not fascinating also, that in the 70's, the same government bodies and many of the same scientists of today, were declaring us dead with a decade from global cooling. And they ran with that until the public lost interest (From a lack of actual cooling), and they reinvented the same argument, with the same science and same data to prove global warming. I don't expect you to really care, as you are simply rooting for your team to win, and the subsequent ability to force others to do as you think they should (This is the royal 'you' here, I know nothing about you personally, so please do not take it personally). People riot when their team wins/loses a football game, imagine what they will do when they feel their very existence is at stake, and someone gives them a team to root for and a cause to champion? If you were actually interested in the science of the matter, you might want to examine the opposing side in the same light that you examine your own side. AS, you are not looking to prove a point, you are looking to further the actual data.

Know what I mean?

Now, don't get me wrong, I know it will be much easier to simply stifle my speech by calling me a denier (Which would be technically incorrect, as I have not been able to deny or prove anything in climate science), but examine the data and keep an open mind, even if the data does not support your team winning, thats how science is done. (unless you are simply interested in your team winning, or your team getting more funding, then, carry one.)

And then, we should also touch briefly on the fact that Climate Change has become a religion of sorts for some of it's adherents, which means there is no talking with them at all, they are taking things on faith (Especially when they present other peoples data as proof, as opposed to supplying their own data). I prefer not to deal with zealots of any bent, it simply is a futile exercise and I truly do not want to take away something that provides comfort and solace to a person, even if it is siolly.
 
Who has deeper pockets, the US Government, and lets toss in a few dozen other governments around the globe, or Exxon?
Who supplies the most funding for political campaigns? More directly, who does the government actually answer to?
And then, we should also touch briefly on the fact that Climate Change has become a religion of sorts for some of it's adherents, which means there is no talking with them at all, they are taking things on faith (Especially when they present other peoples data as proof, as opposed to supplying their own data). I prefer not to deal with zealots of any bent, it simply is a futile exercise and I truly do not want to take away something that provides comfort and solace to a person, even if it is siolly.
The same is equally true, if not more so, of deniers. Personally I find no comfort in the idea of an overheating planet, and don't know of anyone who does. I do know of many people who are completely uncomfortable with the idea that they may have to change their behaviors if climate change is real, so instead they would rather deny it's existence.
 
Hmmm, the science that I participate in is not consensus based. That is media driven 'science'.

Who has deeper pockets, the US Government, and lets toss in a few dozen other governments around the globe, or Exxon?

So why are various scientific organizations around the world, in different countries, with different languages and cultures, coming up with the same results on greenhouse theory? Are they all being funded by the US Gov too?

I have no answer for you.

Truest statement you've said yet.

Is it not fascinating also, that in the 70's, the same government bodies and many of the same scientists of today, were declaring us dead with a decade from global cooling. And they ran with that until the public lost interest (From a lack of actual cooling), and they reinvented the same argument, with the same science and same data to prove global warming.

As someone who is fiercely passionate about science and history, your understanding of both is very poor. Show me a single statistic from the 1970's where you find that a majority of climate scientists at the time thought that the globe was cooling. Back up this claim with evidence.

I don't expect you to really care, as you are simply rooting for your team to win, and the subsequent ability to force others to do as you think they should (This is the royal 'you' here, I know nothing about you personally, so please do not take it personally). People riot when their team wins/loses a football game, imagine what they will do when they feel their very existence is at stake, and someone gives them a team to root for and a cause to champion? If you were actually interested in the science of the matter, you might want to examine the opposing side in the same light that you examine your own side. AS, you are not looking to prove a point, you are looking to further the actual data.

I am fighting for the side of reason and science, and opposing those that intend to rewrite thousands upon thousands of scientific papers published in hundreds of scientific journals dating all the way back to the 19th century by simply pretending that they don't exist. I have read hundreds of scientific papers on climate papers myself. How many have you read?

Now, don't get me wrong, I know it will be much easier to simply stifle my speech by calling me a denier (Which would be technically incorrect, as I have not been able to deny or prove anything in climate science), but examine the data and keep an open mind, even if the data does not support your team winning, thats how science is done. (unless you are simply interested in your team winning, or your team getting more funding, then, carry one.)

Trust me you are hurting your side of the argument because you are appealing to ignorance, which I told you was a logical fallacy. And everyone here sees that.

And then, we should also touch briefly on the fact that Climate Change has become a religion of sorts for some of it's adherents, which means there is no talking with them at all, they are taking things on faith (Especially when they present other peoples data as proof, as opposed to supplying their own data). I prefer not to deal with zealots of any bent, it simply is a futile exercise and I truly do not want to take away something that provides comfort and solace to a person, even if it is siolly.

Those who claim that a certain branch of science is a religion do not know the definition of either.
 
And then, we should also touch briefly on the fact that Climate Change has become a religion of sorts for some of it's adherents, which means there is no talking with them at all, they are taking things on faith (Especially when they present other peoples data as proof, as opposed to supplying their own data). I prefer not to deal with zealots of any bent, it simply is a futile exercise and I truly do not want to take away something that provides comfort and solace to a person, even if it is siolly.

I addressed this thread in a very technical and scientific way. I always asked people posting here to report scientific data and arguments concerning the very important matter of Climate Change. Climate Change is not a matter of religion but it's a matter of science.
On the contrary I didn't see any scientific arguments reported by you other than quoting sentences told by other people without worrying to have the scientific evidence of what these people said.
For instance I answered to your post reporting a scientific evidence but you didn't answer back to me. You don't need to be a physicist to answer to my post.
IMO the truth is that you don't want to deal with a scientific zealots like me because you don't have the arguments to support your thoughts.
 
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…/Now, don't get me wrong, I know it will be much easier to simply stifle my speech by calling me a denier (Which would be technically incorrect, as I have not been able to deny or prove anything in climate science), but examine the data and keep an open mind, even if the data does not support your team winning, thats how science is done. (unless you are simply interested in your team winning, or your team getting more funding, then, carry one.) [My bold.]
What data? You haven’t posted anything that hasn’t been thoroughly debunked!


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…/And then, we should also touch briefly on the fact that Climate Change has become a religion of sorts for some of it's adherents, which means there is no talking with them at all, they are taking things on faith (Especially when they present other peoples data as proof, as opposed to supplying their own data). I prefer not to deal with zealots of any bent, it simply is a futile exercise and I truly do not want to take away something that provides comfort and solace to a person, even if it is siolly.
The same is equally true, if not more so, of deniers. Personally I find no comfort in the idea of an overheating planet, and don't know of anyone who does. I do know of many people who are completely uncomfortable with the idea that they may have to change their behaviors if climate change is real, so instead they would rather deny it's existence.
Precisely!


Or like this:

…/And then, we should also touch briefly on the fact that Climate Change has become a religion of sorts for some of it's adherents, which means there is no talking with them at all, they are taking things on faith (Especially when they present other peoples data as proof, as opposed to supplying their own data). I prefer not to deal with zealots of any bent, it simply is a futile exercise and I truly do not want to take away something that provides comfort and solace to a person, even if it is siolly. [My bold.]
Oh really now!

To me that is such an utterly and truly false analogy, and here is why:

There is not a single shred of evidence in support of any religion. Period.


But as you can see if you bother to take a look, there is evidence for Man Made Climate Change:

– The CO2-level in both the atmosphere and in the ocean is rising.

– The global average temperature is rising. Both in the atmosphere and in the ocean.

– And, the sea-level is rising.

– And everything else that has been listed and referenced in this thread and elsewhere.


See the difference:

Religion: Zero evidence.

Man Made Climate Change: Plenty of scientific evidence.


The real question is:

What are you basing your position on?

It sure isn’t scientific evidence!

So who is it that really is the religious zealot?


Edit:

Full disclosure with regards to religion: I’m an atheist.
 
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The theory of global cooling was based on a completely different mechanism (sulfur emissions) and was largely negated by the clean air act. The debate at the time was over which would win CO2 or Sulfur. There has never been any significant doubt of what CO2 is capable of. Also, last I checked "science" that isn't consensus driven isn't science. Science by definition is a community activity AKA consensus driven. The peer review process is a key component of the scientific method. If it isn't peer reviewed it isn't science... Stanley PONS and Martin FLEISCHMANN learned that the hard way.

Global Warming in 1972... hasn't really changed in ~40 years.
http://www.fas.harvard.edu/~eps5/writing_assignment/CLIMATE_BKGD/Sawyer_Nature_1972.pdf

Global Cooling in 1971... dependent on particulate emissions now largely eliminated.
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/173/3992/138.abstract

I do kinda feel a little sorry for the fossil fuel industry... even the science that they buy doesn't support their position...:crying:
http://static.berkeleyearth.org/pdf/skeptics-guide-to-climate-change.pdf
Brought to you in part by Koch industries...

Although their position is changing...
"Reducing carbon emissions is good for the environment and good for business." -Halliburton
http://www.halliburton.com/en-US/about-us/sustainability/climate-change-position-statement.page

"CO
2 emissions must be reduced to avoid serious climate change." -Shell
http://www.shell.com/global/environment-society/environment/climate-change.html


 
Of course, it is how I get my funding. :wink:

I certainly hope that you are being well paid for recycling the drivel put out by the NIPCC. :wink:

All that being said, can you please articulate some scientific theory, preferably with citations to some peer-reviewed papers, in support of the positions you have advanced. The absence of any scientific content is quite disappointing (as I have learned much over the years from engaging with, understanding and locating the results of the scientific research which clearly and definitively disproves the denier theory then in fashion).

At this point in time the oil companies, the International Energy Agency and the Petroleum Geologists, and every sceptical scientist of any significance,* have all concurred with the science, leaving Fox News, and a few thousand well paid bagmen and lobbyists, the politicians they are influencing, their PR agencies and other fellow travellers without any plausible source of scientific support.

*I refer in particular to conversion of Richard Muller, of the much vaunted (and Koch funded) Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature Project.
See: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/30/o...imate-change-skeptic.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/20...-and-essentially-all-due-to-carbon-pollution/
http://www.csmonitor.com/Science/20...e-change-denier-now-admits-he-was-wrong-video
http://blogs.berkeley.edu/2014/01/06/the-quiet-failure-of-climate-denial-in-2013/
My reading of Richard Lindzen's recent papers indicate that he does not so much take issue with climate change theory as seek to accentuate the level of uncertainty which remains with respect to the ultimate level of temperature increase (with a view to minimizing the expected extent of the climate change impact).
See: https://www.skepticalscience.com/climate-scientists-take-on-Richard-Lindzen.html
 
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All that being said, can you please articulate some scientific theory, preferably with citations to some peer-reviewed papers, in support of the positions you have advanced. The absence of any scientific content is quite disappointing (as I have learned much over the years from engaging with, understanding and locating the results of the scientific research which clearly and definitively disproves the denier theory then in fashion).

Agree 100%.
 
I am afraid, I simply can not engage with you if you are going to use pejoratives like "Denier". I am happy if you come up with something not quite so loaded. But we both know that "denier" is used to for a specific reason, which truly is beneath a scientist. There is no such thing, in science as a "denier", there is a fellow scientist looking for data.
 
@wmarcy

IMO the word denier is not an offence. You simply deny AGW. I don't understand why you consider it a pejorative. Then I didn't even use the word "denier". True problem is that you didn't produce any scientific argument to support your thesis and you didn't answer to my post.