Climate Change / Global Warming Discussion

[DrLOAC]

Silly argument. You are trying to make a case that Texas has no power engineers.

So here’s what a Texas plant repair engineer is saying.
engineer

Since this is the second time we’ve lost power due to cold weather and nothing was done in the decade since the first time we are having a whole home generator installed this week. When my roof needs to be replaced in a few years I’ll look into solar battery. I can’t trust the electrical infrastructure in TX

 

[ReddyLeaf]

So here’s what a Texas plant repair engineer is saying.
engineer

Since this is the second time we’ve lost power due to cold weather and nothing was done in the decade since the first time we are having a whole home generator installed this week. When my roof needs to be replaced in a few years I’ll look into solar battery. I can’t trust the electrical infrastructure in TX

Seems prudent, especially given the info in that tweet and the fact that there have been more than just two “blue norther” outages. Remember the one around Super Bowl? Same issue, same analysis and suggestions, same lack of weatherization. I fully expect to see additional outages summer and winter, nearly every year into the future, just like the west will have massive fires and smoke. I’ve got my HEPA filters, new MERV 13 heat pump, and personal P100 masks. We had 118F in June, so I’m now planning on how to grow food in the garden at 125F in the future. This is the future that we have given to ourselves and our children. Even if those other 40% could be convinced, and we stopped emitting CO2 right now, the near term future will still have massive disruptions.

 

[Texas Electric]

Here is an analysis of the Texas power failure presented by engineers.

https://www.epeconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/CleanTXGridNext2021KDonohooFactsNumbersWinterStorm20210421.pdf

They seem to be making the point that installed capacity should not have been used for wind and solar.

 

[Texas Electric]

The EIA has a good explanation about installed capacity.

What's the Difference between Installed Capacity and Electricity Generation?

Capacity is the maximum output of electricity that a generator can produce. Generation is the amount of electricity that is produced over a set time.

www.energy.gov

 

[nwdiver]

Here is an analysis of the Texas power failure presented by engineers.

https://www.epeconsulting.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/CleanTXGridNext2021KDonohooFactsNumbersWinterStorm20210421.pdf

They seem to be making the point that installed capacity should not have been used for wind and solar.

IIRC SPP allows ~11% of wind capacity to be used to meet required capacity. But SPP covers a much larger area than ERCOT AND those turbines are probably winterized. Does ERCOT even have a number? This is why regulations exist.

 

[Texas Electric]

The EIA has a good explanation about installed capacity.

What's the Difference between Installed Capacity and Electricity Generation?

Capacity is the maximum output of electricity that a generator can produce. Generation is the amount of electricity that is produced over a set time.

www.energy.gov

I think what the power engineers are trying to tell us is that electrical generation estimates from wind and solar were way overstated in the planning process. Of course that wasn’t the only problem. But I get the impression that everything fell like dominos with the wrong installed capacity calculations.

 

[Texas Electric]

IIRC SPP allows ~11% of wind capacity to be used to meet required capacity. But SPP covers a much larger area than ERCOT AND those turbines are probably winterized. Does ERCOT even have a number? This is why regulations exist.

I am sure ERCOT does. And that was part of the problem the power engineers uncovered. For the next widespread ice storm event in Texas, wind and solar need to be removed from installed capacity. Maybe a once a decade, or once every 3 decades event. The power engineers also said we need to upgrade our transmission as well.

 

[Texas Electric]

I'd like to understand Texas wind energy winterization dilemma. What exactly is winterization? What and how is a component winterized? What is the cost in terms of energy?

Looks like a major research project.

 

[nwdiver]

I am sure ERCOT does. And that was part of the problem the power engineers uncovered. For the next widespread ice storm event in Texas, wind and solar need to be removed from installed capacity. Maybe a once a decade, or once every 3 decades event. The power engineers also said we need to upgrade our transmission as well.

But if the thermal and gas plants hadn't failed they would have been fine. yes?

 

[DrLOAC]

I'd like to understand Texas wind energy winterization dilemma. What exactly is winterization? What and how is a component winterized? What is the cost in terms of energy?

Here’s an overview of wind turbine winterization. (From 2014!)

Prepare Your Renewable Plant for Cold Weather Operations

Although renewable generation is typically less affected by winter weather than gas- and coal-fired plants, it is far from weatherproof. Understanding the risks and preparing properly for them can avoid most problems.

www.powermag.com

It’s basically the same steps as a thermal plant. Insulation and heaters.

For the wind turbines it takes electricity and runs heaters along the blades to prevent icing. It also adds heat to the rotating equipment to keep it in its operating temperature.

 

[nwdiver]

Here’s an overview of wind turbine winterization. (From 2014!)

Prepare Your Renewable Plant for Cold Weather Operations

Although renewable generation is typically less affected by winter weather than gas- and coal-fired plants, it is far from weatherproof. Understanding the risks and preparing properly for them can avoid most problems.

www.powermag.com

It’s basically the same steps as a thermal plant. Insulation and heaters.

For the wind turbines it takes electricity and runs heaters along the blades to prevent icing. It also adds heat to the rotating equipment to keep it in its operating temperature.

Meh.... I'm 100% ok with TX not winterizing their turbines. It's cost-benefit. If it's cheaper to just assume the turbines won't be available on the rare occasion it's too cold then that would make the most sense. The purpose of wind turbines is to reduce fuel consumption. If you can reduce fuel consumption by more annually by installing more MW of cheaper non-winterized turbines then that's what makes the most sense. In places like Iowa it makes perfect sense to winterize or you'd never be able to use them in the winter....

 

[mspohr]

Looks like a major research project.

Clearly too complex for ERCOT.

 

[mspohr]

Wonking Out: Two Cheers for Carbon Tariffs Opinion | Wonking Out: Two Cheers for Carbon Tariffs

But there has been another major policy development: It’s Infrastructure Week, but it’s also Carbon Tariff Week. The Democratic proposal says in general terms, although without specifics, that we should levy tariffs on imports from countries that don’t take sufficient steps to limit greenhouse gas emissions. On the same day, the European Union laid out, in much greater detail, plans to impose a carbon border adjustment mechanism — which I’m afraid everyone will call a carbon tariff, even though CBAM is a great acronym. (See? Bam!)

Given these considerations, it seems almost trivial to point out that carbon tariffs aren’t actually protectionist and should be considered legal under international trade law.

 

[DrLOAC]

Meh.... I'm 100% ok with TX not winterizing their turbines. It's cost-benefit. If it's cheaper to just assume the turbines won't be available on the rare occasion it's too cold then that would make the most sense. The purpose of wind turbines is to reduce fuel consumption. If you can reduce fuel consumption by more annually by installing more MW of cheaper non-winterized turbines then that's what makes the most sense. In places like Iowa it makes perfect sense to winterize or you'd never be able to use them in the winter....

Well I’m not. Since I have to live with the crappy infrastructure (lack of thermal plant winterization included) we are installing a whole house generator for the next time we lose power. Feels like living in the third world.

 

[nwdiver]

Well I’m not. Since I have to live with the crappy infrastructure (lack of thermal plant winterization included) we are installing a whole house generator for the next time we lose power. Feels like living in the third world.

Gas Turbines and the fuel lines that feed that ABSOLUTELY need to be winterized. That's NOT 'cost-benefit' that's reliability. But the purpose of a wind turbine IS NOT to be reliable on an hour-by-hour basis. The purpose of a wind turbine is to reduce gas use by ~30kWh/yr per $ invested. If using non-winterized turbines means you can reduce gas use by ~31kWh/yr per $ invested then that's what should be done because numbers.

 

[eevee-fan]

Well I’m not. Since I have to live with the crappy infrastructure (lack of thermal plant winterization included) we are installing a whole house generator for the next time we lose power. Feels like living in the third world.

If I lived in TX, I would buy solar + home battery. Make sure the home battery can be charged by generator... Your Tesla 12 volt battery attached to a 1 KW inverter can feeds into the generator inlet of the home battery, effectively giving you a weak V2H. This should keep your furnace fan running. If the gas lines freeze or gets cut off, you can leave the home battery to run the fridge and camp out inside your Tesla.

 

[Texas Electric]

We have options in Texas. In fact, we have electricity plans that use all green energy. They’re more expensive, but available for those who are willing to pay extra.

 

[nwdiver]

We have options in Texas. In fact, we have electricity plans that use all green energy. They’re more expensive, but available for those who are willing to pay extra.

Wind and solar are actually the cheapest sources of energy. They just make gas, coal and nuclear more expensive since rising fixed costs are spread over fewer units of energy sold.

 

[Texas Electric]

Wind and solar are actually the cheapest sources of energy. They just make gas, coal and nuclear more expensive since rising fixed costs are spread over fewer units of energy sold.

View attachment 685744

Guess what everybody. I am moving soon to a house in Katy, TX. I plugged in the zip code and I have a choice of 77 electric plans for the zip. The green energy plans used to be more expensive. Not any more! There are green energy plans that are priced the same as the mixed energy plans - around 8-10cents per kWh!! I just now found that out. Thought y’all would like to know.

 

[Texas Electric]

But if the thermal and gas plants hadn't failed they would have been fine. yes?

I think so. One of the ironic things that happened was that some of our power plants lost power which screwed up the firing up process to meet the high demand.