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Charity bet #3: first Starship in orbit (redux)

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And @DandAQ bites the dust leaving @ICUDoc in the catbird seat. August 2023 and beyond are still unclaimed, hopefully we won't have to go there...

It is getting close to when I should open up a bet on when SpaceX will spin off Starlink. It could very well happen next year. I'll wait a few months I think before starting up that one - what do you guys think?
LET'S GO!!!!
 
So as predicted above, looks like 4/20 will be the date, of course. Remember that the conditions of this bet is that Starship arrive to ground level intact, but doesn’t need to land. I believe the current plan is for Starship to re enter and then belly flop and then crash into the ocean at terminal velocity. So, if it doesn’t break up before hitting the ocean, that will count as success for this bet.
 
So as predicted above, looks like 4/20 will be the date, of course. Remember that the conditions of this bet is that Starship arrive to ground level intact, but doesn’t need to land. I believe the current plan is for Starship to re enter and then belly flop and then crash into the ocean at terminal velocity. So, if it doesn’t break up before hitting the ocean, that will count as success for this bet.
This means that this mission has to be 100% successful as defined by SpaceX for the bet to be considered a win? I think that is too onerous. The bet should be considered complete if the launch is successful.
 
I feel with these bets like some desert explorers, grimly soldiering on towards mirage after mirage only to be disappointed again. Most of our expedition has died with only a few survivors left. I took the August date for my 4th try (sob), but I fear these bets will fizzle out with no winners. But I will keep the flame alive, even if my charity contribution ends up costing me $500 in the end 😂
 
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From Ashlee Vance’s Twitter spaces interview of Elon Musk seven hours ago:

About 1,000 changes to Starshipfrom last attempt. Late stage change is hot staging. Light upper stage engines while some first stage engines are still on. Must protect top of booster from blast. Meaningful payload to orbit increase, roughly 10% to orbit from this. Need vents for upper stage engines to exhaust.

Launchpad upgrades and booster and ship will be ready in about six weeks. So Mid August right now.

Higher thrust to weight liftoff this time, so less time spent near the ground.

Engines on last rocket were a hodgepod. Built and tested over a period of a year. Hot gas manifold improvements to mitigate hot gas leakage (Expansion of materials can cause gaps). Tighter torques on bolts.

SpaceX has invested over $2B into Starship, $3B by end of year.