2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[EinSV]

But does M3 customer deliveries fall under news or rumor? Also are we buying the rumor and selling the news? or selling the rumor and buying the news?

Since shorts piled in to the tune of 5 million shares since the production snafus began I think they could start feeling increasing pressure as problems get solved and production ramps, which seems to be happening.

Customer deliveries are a part of that. Earlier this week there was still speculation that the Model 3s in the lots had something wrong or missing and wouldn’t be delivered soon. That does not seem to be the case.

 

[Fifield]

It looks like the daily chart is setting up a bullish cup and handle continuation pattern, which makes sense given the set of events we're expecting.

This could play out because of increased buying interest and subdued selling pressure as we near the quarterly deliveries number, which should move TSLA pps into the $340-350+ range over the seven trading sessions leading up to Jan 4th (guessing it's released between Jan 3rd and 4th trading sessions), with a breakout from this range once delivery numbers are confirmed >guidance.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Since shorts piled in to the tune of 5 million shares since the production snafus began I think they could start feeling increasing pressure as problems get solved and production ramps, which seems to be happening. Customer deliveries are just a part of that.

Or the shorts could be thinking that the longs are delusional, bidding the price up from $300s to $330s just based on a few dozens enthusiasts reporting that they're getting their cars (not nearly 100s or 1000s), and lot fulls of M3 at Fremont that could be interpreted as issues with missing parts, QA delay, shipping delay, demand softening, etc.

I actually think this is the more likely scenario for the hardcore shorts like Spiegel and Chanos. It's hard to accept but happens more often that we think, that people can look at the same set of facts and come to completely opposite conclusions. Add to that, people will ignore facts that don't suit their belief. The signs that we see here are easily interpreted as bad, or at least dismissed by this group of short.

Traders, who can opportunistically go either short or long, will probably be more apprehensive to hold a short position through the holiday season. I suspect those have already started to get out as part of the recent rise from $300.

 

[Richgoogol]

What was that just now? Break down of technical?

 

[bdy0627]

I added a few more March $320 calls today. Had to sell a few shares of SHOP and ANET to do it, but I fully believe these calls will outperform the investments I sold to buy them.

 

[Words of HABIT]

What was that just now? Break down of technical?[/QUOTE

Richgoogal,
A 1% change is not a break down, but par for the course for TSLA.
Bitcoin is a break down.
Daniel

 

[Richgoogol]

Richgoogal,
A 1% change is not a break down, but par for the course for TSLA.
Bitcoin is a break down.
Daniel

My bad. Been following Option Sniper too much lately. Don’t mean it in such a dramatic fashion.

 

[Richgoogol]

Can someone please check to see if the max pain is now 328?

 

[MitchJi]

Nice short small article:
Tesla Inc. Crushes Competition in Owner Satisfaction
Tesla Inc. Crushes Competition in Owner Satisfaction

The electric vehicle innovator just reminded the rest of the auto industry why they need to take their EV plans seriously.

For a third year in a row, electric-car maker Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) topped Consumer Reports' owner satisfaction survey, besting brands like Subaru and Honda, and finishing well above Volkswagen-owned Porsche, which took second place.

Tesla's high owner satisfaction ratings reflect both the attractiveness of fully electric, long-range vehicles and Tesla's vertically integrated approach to vehicle design.
<Snip>
Growing respect for Tesla
Tesla's soaring sales, strong customer satisfaction ratings, improving reliability, and off-the-charts demand for its new Model 3 have made the automaker impossible to ignore. Indeed, the company has transformed itself from a niche player into a true competitor to the long-established automakers -- at least according to a top exec at the world's largest, Volkswagen.

"In the old world it is Toyota, Hyundai, and the French carmakers. In the new world it is Tesla," Volkswagen brand CEO Herbert Diess told Reuters when asked about who his company' main competitor is. "Tesla belongs among the competitors which has abilities that we currently do not have," Diess said. He went on to point out that about half of Tesla's engineers are software experts; at Volkswagen, it's a much smaller percentage.

Similarly, Porsche North America CEO Klaus Zellmer recently told CNBC that the automaker has "lots of respect for Tesla," noting that his company has lost some customers to Tesla due to the electric-car maker's better connectivity, features and technology. That's a significant change in tone compared to just over two years ago, when the former Porsche CEO Matthias Mueller, who is now the CEO of Volkswagen Group, said he was ignoring Tesla. "I cannot say anything about Tesla." He told The Wall Street Journal. "I don't know anything about Tesla."

Tesla's vertically integrated computers and software enable it to regularly release over-the-air software updates to its entire fleet of vehicles, adding features like Autopilot, faster acceleration, improved energy usage, sound system upgrades, and more. While other automakers are increasingly able to offer similar over-the-air upgrades, they're still well behind Tesla's software prowess.

Tesla's top rank for the third year in a row on Consumer Reports' owner satisfaction survey is another reminder why global automakers should be taking their electric-vehicle plans seriously -- and it's a good sign for the company's investors just as the automaker is significantly ramping up production of its lower-priced, high-volume Model 3.

 

[bdy0627]

Solid short attack again at end of day. Buyers are done shopping for the day...

 

[bdy0627]

I'm guessing these end of day short attacks will be a way of life next week too with the lower volume holiday trading. It has been pretty effective for them lately. I would absolutely love to see some big news this weekend on Model 3 production to trap these bozos on Tuesday.

 

[MitchJi]

McClaren announces (reading between the lines) that they can’t compete with the Tesla Roadster via electrek:
McLaren confirms having an all-electric supercar test mule, still not satisfied with performance
<Snip>
Parry-Williams’ new comments are now casting doubts on the automaker’s ambitions to go all-electric:

“Let’s say you want to drive on track for half an hour. If that was an EV, that car would [need to] have over 500 miles of [road] EV range, and it would be flat as a pancake at the end. The energy required to do really high performance on track is staggering. And then you have to recharge it.”
<Snip>
All-electric vehicles are currently perfect for short bursts of power, but a constant high power output is hard on the battery pack and other power electronics.

Yet, several automakers are pushing the segment to go battery-only, especially newcomers like Nio and Rimac.

Then there’s the next-gen Tesla Roadster, which pushes the bar even higher for all supercars in many aspects, but Tesla didn’t elaborate on the vehicle’s capacity to sustain power for longer periods of time.

It’s one of the last aspects of motoring where EVs still need to prove themselves and maybe the new Roadster will take care of it if established supercar makers don’t.
<Snip>

 

[Thumper]

Would love to see the new roadster run at Lemans with a battery swap system.

 

[Curt Renz]

The TSLA Max Pain based on Thursday's closing prices was $330. But that can change during a trading session. Based on the afternoon TSLA price and volume pattern, the hedge funds and market makers appeared to have targeted $325, and effectively corralled TSLA there for the final twenty minutes of trading. That would have been relatively easy to do with so many of the usual traders taking off early for the holiday weekend. Of course those who traded shares to artificially affect the price, would likely reverse their positions as soon as possible.

For those unfamiliar, as options are about to expire, manipulators often will attempt to push the closing share price to a level where option buyers lose the maximum amount of what they paid for their options, thus allowing the option writers to keep most of their earlier received premiums. Option buyers tend to be retail traders, while option writers are largely professionals.

Merry Christmas (or whatever) to everyone here at TMC.

 

[bdy0627]

The TSLA Max Pain based on Thursday's closing prices was $330. But that can change during a trading session. Based on the afternoon TSLA price and volume pattern, the hedge funds and market makers appeared to have targeted $325, and effectively corralled TSLA there for the final twenty minutes of trading. That would have been relatively easy to do with so many of the usual traders taking off early for the holiday weekend. Of course those who traded shares to artificially affect the price, would likely reverse their positions as soon as possible.

For those unfamiliar, as options are about to expire, manipulators often will attempt to push the closing share price to a level where option buyers lose the maximum amount of what they paid for their options, thus allowing the option writers to keep most of their earlier received premiums. Option buyers tend to be retail traders, while option writers are largely professionals.

Merry Christmas (or whatever) to everyone here at TMC.

I didn't even consider that because I thought max pain was $330. That certainly makes sense if it was lower. Great point about reversing their positions as soon as possible. Tuesday could be interesting, especially with any good news this weekend. If there is a morning dip on Tuesday, that may prove to be a great time to add as we head toward the end of the month.

 

[GoTslaGo]

Note to self. Check max pain on Friday’s near closing.

 

[jhm]

OK, bored at work, only Norway stats to save me from brain-death. Here's a little graph I made, which shows some interesting stuff: 2x deliveries this year compared with any previous, Model S deliveries this year greater than S+X last year, Model X deliveries 1000 more than Model S in 2017...

And still counting

View attachment 267902

Your boredom paid off. I like this chart. To me this shows how important product diversity is. It looks like Norway may have stable demand for about 4000 Model S, but maybe stable demand for Model X could come in at 4000 as well. Without the Model X would we still be looking at just 4000 units? How will Model 3 and Semi impact this?

 

[Navin]

I do wonder if we have the perfect storm of shorts taking advantage of light volume, end of the year selling to lock in gains, end of the year selling for those who bought high to take tax losses, combined with the fear of the unknown on production/delivery numbers (although one would think that this fear would have been assuaged a bit by some of the recent info flowing on all models, including the Model 3).

Notsosure are we?

 

[ZsoZso]

Notsosure are we?

 

[DragonWatch]

I called Seattle (WA) service center yesterday about detailing Xena (MX). As the conversation was ending and me taking advantage of the question, “can I help you with anything else,” ~ I pounced and asked how deliveries were going with M3s and he replied ~ pause ~ “I can not tell you that, but I saw three in the wild yesterday.” Now, like a typical three year old, I know he is at work from 8 am to 5 pm (assumption) and probably commutes (assumption) on I5 to and from work. So, did he see these three while commuting? If he did, then there must be a lot more than just the three loose in Seattle; just saying due to the odds. Or, or did he see three from his service desk going home with happy as dog poo customers with their new Model 3s?
Only Elon knows for sure
Enjoy Happy Feet Day