Tesla's revenue has the potential to rise by 20x from $7 billion in 2016 to $150 billion in 2020. ... How would this affect your percentile analysis?
Instead of shares outstanding or market cap, you may want to look at shorted value ($10 billion) vs. float (which should exclude long-term investors like T. Rowe and Elon's shares), and it is small. How would this compare to April 2013?
Plugging in that growth rate puts a move of equal magnitude in the 95th percentile of likely trading range (and projects a $1 trillion market cap by 2021). I do not assign a high level of probability to that outcome, though. Is that your median guidance, best case projection, intuition?
And yes, short interest as % of float is 27% now vs 31% in 2013, both very high. I do think the move will be similar, I'm just not projecting 5x within in a few months.
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