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Exactly (as per AustinEV's post): as I wrote elsewhere, if you're hauling X kg Y km you'll use # cells; if you're hauling 2X kg 3X km you'll use a # commensurate with that AND the spacing of swap sites. Never have to incur the inefficiency of hauling more weight of batteries than some minimum.
DurandalAI
Member
What are the three biggest costs for hauling freight in trucks?
#1 Fuel - If you're charging instead of filling with diesel, you're saving money. But more on this later.
#2 Equipment - Purchase and maintenance. Maintenance will be reduced dramatically with an EV drivetrain
#3 Drivers - Your drivers want to go as fast as legally possible, as they get paid per mile. Incidentally you do as well. Cut out the driver costs, and you save on what you pay them per mile... but you also save....
Driving a slower speed, you're burning less fuel. Most customers care about cost instead of a couple of hours early/late. This lessens the electricity consumed. If you have charging stations every X miles which would be calculated as to the number of miles one of these trucks can go on a 250kWh battery, you're working out those logistics.
Since the truck will (eventually) not have a driver, we don't care that it takes 4 hours to charge. It simply starts back up when it's done.
Now we're going to reference #1, if we're really not concerned about speed, we can go to the next spot and sit until the evening to charge when it's cheap... or automated battery swap where batteries are charged on off-peak hours.
The main thing is, when you have automated trucks, you don't have drivers that need resting, so they could travel and charge 24/7 no issue. Fleets with predetermined routes, such as retailers like WALMART, TARGET, etc can easily recoup the extra capital outlay for the new EV rigs versus the diesel rigs in a short order, versus one-off carriers. Tesla needs to market hard to these companies where they know they're going to have X number of trucks traveling a certain route on a predictable pattern/rate because then it's really easy to plan out where to put those charging and/or battery swap stations.
#1 Fuel - If you're charging instead of filling with diesel, you're saving money. But more on this later.
#2 Equipment - Purchase and maintenance. Maintenance will be reduced dramatically with an EV drivetrain
#3 Drivers - Your drivers want to go as fast as legally possible, as they get paid per mile. Incidentally you do as well. Cut out the driver costs, and you save on what you pay them per mile... but you also save....
Driving a slower speed, you're burning less fuel. Most customers care about cost instead of a couple of hours early/late. This lessens the electricity consumed. If you have charging stations every X miles which would be calculated as to the number of miles one of these trucks can go on a 250kWh battery, you're working out those logistics.
Since the truck will (eventually) not have a driver, we don't care that it takes 4 hours to charge. It simply starts back up when it's done.
Now we're going to reference #1, if we're really not concerned about speed, we can go to the next spot and sit until the evening to charge when it's cheap... or automated battery swap where batteries are charged on off-peak hours.
The main thing is, when you have automated trucks, you don't have drivers that need resting, so they could travel and charge 24/7 no issue. Fleets with predetermined routes, such as retailers like WALMART, TARGET, etc can easily recoup the extra capital outlay for the new EV rigs versus the diesel rigs in a short order, versus one-off carriers. Tesla needs to market hard to these companies where they know they're going to have X number of trucks traveling a certain route on a predictable pattern/rate because then it's really easy to plan out where to put those charging and/or battery swap stations.
Oh, truck expert. What about designing containers with built-in batteries? When off-loaded, batteries are recharged as the product is unloaded. Just spit ballin. Trucks continuously on the move, pick up new containers, pick up new batteries. Containers sized and rated for "x" miles at full weight.
T3slaTulips
Member
A trucker in the reddit thread telling me they can run non-stop with multiple drivers and the cost per mile goes down when they do so. The only way I can imagine that to be true is if the off-duty driver isn't paid, yet also is stuck in a truck instead of being at home free to enjoy one's non-paid hours.
Plus... Why did Elon announce the September semi-truck reveal today? If the 1Q ER were bad, wouldn't he save that good news for the ER or for damage control shortly thereafter? Good news announced today has the net effect of giving TSLA a shot at trading in the 300s at the time the ER takes place. The combination of 300-something SP at the time of a good ER could be the ticket to send TSLA galloping to heights that will force many shorts to abandon their positions. Hmm.
I was debating selling my options today and buying back in figuring earnings would be mid to late may and not much news in the next 3-4 weeks. Glad I didnt, the may 3 earning release made me second guess long enough to see Elon tweet. The similarities between now and Q1 2013 earnings release and tsnumai of hurt are seeming more than coincidence. Figure it's worth the risk.
TrendTrader007
Active Member
Exactly what Anne Boleyn told me!
TrendTrader007
Active Member
That is so real ! I fully expect TSLA to gap up big time after ER and make a run for $400+ in short order
TrendTrader007
Active Member
I can not overemphasize the striking similarities between April 2013 and April 2017. I did not expect TSLA charts to follow the 2013 script so closely. but it is. I can't deny the obvious. I can't help but get increasingly bullish, more than I am, if that is possible.
I'll post comparison charts sometime over the weekend but suffice it to say that it is NOT looking good for the shorts. Somewhere on the not too distant horizon there is a perfect storm brewing and it's coming straight toward shortville
Shorts be scared. Be very scared
I'll post comparison charts sometime over the weekend but suffice it to say that it is NOT looking good for the shorts. Somewhere on the not too distant horizon there is a perfect storm brewing and it's coming straight toward shortville
Shorts be scared. Be very scared
AnneBoleyn
Anne Boleyn
Here's my thoughts-
One- the semi release is revolutionary and will change our economy in unimaginable ways. Distributors/retailers will not be burdened by the cost of diesel fuel, and have to raise their pricing based upon skyrocketing fuel costs and product delivery becomes faster, more effective, and cheaper. Not to mention how government econ can grow if they're wise enough to use Tesla; our delivery of mail, equipment, etc. will be enhanced 10-fold. It's like the pony express versus the freight train! We are literally seeing history in the making, at epic proportions.
The medical field can soon have electric driven paramedic vehicles to where everyone within the ambulance is able to provide patient care versus driving...
On another note- not to be a Debbie Downer, but be sure the oil lobbyist, American diesel companies, and some very powerful entities are going to fight this progression tooth and nail- oh yes "Tesla is taking hard working Americans out of business or out of a job" oil and diesel fuel are the "backbone of this country" (even though most of it doesn't even come from here anymore); whatever tripe they want to spin to try and pass rigorous limitations on these savvy, economic, and envirentmally sound innovations.
However, if people continue to stop short changing Tesla, stick with it for the long haul (no pun intended), and put their money with progress, we will see a revolutionary change truly capable of boosting our planet in the best of ways.
IBM couldn't stop Apple, and those who invested long ago are reaping the benefits; lets all do the same!
One- the semi release is revolutionary and will change our economy in unimaginable ways. Distributors/retailers will not be burdened by the cost of diesel fuel, and have to raise their pricing based upon skyrocketing fuel costs and product delivery becomes faster, more effective, and cheaper. Not to mention how government econ can grow if they're wise enough to use Tesla; our delivery of mail, equipment, etc. will be enhanced 10-fold. It's like the pony express versus the freight train! We are literally seeing history in the making, at epic proportions.
The medical field can soon have electric driven paramedic vehicles to where everyone within the ambulance is able to provide patient care versus driving...
On another note- not to be a Debbie Downer, but be sure the oil lobbyist, American diesel companies, and some very powerful entities are going to fight this progression tooth and nail- oh yes "Tesla is taking hard working Americans out of business or out of a job" oil and diesel fuel are the "backbone of this country" (even though most of it doesn't even come from here anymore); whatever tripe they want to spin to try and pass rigorous limitations on these savvy, economic, and envirentmally sound innovations.
However, if people continue to stop short changing Tesla, stick with it for the long haul (no pun intended), and put their money with progress, we will see a revolutionary change truly capable of boosting our planet in the best of ways.
IBM couldn't stop Apple, and those who invested long ago are reaping the benefits; lets all do the same!
A couple very separate thoughts.
1. I think it's obvious this move will not be the same magnitude of 2013, even if it is similar. Still, even if pointless, I wanted to see what the price movements would look like with today's prices and half the magnitude. This is them, based on prices leading up to the 2013 Q1 earnings and the week after. Not bad, and I think within the range of likelier possibilities at this point:
Date - Close
3/22/2013 - 278.06
3/25/2013 - 281.47
3/26/2013 - 282.71
3/27/2013 - 283.84
3/28/2013 - 282.82
4/1/2013 - 305.47
4/2/2013 - 307.01
4/3/2013 - 294.86
4/4/2013 - 298.27
4/5/2013 - 295.87
4/8/2013 - 297.60
4/9/2013 - 292.61
4/10/2013 - 297.71
4/11/2013 - 304.20
4/12/2013 - 304.80
4/15/2013 - 303.11
4/16/2013 - 311.70
4/17/2013 - 311.18
4/18/2013 - 316.88
4/19/2013 - 320.10
4/22/2013 - 328.95
4/23/2013 - 332.02
4/24/2013 - 329.85
4/25/2013 - 335.74
4/26/2013 - 332.74
4/29/2013 - 346.76
4/30/2013 - 343.20
5/1/2013 - 340.54
5/2/2013 - 343.65
5/3/2013 - 345.30
5/6/2013 - 363.86
5/7/2013 - 348.90
5/8/2013 - 349.95
5/9/2013 - 400.99
5/10/2013 - 428.59
5/13/2013 - 469.99
5/14/2013 - 452.89
5/15/2013 - 458.89
5/16/2013 - 486.67
5/17/2013 - 483.86
1. I think it's obvious this move will not be the same magnitude of 2013, even if it is similar. Still, even if pointless, I wanted to see what the price movements would look like with today's prices and half the magnitude. This is them, based on prices leading up to the 2013 Q1 earnings and the week after. Not bad, and I think within the range of likelier possibilities at this point:
Date - Close
3/22/2013 - 278.06
3/25/2013 - 281.47
3/26/2013 - 282.71
3/27/2013 - 283.84
3/28/2013 - 282.82
4/1/2013 - 305.47
4/2/2013 - 307.01
4/3/2013 - 294.86
4/4/2013 - 298.27
4/5/2013 - 295.87
4/8/2013 - 297.60
4/9/2013 - 292.61
4/10/2013 - 297.71
4/11/2013 - 304.20
4/12/2013 - 304.80
4/15/2013 - 303.11
4/16/2013 - 311.70
4/17/2013 - 311.18
4/18/2013 - 316.88
4/19/2013 - 320.10
4/22/2013 - 328.95
4/23/2013 - 332.02
4/24/2013 - 329.85
4/25/2013 - 335.74
4/26/2013 - 332.74
4/29/2013 - 346.76
4/30/2013 - 343.20
5/1/2013 - 340.54
5/2/2013 - 343.65
5/3/2013 - 345.30
5/6/2013 - 363.86
5/7/2013 - 348.90
5/8/2013 - 349.95
5/9/2013 - 400.99
5/10/2013 - 428.59
5/13/2013 - 469.99
5/14/2013 - 452.89
5/15/2013 - 458.89
5/16/2013 - 486.67
5/17/2013 - 483.86
Were they these Solar Bonds--- 6.50% Solar Bonds, Series 2016/13-18M?
jschwefel
Tesla fan/TSLA, Model Y and Cybertruck owner.
Does anyone else find it interesting that nothing was mentioned about the Model Y in today's tweet storm? It seems it would be ahead of the pickup and the semi. Makes me think more good news is on the way.
What are the chances it's part of the Model 3 reveal in July?
What are the chances it's part of the Model 3 reveal in July?FYI:
CBOE Put/Call ratio took a jump to 0.96 (had been hovering between 0.55 to 0.75 for the past two months).
ISEE Call/Put is 105 (for equities), also getting low. Previously had hovered around the 160s-190s.
Both suggest a developing bearish sentiment, and typically implies potential buy signals for the market as a whole. And they are becoming synchronous, unlike before. Cut off >1.0-1.2 for CBOE, and <65-100 for ISEE.
Also AAII is 29% bullish (+0.7% from prev week), 33.6% neutral (+1.6%), and 37.4% bearish (-2.2%).
CBOE Put/Call ratio took a jump to 0.96 (had been hovering between 0.55 to 0.75 for the past two months).
ISEE Call/Put is 105 (for equities), also getting low. Previously had hovered around the 160s-190s.
Both suggest a developing bearish sentiment, and typically implies potential buy signals for the market as a whole. And they are becoming synchronous, unlike before. Cut off >1.0-1.2 for CBOE, and <65-100 for ISEE.
Also AAII is 29% bullish (+0.7% from prev week), 33.6% neutral (+1.6%), and 37.4% bearish (-2.2%).
racer26
Active Member
Depends how fast you go.
I ran some numbers back around a year ago. Maybe someone can dig out my old analysis.
If memory serves, a typical drag calc for a semi fully loaded to the maximum allowable weight and running 60 mph for 11 hours needed around 1200-1500kWh.
If you think about it from the point of view of the long term mission, Musk's goal is to prove that *all* transport can be done without fossil fuels. Accordingly, he's prioritizing going after the segments perceived as "difficult" by the rest of the world. He ignored city cars and went for long-distance travel; he ended the reputation of electric cars as "slow" or "small" by building supercars; next come the long-distance semi and the pickup truck, both segments being ignored by others. The segments seen as "easier" are already being done by someone else, so he doesn't have to do them personally. Probably.
Remember J B Straubel wanted to go straight to airplanes! But Musk said the tech wasn't ready for that yet. When it is, you can *expect* him to start a company to build an electric jumbo jet design.
These are the "Solar Bonds"? Yeah, they already stopped issuing new ones. I'm a little surprised they're buying out the ones which are not due until 2018, but I guess they are getting a better interest rate somewhere else.
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