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2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

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Tesla’s Model 3 Is Cool, but No Parking Money in the Stock

Here are his takeaways from his meetings with management:
(1) Management expressed confidence in achieving its revised Model 3 production timetable, with the initial allotment consisting of higher ASP models; (2) Management expressed confidence in achieving its 25% gross margin target for the Model 3

note his PT is 185

JPMorgan rated TSLA 34 times since 2012.
Have they ever been bullish once? No.
Have they ever been right once? No.
Do they have a large short/Put position? I would be surprised if they don't.
Is there conflict of interest? No.

Will they suffer a lot in the next few years? We will see. I will have no sympathy for this company, and Goldman Sachs.
 
JPMorgan rated TSLA 34 times since 2012.
Have they ever been bullish once? No.
Have they ever been right once? No.
Do they have a large short/Put position? I would be surprised if they don't.
Is there conflict of interest? No.

Will they suffer a lot in the next few years? We will see. I will have no sympathy for this company, and Goldman Sachs.
In 2020, when Goldman Sachs fires a bunch of people who made the wrong bet on Tesla, they will be driving home in their now worthelss Italian ICE cars
goldman%2Bevacuates.jpg
 
"Ever" is a long time. I think Tesla will advertise once we are all driving EVs and Tesla is just another car company.

Question #1: Why advertise when people want more than Tesla can possibly make for years and years into the future?

Question #2: Why pay for advertising when people give Tesla all the free advertising they could ever want?

Fleets of autonomous, electric vehicles will dominate the transportation industry before Tesla ever needs to pay for advertising. TSLA will pay a dividend before Tesla pays for advertising.
 
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Ok then. If that's true, the 80% charge on a 100 kw battery would be 3 minutes. Just basic math - though I'm sure it's not nearly that simple. In theory it is.
Perhaps a classical analogy will help (yes I know, first principles only, but) :

"If one woman can have a baby in nine months, why not put nine women on the task and get it done in only one month?"

Can you spot that fallacy?
 
It's not the power delivery that's limiting charge times it's the battery chemistry. Just because you can charge 400kWh in 30 minutes doesn't mean you can use that same power level to charge a smaller battery in less time. You'd cook the smaller pack.

That's like saying that the 10 light bulbs in my house each use 1 amp, so I am just going use one bulb and pump 10A through it and get the same amount of light .... darn that only lasted 10 ms.

Consider a 100kWh S battery pack, you can put 80 kWh in 30 minutes with a SC.
If you had 10 such packs and 10 SCs, you could put 800kWh into them (in parallel).

This is what the Semi does, it has multiple packs, and 4 pairs of contacts in the charge port. Each pair charges one or more packs. The packs charge in parallel.

Now, some have suggested that it might be possible to charge an S pack faster by reconfiguring its internal modules so that they can be charged in parallel. This would work, but requires some complicated wiring and electronics -- I have assume that this was too expensive for the benefit.

A 100kWh pack allows you to receive 80kWh in 30 minutes. Having a 200kWh battery would allow you to receive that 80kWh in 15 min. So larger packs have benefits over just range.
 
I think he misinterpreted what was said. I believe it was a partial charge in 30 minutes, which is already possible.

Tesla says Semi will be able to charge 0 - 400 in 30 minutes. Today Model S can charge to 80% in 30 minutes.
It appears that Tesla is either close to Supercharger improvements that will shave 10 min. off the 80% full time, or expects to do so
before the Semi is delivered.
 
Your math is grossly wrong, by about 10x. You might want to recalculate.

I was off by 33% in my solar for east coast, and mathed wrong for Walmart, but I can only find an error of 3X worst case, where are you finding the other 3X worth of error?

My truck numbers were doubled for the two Walmart cases should have been 13 and 125.

740 m^2 * 1kW/m^2 (solar irradience) * 20% (solar panel efficiency) * 90% (battery storage loss) * 6 hours= 799.2 kWh.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_irradiance#/media/File:SolarGIS-Solar-map-North-America-en.png (US is mostly > 1.1kW per M^2)
Tesla Powerpack (added 2% due to DC output to tractor)
http://news.energysage.com/what-are-the-most-efficient-solar-panels-on-the-market/ 20% is in the upper end

Better data including weather issues. Most of US is better than 4kWh/m^2 per day 4*740m^2 = 2,960kWh * 20% * 90% = 532kWh, so I'm off by 33% for east coast/ mid west (total error 0f 2/.67 = 3x for Walmart, where is other 3x?). Need 1,113 m^2 (12,000 ft^2) there. So an average warehouse supports > 3 trucks, an average Walmart almost 9, and a Walmart distribution center 83 trucks a day anywhere in the Continental US.


national_photovoltaic_2009-01.jpg
 
Now, some have suggested that it might be possible to charge an S pack faster by reconfiguring its internal modules so that they can be charged in parallel. This would work, but requires some complicated wiring and electronics -- I have assume that this was too expensive for the benefit.

That idea incorrect (if I understand what you are saying)
Putting cell/ modules in parallel allows you to increase the current you charge with, but the power stays the same because the voltage is divided by the same factor you widened the pack by. Each cell has a voltage and can only handle a certain current. It they were 1V and 1A amp, you could have 10V x 1A or 1V x 10 A (or 2x5, 5x2) it's all 10 watts.
Putting all cell/modules in series allows you to reduce the current you supply to the stack, and thus the resistive losses.
 
Why does your charge rate get divided by 10? If you can deliver the electricity that fast to a 1000 kwh battery, why not a 100? I'm not saying the current cars could support it, and maybe it isn't possible or feasible to install needed wiring and cooling for this high rate into a sedan, but surely there is an area in between what is currently on the S and what is on the semi. So no, maybe it isn't possible to reach the 3 or 6 minute number, but possibly 10 minutes is realistic.

I'm under the impression from various prior postings that the Semi will utilize some number of independently chargeable packs/subpacks to reach whatever it's KWh capacity will be. Then each of those can be charged by the same number of Supercharger units. Each sub pack could charge to 80% of its capacity in 30 minutes. The charging equipment would be delivering a total of 6 - 10X KW compared to charging an S, X, 3. It's crazy to imagine they will be able to ram power into the cells 10 times as fast as they do today.
 
How can one understand the all-in cost for Tesla, when we don't know the price, and Tesla can't possibly know what their 1 million mile warranty is going to cost them, nor do we know what the electricity is going to cost them?

See my post from 1 - 2 days ago. A million mile no breakdown guarantee is NOT a 1 million mile warranty. Huge difference.
 
I was off by 33% in my solar for east coast, and mathed wrong for Walmart, but I can only find an error of 3X worst case, where are you finding the other 3X worth of error?

My truck numbers were doubled for the two Walmart cases should have been 13 and 125.

740 m^2 * 1kW/m^2 (solar irradience) * 20% (solar panel efficiency) * 90% (battery storage loss) * 6 hours= 799.2 kWh.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_irradiance#/media/File:SolarGIS-Solar-map-North-America-en.png (US is mostly > 1.1kW per M^2)
Tesla Powerpack (added 2% due to DC output to tractor)
http://news.energysage.com/what-are-the-most-efficient-solar-panels-on-the-market/ 20% is in the upper end

Better data including weather issues. Most of US is better than 4kWh/m^2 per day 4*740m^2 = 2,960kWh * 20% * 90% = 532kWh, so I'm off by 33% for east coast/ mid west (total error 0f 2/.67 = 3x for Walmart, where is other 3x?). Need 1,113 m^2 (12,000 ft^2) there. So an average warehouse supports > 3 trucks, an average Walmart almost 9, and a Walmart distribution center 83 trucks a day anywhere in the Continental US.


View attachment 261643
Very good response, and yes, for an ideal scenario, you were off by about 3. The other factor of 3 comes from the other factors that go into making a practical, usable installation, not just theory. First, the roof will not be covered, corner to corner with panels, all inclined to the latitude. Either you angle them and space them a bit to prevent them from shading eachother, or you sacrifice efficiency. In reality, you do the former. Second, you need access and room for all the other associated equipment. Next, you have to factor in that that average daily insolation is nowhere near steady throughout the year. You easily need 50% over capacity to charge batteries on less light days to reduce grid draws in cloudy days, but in truth, if you are actually trying to produce all the power on site, you need 2-3x the rated capacity. This will get you through most 3-5 day rainy periods. You will still need a grid tie for those exceptional times when it stays rainy for 2 weeks, etc, but those are rare, so nobody installs for that.

There is a reason net metering makes solar work. If you know anyone who is truly off-grid on solar+batteries (one of my best friends is), then you will find that annual averages, rated output, and other "typical" specifications don't cover real world, must have available juice 24/7 365 types of situations.

Regardless, even taking your ideal scenario, an average Walmart store could conceivably produce enough juice to recharge the bulk of the truck volume for that store. For the distribution center, not even close. A large distribution center could see that many trucks in a busy hour, much less a day.

FWIW, check out Walmart Corporate - Photos of Walmart Trucks and Logistics Team. They have some pics in there that look strangely similar to something groundbreaking from last week. I was shocked too.
 
Very good response, and yes, for an ideal scenario, you were off by about 3. The other factor of 3 comes from the other factors that go into making a practical, usable installation, not just theory. First, the roof will not be covered, corner to corner with panels, all inclined to the latitude. Either you angle them and space them a bit to prevent them from shading eachother, or you sacrifice efficiency. In reality, you do the former. Second, you need access and room for all the other associated equipment. Next, you have to factor in that that average daily insolation is nowhere near steady throughout the year. You easily need 50% over capacity to charge batteries on less light days to reduce grid draws in cloudy days, but in truth, if you are actually trying to produce all the power on site, you need 2-3x the rated capacity. This will get you through most 3-5 day rainy periods. You will still need a grid tie for those exceptional times when it stays rainy for 2 weeks, etc, but those are rare, so nobody installs for that.

There is a reason net metering makes solar work. If you know anyone who is truly off-grid on solar+batteries (one of my best friends is), then you will find that annual averages, rated output, and other "typical" specifications don't cover real world, must have available juice 24/7 365 types of situations.

Regardless, even taking your ideal scenario, an average Walmart store could conceivably produce enough juice to recharge the bulk of the truck volume for that store. For the distribution center, not even close. A large distribution center could see that many trucks in a busy hour, much less a day.

FWIW, check out Walmart Corporate - Photos of Walmart Trucks and Logistics Team. They have some pics in there that look strangely similar to something groundbreaking from last week. I was shocked too.

Yah, saw that page when writing first post which was to show that a warehouse/ Walmart can do more than the statement: "That's wayyyy too low, and he's not gonna be able to set up enough solar panels to power more than 1-2 trucks a day (considering each truck is likely 1MW each)." My main point was to show the area needed, and relative multiples of that number per building type. Didn't bother with roof top units, skylights, or other such things.

Agree with other points, with the addition that the building itself has an energy usage also, so overproduction in the summer would go into cutting the building consumption. Having a grid definitely helps with the economics.

If the Walmart store can recharge most of the trucks, then the distribution center only needs to handle the remainder and center to center ones. If more collection area is needed, canopies in the parking lots of the stores can double available space (based on Meijer store to lot ratio).
 
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Tesla says Semi will be able to charge 0 - 400 in 30 minutes. Today Model S can charge to 80% in 30 minutes.
It appears that Tesla is either close to Supercharger improvements that will shave 10 min. off the 80% full time, or expects to do so
before the Semi is delivered.

400 is 80% of a 500 mile pack. Where is the improvement over current times?
 
I'm under the impression from various prior postings that the Semi will utilize some number of independently chargeable packs/subpacks to reach whatever it's KWh capacity will be. Then each of those can be charged by the same number of Supercharger units. Each sub pack could charge to 80% of its capacity in 30 minutes. The charging equipment would be delivering a total of 6 - 10X KW compared to charging an S, X, 3. It's crazy to imagine they will be able to ram power into the cells 10 times as fast as they do today.

It tells us that supercharger II will be ~400kW and that the megacharger is 4x supercharger II on four independent circuits. Charging rate per cell does not appear to increase.
 
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I was off by 33% in my solar for east coast, and mathed wrong for Walmart, but I can only find an error of 3X worst case, where are you finding the other 3X worth of error?

My truck numbers were doubled for the two Walmart cases should have been 13 and 125.

740 m^2 * 1kW/m^2 (solar irradience) * 20% (solar panel efficiency) * 90% (battery storage loss) * 6 hours= 799.2 kWh.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_irradiance#/media/File:SolarGIS-Solar-map-North-America-en.png (US is mostly > 1.1kW per M^2)
Tesla Powerpack (added 2% due to DC output to tractor)
http://news.energysage.com/what-are-the-most-efficient-solar-panels-on-the-market/ 20% is in the upper end

Better data including weather issues. Most of US is better than 4kWh/m^2 per day 4*740m^2 = 2,960kWh * 20% * 90% = 532kWh, so I'm off by 33% for east coast/ mid west (total error 0f 2/.67 = 3x for Walmart, where is other 3x?). Need 1,113 m^2 (12,000 ft^2) there. So an average warehouse supports > 3 trucks, an average Walmart almost 9, and a Walmart distribution center 83 trucks a day anywhere in the Continental US.


View attachment 261643

I used to do this professionally.

From a desktop computer enter latitude and longitude here:

NASA Surface meteorology and Solar Energy - Location

Then when it asks which parameters you care about choose everything in the tilted panels box.

This returns the solar input result for fixed tilt panels at that location. Everything we built using this method worked.
 
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No, that's incorrect. Fast charging is based on the percentage of the entire battery, not the kWh amount. Just because you can charge a 1MW battery to 80% in 30 minutes doesn't mean you can charge 800 kWh in 30 minutes in a 100 kWh battery.

Using your logic, we should be able to charge a cell phone battery in 5 seconds.
Yep. At the power to charge the cell phone battery in 5 s, you could probable destroy it in 2 s. (not a real number, but you already have the basic idea,)
 
Anyone else little miffed that there was no mention of FSD for the semi or the roadster which come out after musks initial FSD prediction timeline. I’m feeling as if AP news has gone silent. When are Tesla’s going to be good for a taxi service, before or after uber takes delivery on its 24,000 Volvo’s.
 
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