2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[Waiting4M3]

One thing I hope to hear in the conf call is if the battery module is just an example, or if it's the only problem that they haven't solved. Best scenario is as soon as the battery module bottleneck is fixed, maybe by Nov/E, we can see 500/wk output, which gives at least 2K cars in Dec, and it could be a lot more by the end of Dec. If there are other bottlenecks that haven't been worked out, then we can be stuck at the low end of the "S" curve for much longer.

 

[mickificki]

Elon wasn't kidding when he said assume the worst. Ugh.

 

[Svetlin]

One thing I hope to hear in the conf call is if the battery module is just an example, or if it's the only problem that they haven't solved. Best scenario is as soon as the battery module bottleneck is fixed, maybe by Nov/E, we can see 500/wk output, which gives at least 2K cars in Dec, and it could be a lot more by the end of Dec. If there are other bottlenecks that haven't been worked out, then we can be stuck at the low end of the "S" curve for much longer.

If the battery pack is the only bottleneck, and it's designed to be as easily swappable as the Model S/X, wouldn't they build the rest of the car and just wait for the installation of the battery pack... they should be able to get cars at least as much finished as they have them when they ship to Tilburg without the battery attached.

Not saying it's a good idea, but interesting to think about if that's the only serious bottleneck.

 

[kengchang]

If the battery pack is the only bottleneck, and it's designed to be as easily swappable as the Model S/X, wouldn't they build the rest of the car and just wait for the installation of the battery pack... they should be able to get cars at least as much finished as they have them when they ship to Tilburg without the battery attached.

Not saying it's a good idea, but interesting to think about if that's the only serious bottleneck.

Model 3 battery is bolted from inside, not the same as S/X

 

[erthquake]

If the battery pack is the only bottleneck, and it's designed to be as easily swappable as the Model S/X, wouldn't they build the rest of the car and just wait for the installation of the battery pack... they should be able to get cars at least as much finished as they have them when they ship to Tilburg without the battery attached.

Not saying it's a good idea, but interesting to think about if that's the only serious bottleneck.

Not much room in Fremont to store cars without battery/drivetrain. European cars won't be built for a while, when the bottleneck should be out of the way.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Model 3 battery is bolted from inside, not the same as S/X

May not be under 5 minutes, but maybe 1 hour of work? After it's something that service centers should be able to do, and should be a piece of cake if done at the factory.

 

[CorneliusXX]

"...the Model 3 production process will be vastly more automated than the production process of Model S, Model X or almost any other car on the market today, and bringing this level of automation online is simply challenging in the early stages of the ramp."

or... it's a mistake. there is the possibility that they've made a huge engineering mistake.

Me thinks you may well be rather insufferable until at least January

 

[STARR X]

I think the login page for the conference call is different looking. Hopefully they have upgraded their conference call technology too.

 

[WarpedOne]

sounds OK

 

[The Blue Owl]

sounds OK

I can't hear a damn thing on the live stream. It's totally silent. Does anyone else have the same experience?

 

[RationalOptimist]

I can't hear a damn thing on the live stream. It's totally silent. Anyone else have the same experience?

Hearing it fine. Elon in punch-back mode...

 

[WarpedOne]

"punch-back mode"?
like boxing?

 

[hockeythug]

They have been down this road before and everything turned out fine.

 

[oneday]

Elon sounds like he needs a vacation.

 

[Drumheller]

Level 9 is worst.
We're in Level 8, need to climb up through the levels.


Answer to Dante's Inferno reference.

 

[imispgh]

Elon Musk asked the doubters to consider who thought Tesla would sell 100X more cars in the 5th year. He said he bets no one. That isn’t the point. The issue is Elon’s own promises and projections. When he doesn’t make them, many missed by a lot, he refuses to take ownership. Gets testy and plays shoot the messenger. Don’t get annoyed with people for holding you accountable for what you said. Try under promising, over delivering and keeping your ego in check. What are you going to do when you don’t reach L4 for AP in 2018 after you promised it in 2017?


On firing people. Again he shoots the messenger. Who does performance reviews for 700 people and lets them all go at once? Especially at the end of the year and when you are behind? Your supposed to do that as the year goes on. Now you are just jamming HR and the managers going in to the holiday. The issue is not the amount it’s how this is being done and when.

 

[Runarbt]

Level 9 is worst.
We're in Level 8, need to climb up through the levels.


Answer to Dante's Inferno reference.

nope. u dont know ur dante. the exit is through 9th. climb down devils genitalia and tail.

 

[Drumheller]

On firing people. Again he shoots the messenger. Who does performance reviews for 700 people and lets them all go at once? Especially at the end of the year and when you are behind? Your supposed to do that as the year goes on. Now you are just jamming HR and the managers going in to the holiday. The issue is not the amount it’s how this is being done and when.

Longer you leave a problem worker in place, the more damage you're doing to the team and productivity. I'm fully in agreement with Tesla / Musk on this. I've worked in middle management for years. Fire poor performers and move on. You'll have a stronger team for it.

 

[Drumheller]

nope. u dont know ur dante. the exit is through 9th. climb down devils genitalia and tail.

I'm writing what Musk just said on the call. He said, "Level 9 is the worst and we're working our way up. We're in Level 8 now. I had hoped we'd be in Level 7 by now"

Yes, I'm aware that does not match Dante's Inferno.

 

[imispgh]

Just in case Elon is watching

Open Letter to Elon Musk - Please consider changing your approach in creating autonomous vehicles

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/open-letter-elon-musk-michael-dekort/

(Admittedly the approach is a strong one. Given your personality and how far things have gotten I don’t anything less than an intervention would be successful.)