2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[Krugerrand]

My take is a little different. This sounds like they might be providing subassembly for either the Semi, the Y or the secret pickup truck. According the Neidermeyer (isn't this the same guy that was shot by his own troops in Viet Nam and tried to shoot Flounder), the Model 3 work that Thai Summit is doing won't be ready til end of 2018, based on his presumed timelines. Whatever filter this guy has going is causing him to misinterpret the facts, but it is pretty obvious that the Model 3 assembly line is installed, whatever remains is tweaks or bolt-ins to increase production.

I'm confused. You're selective choosing to believe that dude is right about Thai Summit doing some Model 3 2018 timeline stuff, but not that any subassembly Thai Summit might be doing now for Tesla has to do with the Model 3? Instead it's about Semi, Y or PU???

Best if we just go with what makes most logical sense: If Thai Summit is doing anything for Tesla right now, it'll be stamping some parts (NOT body panels), quite possibly subassemblies for 3, maybe some for S and/or X, nothing for Y or PU, maybe a prototype part or two for Semi.

 

[dc_h]

Tesla Model S Soon To Exceed Nissan LEAF Sales In The U.S., But Can It Hold On?

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It can't, it's going to be passed by the Model 3.

 

[Intl Professor]

I missed this earlier. Some is fairly obvious but worth reading for historical perspective and how structure of Congress changes for better or worse.

Why Republicans Can’t Govern

 

[dc_h]

I'm confused. You're selective choosing to believe that dude is right about Thai Summit doing some Model 3 2018 timeline stuff, but not that any subassembly Thai Summit might be doing now for Tesla has to do with the Model 3? Instead it's about Semi, Y or PU???

Best if we just go with what makes most logical sense: If Thai Summit is doing anything for Tesla right now, it'll be stamping some parts (NOT body panels), quite possibly subassemblies for 3, maybe some for S and/or X, nothing for Y or PU, maybe a prototype part or two for Semi.

My assumption is that EN's interpretation of what he heard is complete BS. Tesla is doing stamping in Fremont for the Model 3. If they are stamping parts, it is for something else, not the 3. If they are making new assembly line systems, they are additive to the existing line and not part of the initial line. Either way I highly doubt Thai Summit is still working on delivery of anything required for phase 1 of the Model 3 assembly line. If they are, I would expect a flight record of Elon's plane to be landing in Michigan this weekend.

 

[kenliles]

 

[esk8mw]

If Elon keeps solving the world's power problems the Powerwalls may never ship!

I'm beginning to understand why Elon said TE products would have a never slow ramp and production constraint for the foreseeable future. Demand for these solutions will just be off the charts once people/countries see how well it works at scale. Once they validate the money savings and risk mitigation possibilities demand will be unending.

 

[RABaby]

Crawling sloth time or flying sloth time? Matters.

It is neither
Sloth clock is from another dimension and serves as a cloaking device
Those referring to the sloth time are shrouded in a perception of interminable duration
but those who shield themselves from sloth clock see the actual speed of accomplishment

 

[kenliles]

Tesla expands in Fremont with new office buildings for more than 1,000 employees
"<
San Jose’s Mercury News reported that Tesla has leased 230,000 square feet of office space between two buildings at 6800 Dumbarton Circle and 6900 Dumbarton Circle in Fremont.
>"

 

[jhm]

Not to throw a wet blanket on this, but is the problem with restoring power grid in Puerto Rico the power generation or the power distribution lines? My guess is that the bulk of it is in the distribution. Unless Elon's solution is widely dispersed generation and storage, it will only have marginally better survivability when the next hurricane strikes.

I think the direction here is to develop more of microgrid approach to the island. In a crisis, the transmission grid and centralized power generation can fail, but microgrids can go into island mode and integrate local resources, be it rooftop solar, diesel gensets, CHP, batteries, whatever is at hand. In responding to a crisis, additional generators can be brought in and the power distributed locally. In rebuilding, each microgrid can be restored individually and in a prioritized fashion. So all along the spectrum from preparing for a storm, responding to immediate aftermath, and rebuilding, microgrids can provide localized options.

They say the grid could take 6 months to rebuild. So in the interim PR needs all the local options they can get. The edges of the grid that will take the longest to restore is where Tesla can deliver microgrid solutions in a fraction of the time.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I think the direction here is to develop more of microgrid approach to the island. In a crisis, the transmission grid and centralized power generation can fail, but microgrids can go into island mode and integrate local resources, be it rooftop solar, diesel gensets, CHP, batteries, whatever is at hand. In responding to a crisis, additional generators can be brought in and the power distributed locally. In rebuilding, each microgrid can be restored individually and in a prioritized fashion. So all along the spectrum from preparing for a storm, responding to immediate aftermath, and rebuilding, microgrids can provide localized options.

They say the grid could take 6 months to rebuild. So in the interim PR needs all the local options they can get. The edges of the grid that will take the longest to restore is where Tesla can deliver microgrid solutions in a fraction of the time.

How many MW power and/or how many MWh storage would this project need? Or GW/GWh scale maybe?

 

[zzziii]

 

[Krugerrand]

My assumption is that EN's interpretation of what he heard is complete BS. Tesla is doing stamping in Fremont for the Model 3. If they are stamping parts, it is for something else, not the 3. If they are making new assembly line systems, they are additive to the existing line and not part of the initial line. Either way I highly doubt Thai Summit is still working on delivery of anything required for phase 1 of the Model 3 assembly line. If they are, I would expect a flight record of Elon's plane to be landing in Michigan this weekend.

Since there’s nothing on Thai Summit’s webpage that suggests they do production line stuff as we’re thinking of it, they aren’t doing that for Tesla.

It occurred to me that any Model 3 2018 timeline stamping that Thai might be doing for Tesla could be related to AWD 3 or RHD 3, but it’s not production line related.

 

[Krugerrand]

It is neither
Sloth clock is from another dimension and serves as a cloaking device
Those referring to the sloth time are shrouded in a perception of interminable duration
but those who shield themselves from sloth clock see the actual speed of accomplishment

We’ll that clears it up. My next question is what kind of sloth time are the rest of the OEMs et al moving in?

 

[BriansTesla]

@Reciprocity I

As a former rocket and research scientist, I disagree.
We have been launching rockets since the 1950s, but haven’t self driven them back to earth until now.
The core technologies are closely entertwined and provide working solutions to both problems in equal measure. Resource application to deploy them is just coming to fruition.

And I would also disagree with "everything doesn't have to be perfect". Human nature dictates that people would be significantly more willing to risk injury/death if they're in control than if they're innocent passengers and a computer were to make an occasional fatal mistake. In other words, while a 50% reduction to the 35,000 U.S. driving fatalities would seem miraculous, absolutely NO ONE would tolerate 17,000 innocent deaths under computer control. How many self-driving cars driving off California cliffs do you think would be tolerated before everyone on that road avoided self-driving cars? 10,000? 5,000? Or just 1? How many deaths before everyone avoided self-driving cars all together?

Tesla's progress to date has been pretty sobering for me. And I think we should all, as ValueAnalyst appears to have done, discount any revenue from the Tesla Network until 2020 at the earliest, until Tesla proves otherwise. My .02.

Perfect is not attainable. Also, not to seem callous or anything but people seem to accept deaths from mechanical failures like ignition switches, fuel tanks, rollovers, etc.

 

[Waiting4M3]

On topic/off topic: November Car and Driver magazine has a large section devoted to Autonomous Driving. (about 25 pages in all)

A good read about the technology, regulatory issues and gives their assessment of where different manufacturers currently are (including Tesla)

Too bad I stopped my subscription to Car and Driver. Most of their reviews involving ICE cars are no longer of any interest to me.

 

[jhm]

If Elon keeps solving the world's power problems the Powerwalls may never ship!

I'm beginning to understand why Elon said TE products would have a never slow ramp and production constraint for the foreseeable future. Demand for these solutions will just be off the charts once people/countries see how well it works at scale. Once they validate the money savings and risk mitigation possibilities demand will be unending.

Part of the business model here needs to be rapid response capabilities for responding to crises. They will be production constrained. So they'll need to be able to prioritize projects on a humanitarian basis. But beyond that they could have special teams that are particularly adept to rapid response. Such a team could have been in PR just days after the storm. They would quickly survey the situation, coordinate with various agencies and companies, and draft plans for rapid response. They would also have work teams that can step in and immediately work with existing customers to solve their problems. For example, they have been sending Powerpacks, but local contractors are overloaded and are charging very high prices to install those. That would be typical in any big disaster, so the ability to bring in outside labor would really help. And one other thing, there are approaches to delivering temporary solar and microgrids that Tesla could master.

A proven track record of disaster response would serve Tesla very well. The more capable in responding to crisis they are, the more credible they will be in selling solutions that offer resiliency to such crises. Also the ability to restore electricity quickly is important to transitioning to EVs. You want car buyers to have confidence that in a disaster they will be better off with a BEV than a vehicle dependent on fuel.

 

[elasalle]

Too bad I stopped my subscription to Car and Driver. Most of their reviews involving ICE cars are no longer of any interest to me.

I am waiting for "Car and No Driver" ..

 

[RABaby]

We’ll that clears it up. My next question is what kind of sloth time are the rest of the OEMs et al moving in?

The reference for time is related to perception and size
The larger one is, the slower the time moves
TSLA is so small by comparison to the big ass companies (BAC) that it reacts before they even know what is happening
hence the appearance of stasis by BAC for those watching TSLA/Musk and looking back at those BAC
The time difference is a factor of Musk, so when he goes, so too will the sloth clock

 

[Krugerrand]

Part of the business model here needs to be rapid response capabilities for responding to crises. They will be production constrained. So they'll need to be able to prioritize projects on a humanitarian basis. But beyond that they could have special teams that are particularly adept to rapid response. Such a team could have been in PR just days after the storm. They would quickly survey the situation, coordinate with various agencies and companies, and draft plans for rapid response. They would also have work teams that can step in and immediately work with existing customers to solve their problems. For example, they have been sending Powerpacks, but local contractors are overloaded and are charging very high prices to install those. That would be typical in any big disaster, so the ability to bring in outside labor would really help. And one other thing, there are approaches to delivering temporary solar and microgrids that Tesla could master.

A proven track record of disaster response would serve Tesla very well. The more capable in responding to crisis they are, the more credible they will be in selling solutions that offer resiliency to such crises. Also the ability to restore electricity quickly is important to transitioning to EVs. You want car buyers to have confidence that in a disaster they will be better off with a BEV than a vehicle dependent on fuel.

If they go that route to master then buy the crisis even if there’s no dip.

 

[Reciprocity]

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You know the more I think about it, Tesla could do this in a way that would be very profitable for Tesla. It would require Tesla to basically become the new utility of PR. As long as people are going to live there, they will need power and Tesla can sell them electricity at 20c/KWh on average then they can make this happen and be very profitable. The first step is to send tons of batteries and panels and deploy them all over the island. Several large installs that are spaced out throughout the country. Run lines under ground to further distributed areas and put battery packs. Then work with citizens to buy solar for their homes that connect to the distributed power packs. Not all will so the larger microgrid setups, a dozen or so Kauai sized installs spaced around the island will be the main source for power and the power packs will be for local load balancing near the main transformers.

Telsa could make power at 5c or at worst 10c per KWh and sell it for a decent markup and people on the island would still save money and have a much more reliable grid. Because they would be a captive audience, the financing for the build out would be easy and would not be tied to the government of PR. Ofcourse the next step would be to convert all the cars to EVs so Tesla could offer special EV rates and install software to use the cars to help support the grid by taking power at peak solar times and stressing the power packs less.

Edit: Ok.. Kauai population is 65K, and PR is 3.4M so they would probably need something much much larger and way more of them. That being said, 3.4 million people paying 20c/KWh is ~$10M/Day at 15KWh per day per person.