Ah, the usual phenomenon: as soon as you measure something, you give people an incentive to game the measurement system.
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Yea, I agree that we obviously should not expect anything coming out of this in short or medium term, but this frames (contentious) conversation going forward. I think that it is significant for some organized entity (Green Party) to put forth final goal clearly and assertively. We have seen what this can do in due time. Tesla was ridiculed and dismissed for more than a decade, but now everybody and their business partner are tripping over each other screaming "me too!"
I'd also point out that the author seems to think that production lines can be created with a magic wand. If Tesla can sell 200K Model S/X per year... they'd still actually have to build the capacity for it, and that takes time, effort, and money.
What is it with this sort of assumption? Is it the dominance of software stuff, which really can be done with no money, no resources, and relatively little time? (I mean... I could probably build a better app than Uber with five of my pals in a month. Because theres's no hardware there. And Lyft actually did this as did other companies. But I couldn't build an automobile production line!) I've been seeing more and more stuff from analysts and article-writers which sound like they've never looked at anything which involves phsyical construction in their lives. Total ignorance of how capital equipment works.
Good general read on the future of auto/auto companies:
Car Makers Spinning in a Red Ocean
'The winners and the leaders in these red ocean markets will be those that combine technical acumen with the cleverest and most compelling go-to market strategy. ( my comment: sounds like Tesla). Complicating matters for legacy market players is the reality that market entry barriers are falling with the onset of these technologies even though the prospect of profits remains elusive.'
Car Makers Spinning in a Red Ocean
'The winners and the leaders in these red ocean markets will be those that combine technical acumen with the cleverest and most compelling go-to market strategy. ( my comment: sounds like Tesla). Complicating matters for legacy market players is the reality that market entry barriers are falling with the onset of these technologies even though the prospect of profits remains elusive.'
I think part of the solution for scaling service is fairly obvious: release the manuals and encourage independent shops (not franchised dealerships) to do service.
Ulmo
Active Member
My hope is that Tesla is forced to do this as it goes down market in its vehicles, and also runs into actual business needs with Tesla Semi with shops that already service their own. The first time Tesla is having a contract fight with a Semi fleet owner and Tesla looks at their service department absolutely not able to meet the demand, they'll see the writing on the wall, finally, and then as the poor people start trying to fix their cars (which are their only cars used daily as commuters and not Sunday church rides like for S & X), Tesla will once again have to fight it on an individual basis one on one at every service center, and they'll be forced to capitulate. I'm not at all sure why Tesla has been so blind to this problem, but I have a feeling independent service will be happening anyway. If Tesla continues to be blind to this, there's going to be quite a lot of brand damage while they wake the f up.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Gerardf
Active Member
In the past 24 hours 10 ( ! ) new SuperChargers opened in China.
Now at 166 stations there..
supercharge.info --> changes.
Now at 166 stations there..
supercharge.info --> changes.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Not a single analyst or article-writer is denying what you sais.
The disagreements are how much time, effort, and money building production lines take and what the bottlenecks preventing a quicker buildout are.
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The Senate changed some numbers (reducing) from the recently passed AD bill.
Senate panel moves self-driving car bill, allows 80,000 cars to be sold in 3 years
The provision allowing 80,000 vehicles to be exempted from current safety standards — which was proposed by U.S. Sen. Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn. — is a reduction from the 100,000 vehicles that would have been exempted under the original version of the bill and that already passed the U.S. House, setting up a potential conflict to be resolved.
The measure also reduced the number of exempted cars seen in the initial bill and in the House bill in the first year after enactment from 50,000 to 15,000 and in the second year from 75,000 to 40,000.
<break>
Thune, who ultimately will guide the vote on the bill on the Senate floor once it comes up, called the legislation “a good start,” though he believes an opportunity to encourage development of self-driving trucks was missed by their being left out of the bill.
That helped ensure Democratic votes for the proposal, however. Recently, the Teamsters union argued that regulations encouraging the development of self-driving trucks should be left out of the bill, in part because there are questions about what such vehicles would mean for millions of commercial truck drivers.
Thune was not the only one who disagreed with that stance.
“I do understand their anxieties … but we ought to be including large trucks,” said Sen. Todd Young, R-Ind. “Large trucks are particularly likely to be involved in these fatal crashes… I really think we’re missing the boat here.”
Senate panel moves self-driving car bill, allows 80,000 cars to be sold in 3 years
The provision allowing 80,000 vehicles to be exempted from current safety standards — which was proposed by U.S. Sen. Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn. — is a reduction from the 100,000 vehicles that would have been exempted under the original version of the bill and that already passed the U.S. House, setting up a potential conflict to be resolved.
The measure also reduced the number of exempted cars seen in the initial bill and in the House bill in the first year after enactment from 50,000 to 15,000 and in the second year from 75,000 to 40,000.
<break>
Thune, who ultimately will guide the vote on the bill on the Senate floor once it comes up, called the legislation “a good start,” though he believes an opportunity to encourage development of self-driving trucks was missed by their being left out of the bill.
That helped ensure Democratic votes for the proposal, however. Recently, the Teamsters union argued that regulations encouraging the development of self-driving trucks should be left out of the bill, in part because there are questions about what such vehicles would mean for millions of commercial truck drivers.
Thune was not the only one who disagreed with that stance.
“I do understand their anxieties … but we ought to be including large trucks,” said Sen. Todd Young, R-Ind. “Large trucks are particularly likely to be involved in these fatal crashes… I really think we’re missing the boat here.”
I've been assuming that two way EV charging doesn't make any sense -- that the value of peak shaving to the grid from an EV feeding the grid would be less than the cost of cycling an EV battery. But, I just noticed the study below, also highlighted by Joe Romm, which claims that, with the right algorithms, an EV can provide electricity to the grid in such a way as to extend battery life. Anyone have a good technical perspective on this? If true, this would be a big deal as EV adoption increases and from an investment standpoint long term.
On the possibility of extending the lifetime of lithium-ion batteries through optimal V2G facilitated by an integrated vehicle and smart-grid system - ScienceDirect!
On the possibility of extending the lifetime of lithium-ion batteries through optimal V2G facilitated by an integrated vehicle and smart-grid system - ScienceDirect!
Electric regional plane due in 2022:
Boeing-backed, electric-hybrid airliner set to hit market in 2022
Interesting that Tesla gets mentioned twice in the article:
"Electric-vehicle batteries, such as those made by Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) and Panasonic Corp (6752.T), would power the motor. "
"Zunum has no commitment to Tesla or Panasonic."
So the plane operating costs are 20% of a small jet, flies at 25,000 feet and 340 mph. Game changer for regional airports.
Clearly whomever can make very energy dense batteries could make a fortune supplying batteries to these planes. The market size relative to cars is pretty small though. Seems like the big losers in this scenario are regional jet makers who could lose market share when someone else builds a plane that costs 80% less to run. Not as fast as a jet, but 50% to 60% as fast.
RT
Boeing-backed, electric-hybrid airliner set to hit market in 2022
Interesting that Tesla gets mentioned twice in the article:
"Electric-vehicle batteries, such as those made by Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) and Panasonic Corp (6752.T), would power the motor. "
"Zunum has no commitment to Tesla or Panasonic."
So the plane operating costs are 20% of a small jet, flies at 25,000 feet and 340 mph. Game changer for regional airports.
Clearly whomever can make very energy dense batteries could make a fortune supplying batteries to these planes. The market size relative to cars is pretty small though. Seems like the big losers in this scenario are regional jet makers who could lose market share when someone else builds a plane that costs 80% less to run. Not as fast as a jet, but 50% to 60% as fast.
RT
Anyone know if Tesla used to lease their tooling plant in Michigan? From this article, Tesla's leasing that building now: click-bait title --> Tesla Motors' Michigan factory sold for $9.5M
Not sure who the seller was though.
Not sure who the seller was though.
I went to a Tesla recruiting event at a major University.
There were several engineers that work on various projects at TSLA.
One engineer who is connected to the production line of Model 3 has indicated that the ramp of Model 3 is currently happening very rapidly. Another person on the presentation team has indicated that they have more than 500K reservations for Model 3.
What is also interesting that externally we see that Tesla is not talking much about Model 3 currently. However inside of the company that is the highest priority. I judged it from the presentation, where various presenters during various times during the event explicitly mentioned Model 3 as the main focus of what they do. For example one presenter has indicated that Model 3 production line is optimized on a weekly basis.
Other interesting observations. The presenters said that interns at the company are given full time job level responsibilities. It was frequently mentioned that the assignments relate to cutting costs and optimizing processes at various levels at the company. The goal of Tesla is to hire all well performing interns. Well performing people can progress their careers very fast at Tesla. Multiple promotions a year are possible. The level of a person and resulting compensation is not determined by the title of a person but by the amount of responsibility this person has in the company. The most challenging part of being at Tesla was a constant adaptation to the rapid inventions that occur within the company. All recruiters and engineers were all young, very motivated, and extremely excited and happy about what they do. It was catching. Large room dedicated to the event was packed with students who were very engaged, wanted to ask a lot of questions, and work for Tesla.
From all of this I can judge that Tesla has very bright future.
There were several engineers that work on various projects at TSLA.
One engineer who is connected to the production line of Model 3 has indicated that the ramp of Model 3 is currently happening very rapidly. Another person on the presentation team has indicated that they have more than 500K reservations for Model 3.
What is also interesting that externally we see that Tesla is not talking much about Model 3 currently. However inside of the company that is the highest priority. I judged it from the presentation, where various presenters during various times during the event explicitly mentioned Model 3 as the main focus of what they do. For example one presenter has indicated that Model 3 production line is optimized on a weekly basis.
Other interesting observations. The presenters said that interns at the company are given full time job level responsibilities. It was frequently mentioned that the assignments relate to cutting costs and optimizing processes at various levels at the company. The goal of Tesla is to hire all well performing interns. Well performing people can progress their careers very fast at Tesla. Multiple promotions a year are possible. The level of a person and resulting compensation is not determined by the title of a person but by the amount of responsibility this person has in the company. The most challenging part of being at Tesla was a constant adaptation to the rapid inventions that occur within the company. All recruiters and engineers were all young, very motivated, and extremely excited and happy about what they do. It was catching. Large room dedicated to the event was packed with students who were very engaged, wanted to ask a lot of questions, and work for Tesla.
From all of this I can judge that Tesla has very bright future.
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dennis
Model S Plaid
There is a young man I know quite well who has completed two summer internships at Tesla and is currently getting his Masters degree. His experience totally matches what you heard. All 17 of his fellow interns wanted full time jobs with Tesla. I met some of the interns and some of his other coworkers and their enthusiasm for Tesla and the mission was apparent.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Tesla buyers to have access to federal tax credit well into 2018 as US deliveries reach over 140,000 units
@FredLambert - The following paragraph may need a correction: [edit: never mind]
Instead, we expect 15,000 to 25,000 available federal tax credits to slip into Q1 2018. It means that they could hit the threshold during the first quarter or Tesla could (and should) time its 200,000th delivery right after the end of the first quarter since the way the phase-out period is set up, buyers still have access to the full credit for the current quarter and another full quarter – meaning they would still have access to the $7,500 credit in Q2 2018 and Q3 2018.
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If Tesla delivers 200,000th vehicle in January 1, then I believe the $7,500 tax credit ends by the end of 2Q18, and 3Q18 would be half.
Could the more knowledgeable TMC members please chime in?
@FredLambert - The following paragraph may need a correction: [edit: never mind]
Instead, we expect 15,000 to 25,000 available federal tax credits to slip into Q1 2018. It means that they could hit the threshold during the first quarter or Tesla could (and should) time its 200,000th delivery right after the end of the first quarter since the way the phase-out period is set up, buyers still have access to the full credit for the current quarter and another full quarter – meaning they would still have access to the $7,500 credit in Q2 2018 and Q3 2018.
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If Tesla delivers 200,000th vehicle in January 1, then I believe the $7,500 tax credit ends by the end of 2Q18, and 3Q18 would be half.
Could the more knowledgeable TMC members please chime in?
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That is correct, but you notice that what that said "It means that they could hit the threshold during the first quarter or Tesla could (and should) time its 200,000th delivery right after the end of the first quarter " In other words they are thinking Tesla will make the 200,000th US delivery at the start of Q2 meaning the full credit goes through Q3.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
You're right. I misread it, likely because in my head I was thinking the 200,000th U.S. delivery would be reached closer to the first half of 1Q18.
The fact that Tesla just delivered its 140,000th U.S. delivery is below my estimate.
I currently have ~120k Model S/3/X global deliveries modeled for 4Q17/1Q18, and ~$60k for the U.S. makes sense.
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