Hmmm.. Just hours after I posted it here. Who is your source, Fred?
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Hmmm.. Just hours after I posted it here. Who is your source, Fred?
erthquake
Active Member
Well our cars are on the heavier side given their size. We should pay for our share of wear on the roads and bridges. And it takes away another counter-argument from the anti-EV people.
As you know we seldom disagree. They have raised the gas tax, finally, and even more if I remember correctly for diesel trucks, where we now know (until the new EPA buries the evidence) particulates are a real danger too.
Recall that they started doing this because of rampant speculation on volume numbers that was becoming a big distraction. They started sharing delivery numbers as a goodwill effort to tamp down the speculation and tea leaf reading. Until there is similar chaos on TE deliveries they have little reason to.
What? No announcement next week? What is the source for that?
I am not sure what you are missing. They debt ceiling may indeed be being approached, but this "accounting gimmick" thing is a normal annual tradition now. And the Republicans can just pass the bill to increase the debt celing at their convenience. This is only a risk if you think the Repub party is in such disarray that the freedom caucus decides to vote against it just to be Nihilist and Dems decide to join them for some reason. It just doesn't seem to be a problem.
I was of this view too until today and then I heard the latest episode of pod save America here Pod Save America
These are former Obama advisors who have deep insight into the ongoings in DC.
Basically the short of it is that the well has been poisoned by Trump and the freedom caucus guys *are* nihilists. Dems have no interest in going along with Trump.
Be forewarned that this is a highly partisan podcast.
Yep, my math was embarrassingly off - note to self: never post until fully awake.
Sweet!Was on Twitter checking whether Elon 'leaked' numbers already, and found this instead. Production preparation really seems to be going well for now.
View attachment 220886
So he did mean 6-9 months from now and not start of RWD M3 production/deliveries.
erthquake
Active Member
Was on Twitter checking whether Elon 'leaked' numbers already, and found this instead
View attachment 220886
Wow! I camped out, and I've been figuring/planning I wouldn't get my 3 until around February. I was planning on base model with bigger(est) battery. Man, this sounds like I could take delivery early/mid 4th quarter.
Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
Really? I read those same words and I'm thinking February for you. I guess I'm glass half empty kind of guy. Which is useful skill when listening to Elon's promises. At least historically, and I hope I'm wrong
erthquake
Active Member
I agree, it should be taken with a grain of salt. I'm on the west coast, though, so I would be on the early side anyway.
As they get closer to production, Tesla gets a clearer picture of how well production will go. As more internal milestones are met, there's less that can go wrong, and the grain of salt that needs to be taken with Musk's forecasts gets smaller and smaller.
I feel that when Musk reads a tweet like that, he already knows how many reservations were made in the first 30 minutes after the stores opened. He also knows how many cars they want to produce before they add the AWD version. Given a production ramp that he's confident can be achieved, the only unknown is the initial demand for non-AWD cars.
Of all the tweets directed at him tonight, he chose to answer that one. He could have let it go. That he answered it suggests to me he's brimming with confidence.
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I'm fine with miles-driven (odometer) fees or weight-based fees, applied to everyone. Actually I'm in favor of those. It's these special fines applied only to EVs which are unacceptable.
So the way to avoid the debt ceiling problem is for Trump to ignore Congress (something he seems to like doing anyway) and to issue the trillion dollar platinum coin. :eyeroll:
This isn't complicated. The debt ceiling was a stupid gimmick in the first place, introduced under Woodrow Wilson, and hasn't made any sense whatsoever since we went off the gold standard in the 1930s. Using one stupid law to avoid another stupid law is very reasonable.
Sadly, our current President is not what most would consider reasonable.
erthquake
Active Member
I agree that's the way it should be--some formula based on mileage and weight. That's too drastic for the general population right now, though. For now, this is a pretty reasonable way to start. My only concern is that less progressive states will take this as a signal to impose ridiculous EV fees in Koch-esque attempts to de-incentivize EVs.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
If you hold out for the awgpd big and big pack configuration there's a pretty good chance that you can pay for the difference using the money from shares or options, because you can be pretty sure that the SP will be much higher six months into the launch
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Another data point - for what it's worth.
The DragTimes Youtube channel just released a new video yesterday (they emphasized this was not an April's Fool joke) where they showed their brand new X 100D. They replaced their Founders' XP90D with a 100D (non-P) as the wife wanted more range.
Anyway. They did not share exact delivery date but it feels like it was very recent, so at the very end of Q1 and for a second their VIN is visible: it was #40744.
I went through the Tesla quarterlies and also the quick delivery updates from Q4 2015 to Q4 2016 to get Model X (global) lifetime production and deliveries to try and place this number. My estimate* is 28,660 X produced and 25,518 delivered until December 31, 2016. So this puts their X at 15,226 VINs above deliveries and 12,084 VINs above production.
DISCLAIMER: VIN counting is a dangerous game as VINs are known to skip/reserve certain ranges of numbers. Still, this seems to support our current expectation of a strong Q1.
PS: *rant in a separate post.
The DragTimes Youtube channel just released a new video yesterday (they emphasized this was not an April's Fool joke) where they showed their brand new X 100D. They replaced their Founders' XP90D with a 100D (non-P) as the wife wanted more range.
Anyway. They did not share exact delivery date but it feels like it was very recent, so at the very end of Q1 and for a second their VIN is visible: it was #40744.
I went through the Tesla quarterlies and also the quick delivery updates from Q4 2015 to Q4 2016 to get Model X (global) lifetime production and deliveries to try and place this number. My estimate* is 28,660 X produced and 25,518 delivered until December 31, 2016. So this puts their X at 15,226 VINs above deliveries and 12,084 VINs above production.
DISCLAIMER: VIN counting is a dangerous game as VINs are known to skip/reserve certain ranges of numbers. Still, this seems to support our current expectation of a strong Q1.
PS: *rant in a separate post.
So about that "*" in my post above.
I had to estimate X production and deliveries as Tesla is extremely coy about these numbers. Having spent the last 40-50 minutes doing this, I must admit I am disappointed by the lack of transparency on this matter. I think it is reasonable shareholder expectation, that the company publishes production and delivery numbers per product quarterly or at least annually. As of right now, they sometimes publish specific X and S delivery and production numbers in either their quick quarterly update or the ERs, sometimes it's just one or the other or cumulative or neither.
It certainly feels like they do this depending whether they want to explain bad results or not. So whenever they missed delivery expectations, or X was rumored to have production issues, they published specific production numbers for S and X separately to explain how "yes we had issues but everything is on track by now". Other times they only announce combined production numbers and separate delivery numbers so I had to assume the S and X production ratio was the same as the delivery ratio to be able have some sort of number. I think that is not a 100% accurate presumption, especially when X had production issues and was ramping late in the quarter, but that's as good as it gets.
In some ERs they shared the exact delivery and / or production numbers, so you could even see how it changed compared to the early quarter quick report, in others, like the latest ER, this info went MIA and there was nothing shared except for revenue & profit.
Would it be really so hard to add in a table that shows Product name, Production #, Deliveries # in 3 columns for all products, line by line? Is that unreasonable to ask for?
I had to estimate X production and deliveries as Tesla is extremely coy about these numbers. Having spent the last 40-50 minutes doing this, I must admit I am disappointed by the lack of transparency on this matter. I think it is reasonable shareholder expectation, that the company publishes production and delivery numbers per product quarterly or at least annually. As of right now, they sometimes publish specific X and S delivery and production numbers in either their quick quarterly update or the ERs, sometimes it's just one or the other or cumulative or neither.
It certainly feels like they do this depending whether they want to explain bad results or not. So whenever they missed delivery expectations, or X was rumored to have production issues, they published specific production numbers for S and X separately to explain how "yes we had issues but everything is on track by now". Other times they only announce combined production numbers and separate delivery numbers so I had to assume the S and X production ratio was the same as the delivery ratio to be able have some sort of number. I think that is not a 100% accurate presumption, especially when X had production issues and was ramping late in the quarter, but that's as good as it gets.
In some ERs they shared the exact delivery and / or production numbers, so you could even see how it changed compared to the early quarter quick report, in others, like the latest ER, this info went MIA and there was nothing shared except for revenue & profit.
Would it be really so hard to add in a table that shows Product name, Production #, Deliveries # in 3 columns for all products, line by line? Is that unreasonable to ask for?
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