larmor
Active Member
Another industry or sector to short: steering wheel manufacturers...
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Another industry or sector to short: steering wheel manufacturers...
On a serious note, I think that there's a potential for a serious skew in real estate prices. For example, if you can just pile up into an auto-driving car on Friday after work and end up some place really beautiful after a few hours of nap time, that'll put less premium on proximity to big urban areas and more on the quality of the location.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
I think we will see $100 PPS before we see $1000, after a 1 to 7 split, that is
I'm not exactly sure what you mean by that. If you mean residential, I think you're probably wrong, but there are a number of different ways you could mean this.
A lot of people put a huge premium on actually being in the thick of things, IN an urban neighborhood, within a block or two of any number of exciting restaurants, nightlife, parks, museums, libraries, cultural events, etc., and right next door to their friends. This isn't going to change. Downtown urban real estate will continue to shoot up in price, a trend which has actually been going on for centuries with only a brief interruption in the second half of the 20th (interestingly, the sprawl was partly a deliberate piece of Big Government social engineering to try to spread the population out in case of nuclear attack on the cities).
Now, if you're talking about "suburbs 30 minutes away" vs. "suburbs 2 hours away" you may be correct. But I still think you might not. There's still a premium placed on "getting home from work in time for dinner".
On the other hand, if you're talking about "beautiful small town 1 hour away" vs. "cookie-cutter suburb 30 minutes away", we're already seeing prices go up in the former, so that could accelerate.
Now, if you mean commercial or industrial... probably still wrong. The clustering effect in both manufacturing and retail is well-documented and dates back thousands of years. There's apparently value to being next door to your competitors. Probably partly so that customers frustrated with your competitor can walk across the street and buy from you. Perhaps offices are the most interesting question. Again the clustering effect seems to apply, however.
Now, on the other hand, if you mean *recreational*, I think maybe you're on to something. Self-driving cars might cause lots more people to visit places they might not have visited because they were annoyingly remote. If they ever get good enough to work on the crummy roads to those places, that is.
I guess the indirect benefit that automated trains are massively cheaper to operate and therefore operate with far, far higher frequencies and are therefore far, far more useful than manually driven trains is just too complicated for most people's brains.
:sigh: Well, they do say nobody ever lost money underestimating the intelligence of the American people.
I was thinking about Tesla network and FSD and realized that TN can become operational much earlier than FSD. here is my thinking:
First off, FSD doesn't need to work for all corner cases like single lane bridges to enable TN. Typical usage could be, open the tesla app, punch in the destination and the app can tell you if the route is FSD enabled. If not, the car can use your profile and check if you have a valid license on file and let you drive the tesla to your destination.
If it is not an FSD Route, You can let the car park at your destination and next day or at a suitable time, a Tesla valet can come by, put the car in a follow mode and get it back to a FSD enabled region so that it can get back to the pool. A single bakery can there by retrieve multiple cars.
The are other complexities potentially, but the solutions appear to be reasonably simple to those cases with a few fleet managers.
Of course, if you want tesla to ferry your kid or if you want to hail it from a non FSD location, it will not be possible rightaway.
Tldr: I think the tesla network will show up much before FSD covers the map in full.
First off, FSD doesn't need to work for all corner cases like single lane bridges to enable TN. Typical usage could be, open the tesla app, punch in the destination and the app can tell you if the route is FSD enabled. If not, the car can use your profile and check if you have a valid license on file and let you drive the tesla to your destination.
If it is not an FSD Route, You can let the car park at your destination and next day or at a suitable time, a Tesla valet can come by, put the car in a follow mode and get it back to a FSD enabled region so that it can get back to the pool. A single bakery can there by retrieve multiple cars.
The are other complexities potentially, but the solutions appear to be reasonably simple to those cases with a few fleet managers.
Of course, if you want tesla to ferry your kid or if you want to hail it from a non FSD location, it will not be possible rightaway.
Tldr: I think the tesla network will show up much before FSD covers the map in full.
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Mike Smith
Active Member
100D (non-performance) could be announced at any time. New record range should generate significant positive news flow and $3 price gain.
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OK, so let's say 3 weeks per cell. They're targeting 150 GWh/year at full buildout, which would be 8.63 Gwh every three weeks. Each Powerwall 2 - sized collection of cells is about 13.5 kWh, so (subtracting the space for the outer case, inverter) you'd need to be storing approximately 640,000 Powerwall 2 units at any given time.
Think about that. Powerwall 2 is 1150 mm x 755 mm x 155 mm and about 2/3 of it appears to be the actual battery pack (from Tesla's picture). Multiplying, you need about 57354 m^3 of space. (Though in reality you need more because you can't pack them that tight. Probably have to double or triple it just to leave room to get them in and out of the racks.) The Gigafactory is only 21.6 meters tall, so that's at least 2655 m^2 of floorspace just for aging, or more realistically triple it to get 7965 m^2 -- though I suspect they're actually only doing the aging on one floor, so it probably takes up at least twice as much floorspace than that.
So it's not a large proportion of the whole building, but it is the size of a decent sized warehouse -- if they pack them pretty tight. When you have to have an entire warehouse just for an intermediate step in the process, you're going to start thinking about building a really big building....
The obvious example is recreational. I'm an urban rat myself and won't give up my ability to walk/bus/bike to places. In Washington there's a ridiculous amount of natural beauty that is just a bit too far for city people to get to for a weekend on regular basis. That will likely open up quite a bit with autonomous driving.
Further out, I won't rule out some kind of arrangement where people who want it both ways would spend some of their sleeping hours getting to and from work, so maybe even the popularity of having a fairly remote primary residence goes up.
I haven't thought much about it but I'm fairly certain that general availability of autonomous transportation will shift things around in other areas.
I haven't thought about this very much but perhaps we could get some insight into what to worry about by trying a super insulated from the outside run of an appropriately designed machine set to analyze all of political philosophy. I have a PhD level of certification for Western philosophy and only superficial connection to other sources which may be similar. (Confucian thought has parallels with Socrates--the early Plato version--for example.) In general almost all versions have positive implications for an ethical base worth knowing and living. Negative issues are frequently handled in context--Thrasymachus' argument "justice is the interest of the stronger" is easily knocked down by Socrates, for example. Machiavelli might be used for villainous purposes, and has in history, but Machiavelli's mature view compared to The Prince is reverence for the Florentine Republic (according to an article correcting the introduction to The Prince saying it was Niccolo's last word, in effect--Hans Baron??). And on totalitarianism Hannah Arendt has done a great job and worth reading today as so many of our institutions from the judiciary and media to our intelligence services are being disparaged by Agent Orange. Segments of the Trump vote are clearly typical of authoritarian personalities. Bullies like to follow a leader.
Given a bit of what is happening these days, and their consequences, should be instructive as well to this super intellectual machine. I was thinking about how dangerous it is for a president to disparage the intelligence services when they do so much leaking to the press, just as David Brooks of the New York Times said the same more clearly on the PBS Newshour this evening. Just imagine what could happen if AO were about to do something really destructive to our foreign policy how someone at NSA might leak a recording of Putin talking with a well known political candidate before the election. (Far fetched? Maybe. But Gary Sick believes a deal was made by Reagan's vice-president to be with Iranians at a meeting in Madrid to provide weapons if they held onto the hostages until after Reagan was elected. And then there's the story about Ms. Chennault and Nixon, but I digress or regress.)
For balance: there's the artful statement by Roosevelt, "your boys are not going to be sent into any foreign wars," or the whole story about the Tonkin Gulf incident.
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Agree the oven is probably already in place. There's no point in expanding the footprint of the Gigafactory before they've fully utilized the space of phase one.
But it's probably not unreasonable to assume that production will start with oven one only, at a lower rate, and then oven two will be started up maybe 1-3 months later. Using this model, it should be possible to estimate production for Q1.
If we assume two lines, and for the first couple of months there will only be one line running at 50%, that means phase one would be running at 25%. But with cell aging, we can probably assume production in march won't be completed before Q2. Earlier I estimated around 53 million cells per month for phase one, so Q1 production could be around 53M x 0.25 x 2 = 26.5 million cells.
Assuming a 75/25 split between powerpacks and powerwalls, that works out to 1242 Powerpacks (278 MWh) and 6625 Powerwalls (93 MWh), 371 MWh total. At an average selling price of around 400 USD/kWh, Tesla Energy may be contributing ~148 million dollars to Q1 revenue. Plus whatever Tesla is getting from Japan. (We can probably add something like half the Tesla Energy revenue from Q4 2016 on top of the 148 million. Tesla probably won't be delivering significant 18650-based Tesla Energy products in Q1. I'm assuming a 50/50 split in Q4.)
Edit: Q2 should be ramped up significantly more. Assuming phase one is running at 50% fram march through may, that's 80 million cells. Assuming a 75/25 split between powerpacks and powerwalls, that works out to 3750 Powerpacks (840 MWh) and 20,000 Powerwalls (280 MWh), 1120 MWh total. At an average selling price of around 400 USD/kWh, Tesla Energy may be contributing ~448 million dollars to Q2 revenue.
Edit 2: Q3 should see significant Model 3 cell production. Assuming phase one is running at 100% capacity and the rest of the capacity for phase one goes to the Model 3, that's an additional 80 million cells in Q3, sufficient for around 20k Model 3. So Tesla Energy would still be at 448 million in revenue, while the rest of phase one would go towards 20k Model 3.
In Q4 I hope phase two is up and running, at least partially, or cell availability should be an issue. I think this would have to be my base case though, with a somewhat slow ramp. It could go faster.
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They do and I suspect these warehouse portions are some/most of the tall single floor sections of the factory.
Remember from the July videos where they put the trays of cells in the aging room into tall racks using robots?
(The trays are similar to commercial dishwasher racks for juice glasses only for smaller cylinders.)
In the G-machine, the aging room is in effect a FIFO between the cell manufacturing and the module/pack manufacturing.
I don't think it is fair to equate intelligence with temperament. Thinking abstractly doesn't come naturally to the majority like it does for an 'INTP' like myself.
(BTW, Sometimes I think this most recent election was a referendum on the temperaments of the candidates, by the electorate, just like in 2000 when I found a book on temperaments titled "Please Understand Me II" to distract me from my grieving process.)
As was noted above, when the majority of the population have FSD cars (or otherwise personally directly benefit) from autonomous cars, then the political will changes quickly.
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Sorry if this has been posted before, I didn't see it in the last 3 pages:
When Will The Motor Industry Self-Destruct?
When Will The Motor Industry Self-Destruct?
Love the price target! I am looking at a time frame, roughly 10 years+, instead of a specific SP. If the SP approaches those levels, I think most on this board would be very pleased (to say the least).
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