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2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

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Anyone know what happened to the author of Tesla Weekly? The last newsletter was 17Nov17 as best I can tell:-(

Did he go to Hawaii and forget to take us along?:) I am sure a laptop would have worked:)
I think you mean @DaveT and he's still around, about to take delivery of his new Model 3. See his thread Articles/megaposts by DaveT

Maybe he's earned his free Roadster by now and doesn't need to write the newsletter any more.
 
Any comments / insight on this cash flow analysis?

Tesla Cash Flow - My thoughts and analysis • r/RealTesla
Outsiders can spin Tesla's cash flow all they want, the only thing that matters to me is that Tesla has no competition. To me this means that no one is forcing Tesla's hand in how fast they expand. They're in complete control in how they spend their cash. I trust Elon/JB/Deepak to know to balance risk vs reward in their expansion rate, and how to spend to grow as fast as they can without risking the long term health of the company. Everyone else are just trying to sound smart talking out of their ass on the internet.
 
Any comments / insight on this cash flow analysis?

Tesla Cash Flow - My thoughts and analysis • r/RealTesla

If you can read the entire boring thing, the original poster comes around at the end and basically gets it. What seems to confuse bears and accountants apparently, is that cap ex is an investment that pays dividends. It's only cash burn if you have no demand for the products you're are ramping up cap ex to make. The OP babbles on about how model 3 will generate massive cash but cap ex will continue to grow because of China factory, model y and semi/roadster lines. What is missing from this thought is that each subsequent factory or model will be accelerate which means cash from those new lines will come in months quicker because they will largely be duplicates of existing successful production lines. Each line will have only incremental improvements or tweaks for model Y. Roadster and semi are not going to be huge cap ex because they will be much lower volume so they won't be hyper robotic like model 3/Y and future platforms.

The other missing piece is that the highly automated nature of the model 3 leads to lower op ex, which improves operating margins. It also leads to short production times which allows Tesla to pay for parts after the cars are delivered and payments received which will have a dramatic effect on cash flow.

A successful model 3 ramp is a game changer because the ramp to 2 million cars per year or more that follows will be based on duplication and tweaks not inventing a new way to produce vehicles. Same goes for batteries and packs. All the cars should be based on the same sub models, including semi and roadster. The minute Tesla his 10k/week, they should be ordering new equipment for the next several plants. A gigafactory is just a gigantic building with the right equipment placed in the right location. Raw materials in one side and cars and powerpacks and solar products out the other end.
 
If you can read the entire boring thing, the original poster comes around at the end and basically gets it. What seems to confuse bears and accountants apparently, is that cap ex is an investment that pays dividends. It's only cash burn if you have no demand for the products you're are ramping up cap ex to make. The OP babbles on about how model 3 will generate massive cash but cap ex will continue to grow because of China factory, model y and semi/roadster lines. What is missing from this thought is that each subsequent factory or model will be accelerate which means cash from those new lines will come in months quicker because they will largely be duplicates of existing successful production lines. Each line will have only incremental improvements or tweaks for model Y. Roadster and semi are not going to be huge cap ex because they will be much lower volume so they won't be hyper robotic like model 3/Y and future platforms.

The other missing piece is that the highly automated nature of the model 3 leads to lower op ex, which improves operating margins. It also leads to short production times which allows Tesla to pay for parts after the cars are delivered and payments received which will have a dramatic effect on cash flow.

A successful model 3 ramp is a game changer because the ramp to 2 million cars per year or more that follows will be based on duplication and tweaks not inventing a new way to produce vehicles. Same goes for batteries and packs. All the cars should be based on the same sub models, including semi and roadster. The minute Tesla his 10k/week, they should be ordering new equipment for the next several plants. A gigafactory is just a gigantic building with the right equipment placed in the right location. Raw materials in one side and cars and powerpacks and solar products out the other end.

Thanks for synopsis. I’m always leery of random links.
 
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The latest update from Gene Munster/Loup Ventures is out.

They predict 2500 deliveries in Q4 and remain cautious on the Model 3 ramp (including 5000 by end of Q1) while noting positive signs. Continue to be bullish in the long run. Expecting Another Model 3 Miss, but Remain Upbeat on Tesla Story | Loup Ventures

One highlight:

“Tesla’s behind in Model 3 production, but ahead of the competition in building the car of the future. The reason we remain upbeat on the Tesla story despite the prolonged Model 3 production problems is because EV and autonomy are the future. Tesla is fighting to gain production scale to create that future. While other car manufacturers build gas-powered vehicles at scale, building autonomous EVs is a vastly different process that will require traditional auto manufactures to reengineer their production facilities. That means every automaker that wants to compete in the future needs to go through the production pain Tesla’s experiencing today.”
 
The latest update from Gene Munster/Loup Ventures is out.

They predict 2500 deliveries in Q4 and remain cautious on the Model 3 ramp (including 5000 by end of Q1) while noting positive signs. Continue to be bullish in the long run. Expecting Another Model 3 Miss, but Remain Upbeat on Tesla Story | Loup Ventures

One highlight:

“Tesla’s behind in Model 3 production, but ahead of the competition in building the car of the future. The reason we remain upbeat on the Tesla story despite the prolonged Model 3 production problems is because EV and autonomy are the future. Tesla is fighting to gain production scale to create that future. While other car manufacturers build gas-powered vehicles at scale, building autonomous EVs is a vastly different process that will require traditional auto manufactures to reengineer their production facilities. That means every automaker that wants to compete in the future needs to go through the production pain Tesla’s experiencing today.”

I agree with his assessment as it is 'confirmation bias' on my own projections (WAGs);)
 
I agree with his assessment as it is 'confirmation bias' on my own projections (WAGs);)

I am also cautious on hitting 5K/wk by end of Q1 and I thought his prediction of 2500 deliveries in Q4 seemed a bit on the high side.

I guess that makes me a “conservative bull,” at least on the Model 3 ramp.;)

While the ramp gets most of the attention right now, I agree with Munster’s assessment that what’s on the horizon is more important than the short-term:

“Model 3 breakout in 2019. While reservation holders grow anxious and investors frustration continues to mount, we continue to stress that production over the next several quarters will be largely a guessing game, and that short-term production numbers do not materially affect the long-term story. We predict a breakout year for the Model 3 in 2019 which means, until then, other elements like solid Model S and X production numbers, increasing energy deployments like the South Australiainstallation, and future vehicles (Roadster, Semi, Model Y, and pickup truck) will stoke investor optimism.”
 
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2500 Model 3 in Q4 may make a clean 100,000 total deliveries on the year a bit harder to reach. That is a milestone to try to hit.

First three quarters deliveries totaled 73,214 (25,051 22,026 25,951+222(3s)) so they need 26,786 to hit 100k for 2017. If they had 2,500 3s, that leaves 24,286 which is less than Q1 and Q3 deliveries. 100k is potentially achievable with 2k 3s in Q4.

They did say they were planning to cut S/X production by 10%, but with the guidance of 100k vehicles, that may mean a reduction in inventory.
 
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