2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[SteveG3]

It honestly kills me inside knowing analysts are expecting 5,000 Model 3 delivered by the time the ball drops on New Years Eve...

ITS NOT GOING TO BE EVEN CLOSE TO THAT!!!

Very likely all the analysts know it will be about 1500-2800 total for the year. TMC can be out in front of some things, but for several days now it’s been pretty clear Tesla is very highly ptobable in that range... 5K is under a 1% probability, and that’s not an “inside TMC” insight.

Tesla can announce nearly anything and I’ll give you 5 to 1 odds the WSJ and others will frame it as a negative. Move up Model 3 production by 2 years? There was avalanche of bad press for that and virtually no one in the media saying “wait, bad thing? isn’t that a very good thing?”. Just last month with the semi and Roadster... vehicles that were off the charts vs expectations and we got a raft of “Tesla’s spreading itself too thin”, “This is all a distraction to divert people from Tesla’s Model 3 mess” stories.

 

[Time]

Very likely all the analysts know it will be about 1500-2800 total for the year. TMC can be out in front of some things, but for several days now it’s been pretty clear Tesla is very highly ptobable in that range... 5K is under a 1% probability, and that’s not an “inside TMC” insight.

Tesla can announce nearly anything and I’ll give you 5 to 1 odds the WSJ and others will frame it as a negative. Move up Model 3 production by 2 years? There was avalanche of bad press for that and virtually no one in the media saying “wait, bad thing? isn’t that a very good thing?”. Just last month with the semi and Roadster... vehicles that were off the charts vs expectations and we got a raft of “Tesla’s spreading itself too thin”, “This is all a distraction to divert people from Tesla’s Model 3 mess” stories.

You are right.

That's what we are up against. It really doesn't matter what Tesla does. I can think of any scenario and imagine how it could be turned negative.

Here are some examples:

"Tesla receives 25,000 reservations for Roadster, analyst expect cut in S and X production as a result"

"Tesla expands assembly capability in Europe to make room for new lines in California, analysts believe this is a cover up for additional cash burn"

"Model 3 ramp rate increased faster than expected, analysts expect Model S sales to be hurt as a result"

"Model S and X production costs drop dramatically, is Tesla focusing more on those production lines than the failing Model 3 line to distract investors?"

"Tesla Energy revenue grows faster than expected, analysts question focus on Tesla vehicles".

EVERYTHING IS BAD. NOTHING MATTERS ANYMORE!!! They will spin EVERYTHING against us!

 

[SteveG3]

You are right.

That's what we are up against. It really doesn't matter what Tesla does. I can think of any scenario and imagine how it could be turned negative.

Here are some examples:

"Tesla receives 25,000 reservations for Roadster, analyst expect cut in S and X production as a result"

"Tesla expands assembly capability in Europe to make room for new lines in California, analysts believe this is a cover up for additional cash burn"

"Model 3 ramp rate increased faster than expected, analysts expect Model S sales to be hurt as a result"

"Model S and X production costs drop dramatically, is Tesla focusing more on those production lines than the failing Model 3 line to distract investors?"

"Tesla Energy revenue grows faster than expected, analysts question focus on Tesla vehicles".

EVERYTHING IS BAD. NOTHING MATTERS ANYMORE!!! They will spin EVERYTHING against us!

This is why Elon said, a new player doesn’t simply have to be better, they have to be far far better to succeed.

I’m very confident what Tesla has is well strong enough. It’s just that the stock may not be fairly valued for several years when the effort to dissuade re Tesla/EVs or its effectiveness to influence opinion even with casual observers are fully spent. fwiw, that’s why I’m buy and hold long-term, and only trade on adding shares at silly low prices, often in the wake of the FUD machine having gone bananas. ie, this phenomenon that can irk you can just as well earn money for you.

 

[SteveG3]

You are right.

That's what we are up against. It really doesn't matter what Tesla does. I can think of any scenario and imagine how it could be turned negative.

Here are some examples:

"Tesla receives 25,000 reservations for Roadster, analyst expect cut in S and X production as a result"

"Tesla expands assembly capability in Europe to make room for new lines in California, analysts believe this is a cover up for additional cash burn"

"Model 3 ramp rate increased faster than expected, analysts expect Model S sales to be hurt as a result"

"Model S and X production costs drop dramatically, is Tesla focusing more on those production lines than the failing Model 3 line to distract investors?"

"Tesla Energy revenue grows faster than expected, analysts question focus on Tesla vehicles".

EVERYTHING IS BAD. NOTHING MATTERS ANYMORE!!! They will spin EVERYTHING against us!

ps, realize the nonsense only does so much. if the bulk of institutional investors didn’t know what is nonsense vs real, we wouldn’t be at the market cap of Ford or GM.

 

[Time]

This is why Elon said, a new player doesn’t simply have to be better, they have to be far far better to succeed.

I’m very confident what Tesla has is well strong enough. It’s just that the stock may not be fairly valued for several years when the effort to dissuade re Tesla/EVs or its effectiveness to influence opinion are fully spent.

Yeah I agree. I never for a second doubt Tesla as a company or their products. As a very long term holder who is roughly 80% stock and 20% options, I only regret the latter. Bought 2020 calls, first time buying options on Tesla in years...and I already regret it 2 weeks after purchasing them.

As soon as the stock seems stabilized and things seem smooth, it rejects it completely. The narrative changes in a heartbeat. What I thought was accounted for in the stock was clearly not. What I thought was understood was clearly not.

The risk vs reward for Tesla long shareholders is always against us. Unless you were lucky enough to buy TSLA in 2011/2012/2013 like I was, this stock is PAINFUL to hold.

You never know what day you are going to wake up and be down 10% because some short seller appeared on TV and made up some random crap.

I don't know how other people do it. I do it because I just can't see myself risking my hard-earned money on any other company out there...who knows how everyone else handles it.

 

[Time]

ps, realize the nonsense only does so much. if the bulk of institutional investors didn’t know what is nonsense vs real, we wouldn’t be at the market cap of Ford or GM.

That is true. I need to make a list of things like this to look at everyday, to prevent myself from wanting to pull a short-seller out of my computer screen and throwing them into a wall.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Tesla investors need to have thick skin. I remember when an associate came in one day after the Google IPO and said they had just bought a bunch at the opening price and we all gave her condolences since it was soooo overpriced. Ha! Amazon investors had to endure 10 years of analysts saying it was a bubble stock before they woke up to the fact that Amazon now has a retail monopoly, and oh by the way, runs half the Internet.

Tesla has so much growth ahead of it, it isn’t funny. Cars, pickup trucks, semis are only a beginning. At some point, they could sell power trains to the entire mobility industry. And has everyone forgotten that Tesla could still license their Supercharger network? The Boring company could be integrated into Tesla when cities start warming up to its potential. Tesla AI will eventually become a real thing. And Tesla energy, which generates electricity as well as storing it, is a huge industry in its own right.

And here we are arguing about a couple of thousand Model 3 deliveries at the end of a quarter. Pathetic.

Its always the same bottom line. As the only real Tesla analyst that existed, Andrea James, said, if you believe that Tesla can and will execute on its vision, then you’ve got nothing to worry about. Many people believe Elon is a con man, sucking at the government teat, delivers no real value, runs a Ponzi scheme, etc. Just take their money with a smile, and say thank you.

 

[Bet TSLA]

It honestly kills me inside knowing analysts are expecting 5,000 Model 3 delivered

I know of one analyst who is spreading such nonsense publicly. Are there others? Why should anybody care? The Model 3 is entering the steep part of its ramp. The stock will do the same.

 

[SteveG3]

[snip]

You never know what day you are going to wake up and be down 10% because some short seller appeared on TV and made up some random crap.

I don't know how other people do it. I do it because I just can't see myself risking my hard-earned money on any other company out there...who knows how everyone else handles it.

check out Cosmacelf's post : )

 

[TaoJones]

Let the Interstellar Conglomerate begin!

A billion here, a billion there, and soon it’ll turn into real money.

The parallels with regard to Google and Amazon, and for that matter, Apple, are notable.

Should be a fun ride.

 

[EinSV]

Yeah I agree. I never for a second doubt Tesla as a company or their products. As a very long term holder who is roughly 80% stock and 20% options, I only regret the latter. Bought 2020 calls, first time buying options on Tesla in years...and I already regret it 2 weeks after purchasing them.

As soon as the stock seems stabilized and things seem smooth, it rejects it completely. The narrative changes in a heartbeat. What I thought was accounted for in the stock was clearly not. What I thought was understood was clearly not.

The risk vs reward for Tesla long shareholders is always against us. Unless you were lucky enough to buy TSLA in 2011/2012/2013 like I was, this stock is PAINFUL to hold.

You never know what day you are going to wake up and be down 10% because some short seller appeared on TV and made up some random crap.

I don't know how other people do it. I do it because I just can't see myself risking my hard-earned money on any other company out there...who knows how everyone else handles it.

IMO risk/reward highly favors long-term investors.

The FUD gets really old and is effective in holding back/delaying stock gains IMO. As annoying as that is, it can benefit long-term investors with patience and thick skin — the key characteristics of successful TSLA investors IMO — as the stock continues to be offered at a discount to its long-term value in part because of FUD and excessive shorting that artificially distorts supply and demand.

Even in the short-ish term it has been very good — the stock is up ~46% YTD, which is nothing to sneeze at. In fact, it has been a very good year for TSLA investors despite the challenges of the Model 3 launch in part because FUD-driven expectations for the Model 3 were so low, and also because perceived impacts of Model 3 and S and X sales never materialized, Tesla keeps innovating and announcing game-changing products like the Semi and some big players like Tencent began recognizing Tesla’s long-term potential.

As a side note, IMO the FUD-generated atmosphere masks a key fact about TSLA — it should be selling with an innovation premium because it continues to create products that have potentially very large future income streams out of relatively tiny amounts of seed capital — an exceptionally efficient innovation machine.

Once Tesla addresses the challenges with the Model 3 launch this could turn out to be like late 2015/early 2016 when fear surrounding Tesla’s stumbles over the Model X launch created the best buying opportunity since 2013, even if the next few months turn out to be rocky (a distinct possibility).

Edit: Just saw @Cosmacelf’s post and agree 100%.

 

[EinSV]

Just checked in on the Model 3 threads. Sounds like a chaotic mess going on right now. There appear to be lots of changed delivery times and locations, VIN changes, delayed deliveries (even by just a few days), paperwork issues, surface damage issues like scratches, and just general confusion. What a mess! Hopefully, Tesla gets it smoothed out soon. I'm sure they will, but I personally would not want to be taking delivery of a Model 3 right now. Of course, I've got an S so I'm not even looking in that direction right now. I'm sure too that it's all blown up via the forums. Crossing my fingers that everything starts to go well soon!

I don’t think we can conclude anything from a few anecdotal reports. We had the same thing going on with invites with anecdotal reports of people being invited seemingly out of order but when you reviewed the spreadsheet 95% of people reporting were CA owners/first day reservationists and the few exceptions usually had an explanation if you dug into it. That’s not to say there are no examples of delivery snafus — there are — but it is human nature and the nature of social medial that any problems get magnified/highlighted compared to deliveries that go off without a hitch.

Unfortunately, @schonelucht set up the spreadsheet as a public resource but it has been locked for a few days now and he apparently is not responding to requests to unlock it because he says he is on vacation. That is very unfortunate, to say the least, because that was one of the best resources available to track the status of orders and deliveries.

 

[RobStark]

Verne "Mini-me" Troyer

 

[MartinAustin]

Is there a thread discussing Q4 delivery estimates? I can't find one...

(my guess is 29,999 cars delivered in Q4)

 

[GoTslaGo]

Is there a thread discussing Q4 delivery estimates? I can't find one...

(my guess is 29,999 cars delivered in Q4)

Here you go:

2017 Q4 Deliveries

 

[Tenable]

Yeah I agree. I never for a second doubt Tesla as a company or their products. As a very long term holder who is roughly 80% stock and 20% options, I only regret the latter. Bought 2020 calls, first time buying options on Tesla in years...and I already regret it 2 weeks after purchasing them.

As soon as the stock seems stabilized and things seem smooth, it rejects it completely. The narrative changes in a heartbeat. What I thought was accounted for in the stock was clearly not. What I thought was understood was clearly not.

The risk vs reward for Tesla long shareholders is always against us. Unless you were lucky enough to buy TSLA in 2011/2012/2013 like I was, this stock is PAINFUL to hold.

You never know what day you are going to wake up and be down 10% because some short seller appeared on TV and made up some random crap.

I don't know how other people do it. I do it because I just can't see myself risking my hard-earned money on any other company out there...who knows how everyone else handles it.

I'm not waiting a year this time, sent Time to the same farm as Myusername. Back to our regularly scheduled program.

 

[GoTslaGo]

Yeah I agree. I never for a second doubt Tesla as a company or their products. As a very long term holder who is roughly 80% stock and 20% options, I only regret the latter. Bought 2020 calls, first time buying options on Tesla in years...and I already regret it 2 weeks after purchasing them.

As soon as the stock seems stabilized and things seem smooth, it rejects it completely. The narrative changes in a heartbeat. What I thought was accounted for in the stock was clearly not. What I thought was understood was clearly not.

The risk vs reward for Tesla long shareholders is always against us. Unless you were lucky enough to buy TSLA in 2011/2012/2013 like I was, this stock is PAINFUL to hold.

You never know what day you are going to wake up and be down 10% because some short seller appeared on TV and made up some random crap.

I don't know how other people do it. I do it because I just can't see myself risking my hard-earned money on any other company out there...who knows how everyone else handles it.

It sounds like your recent angst is directly related to your options. I recall your earlier posts this year were much more relaxed.

If you had not purchased those, all your TSLA holdings would be green. So for a change you are seeing red from your 2020 calls. You have to remember that each call option is a multiple of 100 shares, so the price movements will be exaggerated, both upwards and down... the reason why folks buy calls and puts.

That being said, the J20s are the closest to stock substitutes. So you can hold them for quite awhile with little time decay. Only when you are within 3-6 month of expiration will you start seeing the J20s behave more like regular calls and experience much more time decay. So you're looking at mid to end of 2019.

So based on your thesis (and mine), the stock will rebound to the point that your J20s will be green again. The key is to hang tight. Set up a percentage gain mentally that you will be happy with those options, and watch it for that eventuality.

 

[NicoV]

It honestly kills me inside knowing analysts are expecting 5,000 Model 3 delivered by the time the ball drops on New Years Eve...

ITS NOT GOING TO BE EVEN CLOSE TO THAT!!!

So? None of this will matter when the Model 3 production reaches a couple of thousand per week. As long as you’re not playing with short term options.

 

[NicoV]

You never know what day you are going to wake up and be down 10% because some short seller appeared on TV and made up some random crap.

I don't know how other people do it. I do it because I just can't see myself risking my hard-earned money on any other company out there...who knows how everyone else handles it.

If you can’t handle 10% moves you shouldn’t invest in the stock market.
Also consider how your life would change if TSLA went to zero. If you don’t like that change, don’t invest.
Personally I only invest money that I can afford to lose.

 

[sundaymorning]

Hmm. Just took delivery of my Model 3 on 12/24. Configured 12/9, VIN assigned 12/22. Delivery at the Fremont Delivery Center started a little late, but everything else was perfect. I was very impressed by the whole process, and the fit and finish was great. There was nothing to put on the due bill. The whole walk-through and paperwork process took two hours; I never felt rushed. It was quite a contrast to the fast overview outside the factory showroom I got back in 2014 for my S (also in the busy time at the end of a quarter).

As an investor I was very positively impressed. Of course I may have been influenced by the Ludicrous Latte I ordered from the barista -- it was a caffeine monster with four shots of espresso!

Wonderful, congrats! I think the atmosphere is relaxed bc S&X deliveries will bear handidly. M3 production is definitely ramping, its 2013 all over again in about 3 months from now.