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Tesla's Supercharger Team was recently laid off. We discuss what this means for the company on today's TMC Podcast streaming live at 1PM PDT. You can watch on X or on YouTube where you can participate in the live chat.
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ValueAnalyst
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That's what households were paying, so retail? The article embedded my post 30187 is eye-opening.
I estimated the payback period for Powerwall 2 as ~4-5 years in Australia, which explains why it's so popular over there.
Just the demand from CA/SA/PR and solar roof installations alone should keep Powerwall 2 supply constraint for the foreseeable future. There isn't even a need to introduce Powerwall 3 yet; just spend every dollar to expand production for now.
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This seems to be in response to one of those zombies roaming about this time of year, but it reminds me of a tweet from former President of Mexico to Mr Trump, on that subject:
Vicente Fox Quesada on Twitter
in Mexico we have a saying that goes: tell me what you brag about and I will tell you what you’re lacking. Enough said!
Enough indeed.So SA has retail TOU meters? Wholesale market prices skyrocket when there are imbalances between generation and load--check the California ISO markets around the turn of the century.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Yet another neck and neck race...
Ask The Audience: What Did Elon Mean? - 2nd Edition
At the very least, this shows investor communication from Tesla still has a lot of room to improve.
Ask The Audience: What Did Elon Mean? - 2nd Edition
At the very least, this shows investor communication from Tesla still has a lot of room to improve.
sundaymorning
Active Member
Tesla Supercharger stays online in power outage thanks to Powerpack system
It’s business as usual in regards to Powerpack deployment to superchargers.
It’s business as usual in regards to Powerpack deployment to superchargers.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Finally you speak the truth.
Reciprocity
Active Member
Tesla does not have to sell a single panel or powerpack to make enormous amounts of money from them. Hundreds of thousands of Model 3s and Semis in the near future charging could help make Tesla the largest utility in the world. Financing this should be simple because the audience is pretty much captive at this point and even if there was competition for charging, Tesla would still have pricing power because they will be deploying microgrids that can generate 24x7 electricity for 5c/KWh. This would lead to massive cash flows that would be very resilient even in bad economies.
Buy Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) On Any Weakness
Here's Baird's take on the biggest catalysts for Tesla stock:
Here's Baird's take on the biggest catalysts for Tesla stock:
- The semi truck unveiling.
- The ramp of the Gigafactory and additional Tesla energy project announcements.
- Increasing Model 3 production and gross margins.
- The ramp of Tesla roof production and installations.
- Details about potential expansions in China and other locations, and future products.
sundaymorning
Active Member
It’s still a bit too early to make a call on which direction this stock will move but it’s looking like a few investors on the sidelines couldn’t resist buying. I hope we close above $329 today.
Hope you are right and the October Blues identified by D-egg-O is over as well.
In pre-Market, looks like we breached 200MA. Seems this is triggering a lot of traders to jump in and support it based on TA.
Shorts who have made good money will likely cover with profits before earnings.
As for longs, they are mostly silly and believers .. so likely they will stay put and not sell their shares in this cult stock. They still believe...
The current federal government of Australia is the "Liberal/National Coalition". But renewable energy advocates have been calling it the COALition, because it's completely in the pocket of coal mining companies.
A.k.a. the SolarCity model: customer pays per kwh to the solar/battery provider. For Tesla to do this they need to have lined up outside financing in advance (otherwise they have SolarCity's "bank run" problem) but they seem to be getting better at doing this.
When?
I wouldn't worry about covenants, which are almost never relevant. I would worry about access to funding at reasonable rates. I believe that borrowing an additional $10 billion (nondilutive) at reasonable rates probably can't be done until Tesla is showing profit. Maybe in a year. Tesla can line up sites and work through the tedious paperwork now, which does take a long time, but the heavy construction will probably have to wait until Tesla shows profit, since bond market investors can be quite conservative about that (even junk bond investors).
Government financing could change this picture -- if for instance India or France offered big incentives to locate there.
Estate planning tip which you probably already knew: if the stock's in your name (alone, not joint) and your wife will inherit it, under current US law when you die, the tax basis is reset, the capital gains up to that point go poof and she never has to pay taxes on them.
Reading the studies of bird societies (for social species of songbirds) is informative in this regard. Blood members or not, every society has some percentage of "cheaters" who bully and steal. A small level of cheating is OK -- and too much enforcement is a waste of effort -- but too many cheaters and the society collapses and everyone starves.
Yes. I'll help you out here:
You present no actual argument for why Tesla does not have a competitive lead and a high chance of high profits on the stationary battery business.
Others have presented detailed arguments for why Tesla does have a competitive lead and a high chance of high profits on the stationary battery business -- including J B Straubel. There is evidence that Tesla has the lowest pack-level costs in the business and that nobody else is close to catching up. There is evidence that Tesla is among the fastest deployers. There is evidence that the market is large enough for *all* the competitors to make decent profits for many years before it saturates. There is evidence that Tesla is winning more and larger contracts than the competitors. Now, if you had bothered to counter any of these points, you would have made an argument. But you didn't.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
I think once Model 3 is at 5000 weekly, revenue is about 22.5 billion annual. If gross margins are 30 for S/X and 25 for 3, they should have close to 4 billion in internal funding for the next plant. If they approach 7500 a week by end of 2018, they are closing on 30 billion in annual revenue they’ll have close to 5 billion. I think part of key to China and all future plants is if they can start on a modular basis, meaning start one line producing 250,000 annual and a matching battery line. Get that done in a year, and then get second line going in 2019 and get to 500,000 and then 1mm in 2020. Even at 30% gross margin they can only grow about 30-50% without going back for a cap raise in bonds or stock. I think a bond raise in China to fund the plant might be relatively easy though and maybe they could be Fremont sized by 2019.
Short term the earnings call will be all about Q4 guidance about Model 3 deliveries and production. If they can express confidence that issues are nearly resolved and on track for 5000 a week end of January or February, I hope we will see a bounce. Earnings could be pretty bad though. Lots of hiring for Model 3 production and deliveries that aren’t happening.
Anyhow, I’m starting to come around to VA 2mm in 2020, but see potential rough road here in short term. If we’re not up this week, we could be down or sideways end of week.
Very good comment but I'm not sure if I understand this:
"Even at 30% gross margin they can only grow about 30-50% without going back for a cap raise in bonds or stock."
If Tesla makes 30% GM on existing revenue, and invest this 30% back into manufacturing facility, does that translate to only 30% revenue growth? (I assume you meant revenue growth). I mean so far Tesla probably has invested <$5B into GF1 and Fremont M3 line, but they can get >>$5B revenue in 2018 from M3 already.
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