Multiple points ahead of dubious pointage, be warned.
So, don't hold me to this as I could be
entirely wrong. But I think at some point, it was noted that Tesla started "hiding" less of the initial battery degradation. I want to say it was mid or late 2019, so I'm not even sure OP's car would be in that bucket. They definitely do/did hide degradation though: I lost some small number of kWh before it ever impacted the displayed range.
If I'm remembering correctly,
most of the current Model 3 fleet is going to be the "older" vehicles that hide part of the initial degradation, skewing that histogram you linked to the right as most of the fleet would have that behaviour. With my remembered theory, a newer vehicle would show more degradation faster via the indicated range.
Another argument could be made for the data that vehicles in the odometer range you specified would actually be mostly
newer vehicles due to the low odometer reading, and thus the above theory is moot. This could support either side depending how you interpret the data with the above theory.
Yet another wrench to throw in is it sounds like OP uses Sentry Mode often (
@djrodtc does this sound right?). While this doesn't tick up the odometer, it does contribute to the wear of the battery pack over time. Although I expect it to impact a light commuter a lot more and shouldn't be significant in this case (unless the Sentry usage is
a lot, like 6 hours or more per day). Note that things like AC usage factor into this as well, technically, including Cabin Overheat Protection.
Final point, TeslaFi is probably massively biased by North American data and a North American climate with North American driving and storage behaviours. I'd say even Canada differs quite a bit from the US in this regard, and I imagine Spain is quite a bit different (but I do not know how, or for certain, or what impacts this may have on battery life).
After all that, I agree with the above poster. Battery lottery.