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Recent content by Ingenieur

  1. I

    China Market situation and outlook

    Thanks but i think these 25% are additional 25% just announced 1 week ago and set to become effective in 2 weeks. I just cant find what cars are included.
  2. I

    China Market situation and outlook

    Hey, does anyone know if the new additional China Tariffs of 25% of one week ago apply to Electric cars too? China slaps 25% tariffs on $16 billion worth of US goods
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    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    We dont know how much costs TSLA moved between quarters, it will all show up in Q4. We also dont know how Tesla accounted profit from sale of 20 Mio Nevada tax credits, i wasnt even aware of it back then. My biggest error was underestimating the impact from ca. 1300 fully loaded PX90D being...
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    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    If one believes TSLA will miss its own guidance in Q4 (20-22k) cars, lose 250-300 Mio on GAAP basis and pull Model X-like Launch for Model 3 at the end of 2017, may one see the stock as not oversold today?
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    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    Is it me or did Elon gain some weight?
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    New Product= P75D?

    I heard from former employee that was developed and is basically in drawer, back when he was with Tesla they didnt greenlight it (P70D back then) fearing it would canibalize P85D, now with P100DL, there is more distance. He expects it to be priced around same as S90D but to have somewhere...
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    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    So what is your Estimate for GAAP ? Mine is ca. 200 Mio loss (assuming 30 Mio ZEV sales), 4500 direct leases (Tesla guided for 15% or ca. 3800 but i think its more like 18%). ASP of just 100k$ due to tons of S60 and Discounts and 18% Gross margin. Also SGAA/R&D being 550 Mio (40 Mio higher)
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    Tracking short interest

    Just wanted to note that at 400 $ / Share and ca. 185 Mio shares (after solar city) and if we include convertible bonds and options outstanding, Tesla would be second largest car maker by market cap, ahead of VW,GM,Honda,Ford etc, only second to Toyota. One can dream
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    Potential Solar City bankruptcy impact on Tesla Stock

    In face of recent events, its time to revisit this thread: How much impact would have SCTY Bankruptcy have on Tesla if the merger fails? Non-Gaap accounting will get under ever more scrutiny
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    SCTY Acquisition makes no strategic, financial or operational sense!

    I believe SCTY was cut off from capital market, Musk is trying to save it, at cost of risking Tesla (not Tesla isnt at risk)
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    SolarCity (SCTY)

    Bonds are guaranteed to be repaid, they are higher up in the Chain above Equity, Equity is an option on any potention profits/dividends, Bonds are a guarantee, if bondholders are expect not to get repaid (as bonds imply) shareholders right are nearly worthless, bondholders not repaid =Chapter 11...
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    Potential Solar City bankruptcy impact on Tesla Stock

    Hey there, as you all know im a Tesla and Solar City bear and i have been sharing my thoughts with you for quite some time. So my opinion is obviously very negatively biased against both stocks. Now thats not just stock but also bonds of Solar City are trading at very distressed levels...
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    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    Can Tesla release Model 3 in 2017 if there arent even any early mules driving around? This would equivalent of virgin birth, unless we see first mules by Summer there is 0 chance, and even then its slim. I mean they could hand over few dozen Betas to selected customers on Eve of 2017-2018, with...
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    SolarCity (SCTY)

    Bonds Detail Bonds Detail I dont really care but holding SCTY stock when bonds are trading like this, and this company needs capital like oxygen, seems irrational. If nothing changes they are toast this year
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    Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

    My understanding is that the doors are the main problem, the risk is that you will have to get into SeC to realign / readjust the doors every few months, Tesla doesnt want this to happen. The risk not that they cant ramp the production, the risk is that they deliver cars that have chronic defect...