Annual Delivery and revenue predictions for Tesla Motors during the current decade.

Benz · Feb 9, 2014

Deliveries:

2014: S + X = 50,000
2015: S + X = 100,000
2016: S + X = 200,000
2017: S + X = 220,000 and E = 400,000
2018: S + X = 240,000 and E = 800,000
2019: S + X = 280,000 and E = 1,600,000

Revenue (average sales price for S/X = 100,000 and E = 50,000):

2014: 5B
2015: 10B
2016: 20B
2017: 22B + 20B = 42B
2018: 24B + 40B = 64B
2019: 28B + 80B = 108B

What will the annual earnings and the annual EPS be during these years?

Mario Kadastik · Feb 9, 2014

I would dial it down a bit to more realistic growth patterns

2014: S + X = 40,000
2015: S + X = 75,000
2016: S + X = 120,000
2017: S + X = 180,000 and E = 25,000
2018: S + X = 200,000 and E = 100,000
2019: S + X = 200,000 and E = 250,000

Initial year of X is 2015, initial year of E is 2017 and I highly doubt that the first year they can really achieve any substantial volume. 400k for E in the inaugural year I think is faaar too high and is setting TSLA up for likely underachievement in many peoples eyes if they really ran with those numbers from you Benz. While I believe the E rampup will be far faster having learned from S and X, the actual rampup is still going to take a while. I'm expecting E to actually start shipments in 2nd half of 2017.

Also I'd likely dial the ASP down to 90k for S/X (possibly 95k for combination if we assume equal mix) and ca 40k for E as unlike the S and X the E will be more biased towards cheaper models as the buyers are more finance limited and a lot of people will be stretching it with far more meaning than those who stretched for S. So redoing the revenue too:

2014: 3.8B
2015: 7.1B
2016: 11.4B
2017: 17B + 1B = 18B
2018: 19B + 4B = 23B
2019: 19B + 8B = 27B

Earnings and EPS will probably depend A LOT on how much TM is continuing the CapEx on supercharger rollout and service/sales center rollout as well as continued investments in R&D. Those are far far tougher to estimate.

Benz · Feb 9, 2014

Mario Kadastik said:
I would dial it down a bit to more realistic growth patterns

2014: S + X = 40,000
2015: S + X = 75,000
2016: S + X = 120,000
2017: S + X = 180,000 and E = 25,000
2018: S + X = 200,000 and E = 100,000
2019: S + X = 200,000 and E = 250,000

Initial year of X is 2015, initial year of E is 2017 and I highly doubt that the first year they can really achieve any substantial volume. 400k for E in the inaugural year I think is faaar too high and is setting TSLA up for likely underachievement in many peoples eyes if they really ran with those numbers from you Benz. While I believe the E rampup will be far faster having learned from S and X, the actual rampup is still going to take a while. I'm expecting E to actually start shipments in 2nd half of 2017.

Also I'd likely dial the ASP down to 90k for S/X (possibly 95k for combination if we assume equal mix) and ca 40k for E as unlike the S and X the E will be more biased towards cheaper models as the buyers are more finance limited and a lot of people will be stretching it with far more meaning than those who stretched for S. So redoing the revenue too:

2014: 3.8B
2015: 7.1B
2016: 11.4B
2017: 17B + 1B = 18B
2018: 19B + 4B = 23B
2019: 19B + 8B = 27B

Earnings and EPS will probably depend A LOT on how much TM is continuing the CapEx on supercharger rollout and service/sales center rollout as well as continued investments in R&D. Those are far far tougher to estimate.

Mario, thanks for posting your thoughts in this thread.

We do not know what the real numbers are going to look like in the coming years. Let's assume that they will be somewhere inbetween your and mine numbers. But I know one thing, and that is that every year will be substantially different to the year before (in a positive way).

mrdoubleb · Feb 9, 2014

I think we generally consider the Model S to be an Audi A8/S8, BMW 6/7 series, and Mercedes S class competitor. Sales of these product families combined are around 60-70 thousand per brand according to Wikipedia.

Now, for the Model X, that's the Mercedes M, BMW X5, Audi Q7 market, and those guys sell 110k each per year.

So if S + X sold 160-180k together they would be matching the big 3 German competitors. Can they do that? In time, absolutley. Will they sell 280k, i.e. Audi and BMW combined? That's a pretty bold prediction.

Benz · Feb 9, 2014

mrdoubleb said:
I think we generally consider the Model S to be an Audi A8/S8, BMW 6/7 series, and Mercedes S class competitor. Sales of these product families combined are around 60-70 thousand per brand according to Wikipedia.

Now, for the Model X, that's the Mercedes M, BMW X5, Audi Q7 market, and those guys sell 110k each per year.

So if S + X sold 160-180k together they would be matching the big 3 German competitors. Can they do that? In time, absolutley. Will they sell 280k, i.e. Audi and BMW combined? That's a pretty bold prediction.

The Tesla Model S and the Tesla Model X will eat the market share of their competitors, just because the S and the X are a better value propesition (in combination with the Supercharger network).

Robert.Boston · Feb 10, 2014

mrdoubleb said:
I think we generally consider the Model S to be an Audi A8/S8, BMW 6/7 series, and Mercedes S class competitor. Sales of these product families combined are around 60-70 thousand per brand according to Wikipedia.

Now, for the Model X, that's the Mercedes M, BMW X5, Audi Q7 market, and those guys sell 110k each per year.

So if S + X sold 160-180k together they would be matching the big 3 German competitors. Can they do that? In time, absolutley. Will they sell 280k, i.e. Audi and BMW combined? That's a pretty bold prediction.

I think you're being overly restrictive in your market sizing. There are many of us who bought Model Ss as replacements for cars outside of the "large luxury sedan" class. My previous two cars were an Audi A3 and an A4. Given the unique attractiveness of the all-electric power train, I would at a minimum include the BMW 5 series, Mercedes E class, and Audi A6/7, plus several entries in Cadillac's lineup. Also add all of Jaguar's offerings, the larger Porsche vehicles (although those are just rounding errors). Then I'd add 30% to reflect the people who refused to use that much gasoline to move themselves around but who would otherwise choose to own a larger high-end vehicle.

According to this site, there were 1.2 million "luxury cars" sold in the US alone last year. While that's a pretty broad category, it gives a better sense of the market scale. And that's just the US; Europe's number is similar, and Asia is much larger for the real luxury cars.

In short, i don't think Tesla has anything to worry about with running out of addressable market in the near term.

NigelM · Feb 10, 2014

Robert.Boston said:
In short, i don't think Tesla has anything to worry about with running out of addressable market in the near term.

I agree but...

Benz said:
Deliveries:

2014: S + X = 50,000
2015: S + X = 100,000
2016: S + X = 200,000
2017: S + X = 220,000 and E = 400,000
2018: S + X = 240,000 and E = 800,000
2019: S + X = 280,000 and E = 1,600,000

...I think you're way off the mark. The X deliveries in 2014 won't reach four figures and quite possibly will be under 100 units so Tesla would need to double the 2013 S production/sales rate just to get to your 2014 figure; despite an apparently increasing production rate right now I confidently predict that's 50,000 S deliveries in 2014 is not going to happen. An X ramp in 2015 might deliver 20,000 cars at most which mean your figures would require 80,000 Model S to be delivered; the current production configuration can't manage that so there would need to be substantial ramp up and expansion for the S at the same time as Tesla is preparing for the X, extremely unlikely. Finally, you're taking 2017 as a given for the Gen III launch and 400,000 out in the same year but we're still a long way from the battery giga factory and if a launch takes place in 2017 there's no way they'll get 400,000 cars out the door straightaway.

Mario Kadastik · Feb 10, 2014

And that's why I reworked the numbers to what I think is optimistic yet realistic prediction

NigelM · Feb 10, 2014

Mario Kadastik said:
And that's why I reworked the numbers to what I think is optimistic yet realistic prediction

I agree you're being optimistic :wink:. There will be no significant X numbers delivered this year and Tesla was meeting the pent-up European demand in 4Q13 but if they repeated Q4 in every quarter this year they'd still only reach <30,000. I'm bullish enough to see them getting 30-40,000 but that's the top end of my forecast (although I'll be very happy to be proven wrong).

I don't see Tesla delivering more than 20,000 Xs in 2015 so without a production reconfiguration they may be constrained to 50,000 Ss. Your 75,000 total for 2015 is probably the upper limit right now.

772 · Feb 10, 2014

Robert.Boston said:
Then I'd add 30% to reflect the people who refused to use that much gasoline to move themselves around but who would otherwise choose to own a larger high-end vehicle.

That's a pretty large correction factor... I would be one of those people you're talking about, but I always thought I was the rare exception. Most people usually tell me that, if someone can afford the car, they can afford the fuel cost as well. That seems like a big assumption to make considering that gas ends up being the largest ongoing expense of owning a car and a large fraction of the purchase price over time. And there is also the desire to be green as well, of course. But still, 30%... I would be interested to know how you arrived at that.

mrdoubleb · Feb 10, 2014

Robert.Boston said:
I think you're being overly restrictive in your market sizing. There are many of us who bought Model Ss as replacements for cars outside of the "large luxury sedan" class. My previous two cars were an Audi A3 and an A4. Given the unique attractiveness of the all-electric power train, I would at a minimum include the BMW 5 series, Mercedes E class, and Audi A6/7, plus several entries in Cadillac's lineup. Also add all of Jaguar's offerings, the larger Porsche vehicles (although those are just rounding errors). Then I'd add 30% to reflect the people who refused to use that much gasoline to move themselves around but who would otherwise choose to own a larger high-end vehicle.

According to this site, there were 1.2 million "luxury cars" sold in the US alone last year. While that's a pretty broad category, it gives a better sense of the market scale. And that's just the US; Europe's number is similar, and Asia is much larger for the real luxury cars.

In short, i don't think Tesla has anything to worry about with running out of addressable market in the near term.

And I would even agree with that to some extent, but then we have to stick to this all the time. When the Model S strated to hit sales milestones last year, the press compared it to the A/S8, 6/7 BMW and the Mercedes S. Well, ok, that's the press, you may say, but then Tesla & Elon themselves accepted those numbers and started repeating the stats and how much of a win this is. (Which it is). Besides, when you go 1 level down with the big German luxury brands, you end up with 300k+ sales figures for the sedan alone, and then your numbers suddenly mean the S + X together won't even reach BMW 5 series levels by the end of the decade.

Just saying, we should be consistent with stats.

vin5xxx · Feb 10, 2014

JB Straubel in his Stanford presentation showed a Tesla slide that had 700,000 unit sales in 2019. The supply constraints are going to be real for about a decade.

Grendal · Feb 12, 2014

Tesla amazing achievements have made me giddy with excitement. I think Mario's numbers are closer to reality the Benz. Even Mario's numbers reflect everything going perfectly with no hiccups along the way. The Model E will be directly tied to the successful creation of the giga-factory. We'll need to see serious progress on that front by early 2016. We'll need to see plans, projections, and commitments by early 2015 for the factory. Tesla should be buying or have already bought the equipment needed to build the Model X. They did get $10 million sales tax break from the state of CA for the equipment purchase.

Benz · Feb 20, 2014

Benz said:
Deliveries:

2014: S + X = 50,000
2015: S + X = 100,000
2016: S + X = 200,000
2017: S + X = 220,000 and E = 400,000
2018: S + X = 240,000 and E = 800,000
2019: S + X = 280,000 and E = 1,600,000

Revenue (average sales price for S/X = 100,000 and E = 50,000):

2014: 5B
2015: 10B
2016: 20B
2017: 22B + 20B = 42B
2018: 24B + 40B = 64B
2019: 28B + 80B = 108B

What will the annual earnings and the annual EPS be during these years?

OK, the above numbers may be a bit too high.

These are more realistic delivery numbers:

2014: S + X = 40,000
2015: S + X = 80,000
2016: S + X = 160,000
2017: S + X = 200,000 and E = 250,000
2018: S + X = 240,000 and E = 500,000
2019: S + X = 280,000 and E = 1,000,000

Revenue (average sales price for S/X = 90,000 and E = 45,000):

2014: 3.6B
2015: 7.2B
2016: 14.4B
2017: 18B + 11.25B = 29.25B
2018: 21.6B + 22.5B = 44.1B
2019: 25.2B + 45B = 70.2B

Do you also think that these numbers are more realistic?

Maknyuzz · Feb 20, 2014

I won't comment on full decade.. but I'm sharing my guesstimate for 2014 in details..

Unit 2014
Q1: guidance 6,400. I think they will deliver 6,700
Q2: 1,000 in pipeline + I think they can do 7,900 (6,900 Q4, 7,400 Q1, then 7,900 Q2 is a safe assumption) + a few hundred surprise = 9,200
Q3: battery constraint lifted, they should be able to do 10,000 car finally. Will announce 10,100 with cheesy headline, we broke 10,000 quarterly delivery milestone
Q4: they mentioned 1000 cars/wk by eoy 2014, but at the beginning of Q4 perhaps at 900 cars/wk. so 11,500 should be a reasonable guesstimate. Model X probably only 50-100 units.
Total Unit 2014: 37,500

Revenue 2014
ASP could be a bit higher than 90K imo. In Q3, the ASP is $102K (including misc. items like ZEV, Train Sales, etc2), in Q4, the ASP is $105K.
I think ASP at $97-98K is a pretty safe guesstimate
Total Revenue 2014 (Non-GAAP): $3.65-3.7B

If we apply P/S of 10, which I think is relatively low (lowest P/S is 7, highest 18.5), we could be at $36-37B valuation or $290-300 by next year..

evme · Feb 20, 2014

Maknyuzz said:
I won't comment on full decade.. but I'm sharing my guesstimate for 2014 in details..

Unit 2014
Q1: guidance 6,400. I think they will deliver 6,700
Q2: 1,000 in pipeline + I think they can do 7,900 (6,900 Q4, 7,400 Q1, then 7,900 Q2 is a safe assumption) + a few hundred surprise = 9,200
Q3: battery constraint lifted, they should be able to do 10,000 car finally. Will announce 10,100 with cheesy headline, we broke 10,000 quarterly delivery milestone
Q4: they mentioned 1000 cars/wk by eoy 2014, but at the beginning of Q4 perhaps at 900 cars/wk. so 11,500 should be a reasonable guesstimate. Model X probably only 50-100 units.
Total Unit 2014: 37,500

Revenue 2014
ASP could be a bit higher than 90K imo. In Q3, the ASP is $102K (including misc. items like ZEV, Train Sales, etc2), in Q4, the ASP is $105K.
I think ASP at $97-98K is a pretty safe guesstimate
Total Revenue 2014 (Non-GAAP): $3.65-3.7B

If we apply P/S of 10, which I think is relatively low (lowest P/S is 7, highest 18.5), we could be at $36-37B valuation or $290-300 by next year..

Are you factoring in that at end of the year they will probably sell off the loaners like they did this year?

TSLAopt · Feb 20, 2014

evme said:
Are you factoring in that at end of the year they will probably sell off the loaners like they did this year?

Also the excitement of the Model X and GEN III reveal and some more periodic short squeezing I think the stock could easily be at 350 by end of year...500 by end of 2015 and 1000+ sometime in 2017-2019 after GEN III is an obvious success in the eyese of the global mass market....that is when I am free to retire if I want

Benz · Feb 21, 2014

Maknyuzz said:
I won't comment on full decade.. but I'm sharing my guesstimate for 2014 in details..

Unit 2014
Q1: guidance 6,400. I think they will deliver 6,700
Q2: 1,000 in pipeline + I think they can do 7,900 (6,900 Q4, 7,400 Q1, then 7,900 Q2 is a safe assumption) + a few hundred surprise = 9,200
Q3: battery constraint lifted, they should be able to do 10,000 car finally. Will announce 10,100 with cheesy headline, we broke 10,000 quarterly delivery milestone
Q4: they mentioned 1000 cars/wk by eoy 2014, but at the beginning of Q4 perhaps at 900 cars/wk. so 11,500 should be a reasonable guesstimate. Model X probably only 50-100 units.
Total Unit 2014: 37,500

Revenue 2014
ASP could be a bit higher than 90K imo. In Q3, the ASP is $102K (including misc. items like ZEV, Train Sales, etc2), in Q4, the ASP is $105K.
I think ASP at $97-98K is a pretty safe guesstimate
Total Revenue 2014 (Non-GAAP): $3.65-3.7B

If we apply P/S of 10, which I think is relatively low (lowest P/S is 7, highest 18.5), we could be at $36-37B valuation or $290-300 by next year..

Very interesting.

I would like you to tell us your thoughts about deliveries and revenue in 2015 as well.

Benz · Feb 23, 2014

Your expected annual global reservations for Model S/X/E during the current decade?

My expected annual global reservations for Model S/X/E during the current decade are:

2014
S = 40.000
X = 20.000
E = -

2015
S = 60.000
X = 60.000
E = 50.000

2016
S = 80.000
X = 80.000
E = 100.000

2017
S = 100.000
X = 100.000
E = 200.000

2018
S = 120.000
X = 120.000
E = 400.000

2019
S = 140.000
X = 140.000
E = 1.000.000

Reservations are a direct result of demand.

What are your expected annual global reservations for Model S/X/E during the current decade?

Benz · Feb 23, 2014

CalDreamin said:
2014
s = 36,000
x = 0
e = 0

2015
s = 43,000
x = 15,000
e = 0

2016
s = 50,000
x = 50,000
e = 0

2017
s = 50,000
x = 50,000
e = 50,000

2018
s = 50,000
x = 50,000
e = 120,000

2019
s = 50,000
x = 50,000
e = 250,000

This thread is about reservations not actual deliveries.

In January 2014 and February 2014 there were already a number of reservations made for the Tesla Model X, and there will be more reservations made for the Tesla Model X in the remaining months in 2014. So, how can it be "0" in 2014 as you have mentioned in your list?

Annual Delivery and revenue predictions for Tesla Motors during the current decade.

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