Tsunami update (of hurt)

DonPedro · Apr 30, 2013

I posted recently that losses by shorts since Nov '12 amount to approx. $1bn. I think this is a fun metric to track. At the time of writing, the share price is gyrating around $57.50 (probably completely different by the time I post). Assuming that the short interest since yesterday is $29 million, that adds $72 million to the shorting bill. Interest adds another $2 million.

Total short losses:

Trading: $884 million
Interest paid: $187 million
Total losses from shorting: $1071 million

avatar · Apr 30, 2013

DonPedro said:
I posted recently that losses by shorts since Nov '12 amount to approx. $1bn. I think this is a fun metric to track. At the time of writing, the share price is gyrating around $57.50 (probably completely different by the time I post). Assuming that the short interest since yesterday is $29 million, that adds $72 million to the shorting bill. Interest adds another $2 million.

Total short losses:

Trading: $884 million
Interest paid: $187 million
Total losses from shorting: $1071 million

haha. I agree. This should be fun to track.

Right_Said_Fred · Apr 30, 2013

It's a shame. They could have used the money to buy the best car in the world (13,000 of them actually).

DonPedro · Apr 30, 2013

Right_Said_Fred said:
It's a shame. They could have used the money to buy the best car in the world (13,000 of them actually).

That money has been redistributed to people who are far more likely to use it to buy that very car!

vgrinshpun · Apr 30, 2013

DonPedro said:
That money has been redistributed to people who are far more likely to use it to buy that very car!

How very true. Count me as a one of hopefully many who will spend the fortunes wisely. Looks like my gains on positions held on margin will afford me top of the line P85. I am sitting tight for now - people taking profit out now might regret it.

TD1 · Apr 30, 2013

DonPedro said:
That money has been redistributed to people who are far more likely to use it to buy that very car!

love that thought

ggr · Apr 30, 2013

DonPedro said:
That money has been redistributed to people who are far more likely to use it to buy that very car!

But I already have one of each! I can't use another one!?

Rifleman · Apr 30, 2013

ggr said:
But I already have one of each! I can't use another one!?

Don't worry, there is always Model X

DonPedro · Apr 30, 2013

So, from now on I will only be posting these updates after market close.

Total short losses:

Trading: $783 million
Interest paid: $187 million
Total losses from shorting: $970 million

bacrossman · Apr 30, 2013

ggr said:
But I already have one of each! I can't use another one!?

If you are looking for a reason to buy another, I am sure there are plenty of us who would enjoy a gift

Hey thanks for the info DonPedro. It is a real trick trying to determine how much of the stocks' recent run is a result of a "short squeeze" and how much it is people buying because due to optimism around possible "short squeeze" and the May 8th release of Q1 financials.

kenliles · Apr 30, 2013

thanks Don- it's another great data point and pretty spectacular at that; I have a feeling it's going to get a lot worse by year end

DonPedro · Apr 30, 2013

@bacrossman

Yes it is. But please don't take this thread as anything else than an expression of joy at being at the right side of the trade (for the time being) and at Elon Musk being proved right yet again. The info here is not really useful investor info.

As for the short interest, we do have a few data point elsewhere in this part of the forum. A few days ago there were no shares to short, which typically has meant 30-31 million short interest. Then yesterday luvb2b reported a lot of shares available for shorting. Over the past three trading days, the total volume has been 12,7 million - ~4 million above average. In lack of a better estimate, let us assume that this 4 million were shorts covering. In that case the short interest should currently be around 26-27 million. So still a healthy amount. I would be surprised if it really has fallen that much yet.

ShortSlaver · Apr 30, 2013

DonPedro said:
Over the past three trading days, the total volume has been 12,7 million - ~4 million above average. In lack of a better estimate, let us assume that this 4 million were shorts covering. In that case the short interest should currently be around 26-27 million. So still a healthy amount. I would be surprised if it really has fallen that much yet.

Not to mention new ones that have been born.

adiggs · Apr 30, 2013

With this huge runup in price, just look at what a marvelous shorting opportunity now exists!

mitch672 · Apr 30, 2013

adiggs said:
With this huge runup in price, just look at what a marvelous shorting opportunity now exists!

Yeah, those who shorted at $30, and then $40 probably had similar thoughts

How high is high, how high is the sky? Betting against Elon has proven to be a bad strategy historically.

avatar · Apr 30, 2013

mitch672 said:
Yeah, those who shorted at $30, and then $40 probably had similar thoughts
How high is high, how high is the sky? Betting against Elon has proven to be a bad strategy historically.

this is exactly right. There is no reason at all to believe $55 is a "high" price for Tesla. My personal feeling is that tesla is undervalued. The fundamentals (if Elon's goals are hit) favor a $80 tesla this year - pessimistically. Go ahead and plug in the numbers yourself for the next 4 quarters at 5000 cars per quarter, ASP of $90K and an average margin of 19% for the entire year. Assume costs for R&D and business ops is the same as 2012. There is a clear fundamental case for a $80/share tesla right now.

Once Tesla announces *how* they were profitable, the market will HAVE to wake up to this.

Soflason · Apr 30, 2013

TD1 said:
love that thought

+1 :biggrin:

kenliles · Apr 30, 2013

avatar said:
this is exactly right. There is no reason at all to believe $55 is a "high" price for Tesla. My personal feeling is that tesla is undervalued. The fundamentals (if Elon's goals are hit) favor a $80 tesla this year - pessimistically. Go ahead and plug in the numbers yourself for the next 4 quarters at 5000 cars per quarter, ASP of $90K and an average margin of 19% for the entire year. Assume costs for R&D and business ops is the same as 2012. There is a clear fundamental case for a $80/share tesla right now.

Once Tesla announces *how* they were profitable, the market will HAVE to wake up to this.

agree with that. It's really a question of how long it will take for other investors to believe in those same projections. By the time they're obvious, the price will be on to a new projection..

vgrinshpun · Apr 30, 2013

avatar said:
this is exactly right. There is no reason at all to believe $55 is a "high" price for Tesla. My personal feeling is that tesla is undervalued. The fundamentals (if Elon's goals are hit) favor a $80 tesla this year - pessimistically. Go ahead and plug in the numbers yourself for the next 4 quarters at 5000 cars per quarter, ASP of $90K and an average margin of 19% for the entire year. Assume costs for R&D and business ops is the same as 2012. There is a clear fundamental case for a $80/share tesla right now.

Once Tesla announces *how* they were profitable, the market will HAVE to wake up to this.

I wholeheartedly agree. See my post Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - Page 79 for additional information to back the same point.

ppl · May 6, 2013

Ok before I have stated not in short squeeze but now it starts. The stock is no longer trading on company fundamentals. If you look at mid day volume dropped dramatically and price stayed constant. Flat line. Covering without raising price. Very few shares shaken loose. Later only way to buy more was dramatic rise in price. No where near enough shares sold to cover. We'd evening must be looking very scary to shorts as price approaches 60. Expect more of same tomorrow perhaps accelerating as report approaches. I like tsunami analogy water approaches slowly but keeps coming

Tsunami update (of hurt)

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