Will Tesla Introduce Distruptive battery technology with BlueStar/NextGen?

aronth5 · Nov 24, 2012

Previously posted by EV_QC in the Bluestar thread but the article is focused on the possibility of Tesla introducing disruptive battery technology and since I'm not very familiar with this topic I was interested in the feedback from the battery experts in the forum. Article seems overly optimistic.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1024301-will-tesla-disrupt

"As the following graph shows, a prospective 300 mile range BlueStar B55 designed around 2015 (optimistic case) Li-ion batteries handily beats any BMW 3 or Audi A4 on price. And the 160 mile and 240 mile range B26 and B39 offer a lot of competition to some very mainstream mid-size cars including Toyota's Camry, GM's Malibu and Ford's Fusion. According to the Wall Street Journal, a quarter million mid-size cars were sold in the United States. In October. If Tesla can crack the mid-size sedan market with BlueStar, it could easily sell hundreds of thousands of units a year. This is disruptive."

Zythryn · Nov 24, 2012

No, they won't introduce disruptive battery tech, but I do believe they could introduce disruptive cars.
The battery tech is not developed by Tesla. They use mature, consumer battery technology that already exists. I see no reason for them to change that.
They have managed to actually design a car around the batteries. Not only figuring out how to jam in the batteries (as the other auto makers are still doing) but to use the batteries to make the car better.

AnOutsider · Nov 24, 2012

I've always wondered what would happen if tesla vertically integrated on the battery front. For now though, I suspect they're better served partnering with battery specialists (as they've done with Panasonic).

ItsNotAboutTheMoney · Nov 24, 2012

AnOutsider said:
I've always wondered what would happen if tesla vertically integrated on the battery front. For now though, I suspect they're better served partnering with battery specialists (as they've done with Panasonic).

It's better to say that they've partnered with cell specialists. They use expertise in battery management to lower the cost per mile of batteries by building them out of cheap, abundant commodity cells.

If BlueStar introduces any new battery technology I think it would be hybrid batteries that combine high-density cells with a more limited set of high-power cells (or supercapacitors) to allow reasonable performance at a more affordable price point. I'd expect any other battery technology to appear in the Model S and/or X.

Where Tesla could be disruptive is by changing the ownership model and making it easy for BlueStar owner to rent. It goes against the vision of 100% electric, unless they rent the 85kWh Model S/X, but Tesla could do it since they don't care about selling ICEVs and need only focus on making BlueStar+rental more desirable and cheaper than PHEV alternatives.

stopcrazypp · Nov 25, 2012

ItsNotAboutTheMoney said:
If BlueStar introduces any new battery technology I think it would be hybrid batteries that combine high-density cells with a more limited set of high-power cells (or supercapacitors) to allow reasonable performance at a more affordable price point. I'd expect any other battery technology to appear in the Model S and/or X.

Bingo. They have applied for patents in this area (hybrid batteries). The other option for hybrid batteries is to use a low power, even higher density chemistry (like lithium air) and combine with the current cells for higher-power ones.

I don't see them doing vertical integration until at least after BlueStar (when they might have enough capital to open their own battery factory).

vigo · May 30, 2014

FUNNY how WRONG you were back at the end of 2012 when you posted the below comment. Now it is 2014 and "dirsuptive battery tech" is EXACTLY what Tesla is trying to do - admitted by their own staff! It's like you're so closed-minded you could not see that this is one thing Tesla would be involved with. Why would they NOT explore/invest in new, disruptive battery tech, since they are building cars powered by batteries?

Now they plan to disrupt not only "car batteries," but the overall electric grid as well - and I am SO HAPPY, because the entrenched 'government-bed-partners-Electric-Companies' like TVA (Tennessee Valley Authority - the actual electricity generator/producer for a large part of the Southeast US) NEED COMPETITION! Right now, they chage "whatever they feel like" and raise rates "whenver they feel like it."

Zythryn said:
No, they won't introduce disruptive battery tech, but I do believe they could introduce disruptive cars.
The battery tech is not developed by Tesla. They use mature, consumer battery technology that already exists. I see no reason for them to change that.
They have managed to actually design a car around the batteries. Not only figuring out how to jam in the batteries (as the other auto makers are still doing) but to use the batteries to make the car better.

AnOutsider · May 30, 2014

vigo said:
FUNNY how WRONG you were back at the end of 2012 when you posted the below comment. Now it is 2014 and "dirsuptive battery tech" is EXACTLY what Tesla is trying to do - admitted by their own staff! It's like you're so closed-minded you could not see that this is one thing Tesla would be involved with. Why would they NOT explore/invest in new, disruptive battery tech, since they are building cars powered by batteries?

Now they plan to disrupt not only "car batteries," but the overall electric grid as well - and I am SO HAPPY, because the entrenched 'government-bed-partners-Electric-Companies' like TVA (Tennessee Valley Authority - the actual electricity generator/producer for a large part of the Southeast US) NEED COMPETITION! Right now, they chage "whatever they feel like" and raise rates "whenver they feel like it."

Not necessary to down Z on this (especially so harshly). He gave his opinion on what Tesla was likely to do. Their model, at the time, was about using commodity batteries to lower costs.

Looking back though, I'm going to pat myself on the back

AnOutsider said:
I've always wondered what would happen if tesla vertically integrated on the battery front. For now though, I suspect they're better served partnering with battery specialists (as they've done with Panasonic).

stopcrazypp · May 30, 2014

vigo said:
FUNNY how WRONG you were back at the end of 2012 when you posted the below comment. Now it is 2014 and "dirsuptive battery tech" is EXACTLY what Tesla is trying to do - admitted by their own staff! It's like you're so closed-minded you could not see that this is one thing Tesla would be involved with. Why would they NOT explore/invest in new, disruptive battery tech, since they are building cars powered by batteries?

To be fair, he's not really wrong, the giga-factory is still using conventional battery tech (not disruptive). And the main partner who developed the cells is still Panasonic. It's just going to be cheaper because of more scale and vertical integration (somewhat, Panasonic still gets plenty of control and a cut) like AnOutsider predicted.

The disruptive battery tech (like lithium air and lithium sulfur) is not here yet. And Tesla haven't really indicated they will be doing that battery research on their own (but rather with partners).

MacroP · May 30, 2014

vigo said:
FUNNY how WRONG you were back at the end of 2012 when you posted the below comment. Now it is 2014 and "dirsuptive battery tech" is EXACTLY what Tesla is trying to do - admitted by their own staff! It's like you're so closed-minded you could not see that this is one thing Tesla would be involved with. Why would they NOT explore/invest in new, disruptive battery tech, since they are building cars powered by batteries?

Now they plan to disrupt not only "car batteries," but the overall electric grid as well - and I am SO HAPPY, because the entrenched 'government-bed-partners-Electric-Companies' like TVA (Tennessee Valley Authority - the actual electricity generator/producer for a large part of the Southeast US) NEED COMPETITION! Right now, they chage "whatever they feel like" and raise rates "whenver they feel like it."

Hey vigo what is with all this shouting in uppercase trying to point out someone was incorrect (they were actually spot on) = very rude. Perhaps you should take a hike to somewhere else on the interwebs and learn some manners. This is not facebook or twitter.

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Will Tesla Introduce Distruptive battery technology with BlueStar/NextGen?

aronth5

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Zythryn

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AnOutsider

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ItsNotAboutTheMoney

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stopcrazypp

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vigo

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AnOutsider

S532 # XS27

stopcrazypp

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MacroP

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