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Forward Observing

Recently I confessed to having lived through a mutiny. That is the ultimate sucking chest wound ~ mutiny. FYI ~ it was a gD *sugar* storm from above and below. Please excuse me, I am old.

Think of yourself with the newest technology (GPS, rockets, computers, WiFi, secure digital, vehicles etc) under your command and you are the first one on the block. Think of the fact that your battery (company, troop, level command) had more fire power than 3x of your boss ~ and you are just a captain. Think of the brass above you not just thinking about plucking physical parts (equipment) off you, but doing it for their own gratification. Think of your peers cutting off your funding and funding their own projects without superiors knowing where the money was going. Think of your key subordinates as having absolutely no field experience in their leadership roles ~ none. FYI ~ just a thumb nail sketch.

So no, I do not think like you or Elon.

Recently I listened to some slug moaning about how expensive things are today as opposed to way back when. I finally interjected for this fool that when I enlisted back on 2May1969, I was paid about $135 (plus or minus) a month to go die. The new response now days is yeah but they fed you, clothed you and provided you with a place to sleep (yeah, fart sack you carry with you on the road) ~ not “thank you for your service.” Sadly that was one of my speechless moments ~ today my response will be “thank your gD god I did not die for you.”

This experience took forty years of work on, on my part to re-tool my brain. Still not where I want it and no influence.

I have voted, and happy with my decision. Still wondering about the company.

FYI ~ we all knew there would be competition; it just was never defined; true creativity is being able to adjust to the ever changing battlefield. Those that are not nimble; well they are your legacy people, cars, etc.

Cheers
 
The Tesla Master Plan version 1,2 & 3 authored by Elon were all about transitioning the world to sustainable transport by rolling out massive quatities of EVs to replace the worlds ICE fleet, rolling out massive battery cell output to enable vast amounts of stationary storage to complement renewable energy generation to replace fossil fuel generation.

I’m all for robotaxis and Optimus, but if they are now the main focus of the company, with EVs & Energy now “side quests” that is a major shift in the master plan for the company, and one should expect the company to be evaluated very differently until the huge new bets are proven out or not.
I disagree. Not on the re-eval part, but on the change in the mission.

This takes me back the Intel days of distinguishing between Objectives and Key Results (IMBO management). The Key Results supported the Objective, but they never defined it and often were changed to meet the original objective.

For Tesla, sustainability is a Primary Objective. Increasing BEV sales is a Key Result. Increasing Battery Utilization is also a major Key Result - could argue the biggest Limiting Factor. (Not production, but utilization.) Robotaxi is just a "vehicle" to get the main Objective (or Mission).
 
Wonder what this means for “legacy” hw3 S/X without camera 🤔


The release notes tell you what it means- same as it means for the other cars when you don't meet any of the hands-free conditions (ie wearing sunglassses, a hat, it's dark, etc).- torque sensor in wheel remains as the primary driver monitoring feature so long as a driver is required (ie so long as it's L2)
 
I have the proxy statements for a couple old days now and I don’t know what to do.
On the one hand I feel it is not fair to come back on what has been agreed upon.

On the other hand I feel that Elon doesn’t care about us - the Twitter fiasco still stings.
Also the ever increasing outlandish projection regarding robots, FSD, AI, number of giga factories etc. more often than not fail to come to fruition especially in the timeframe mentioned by Elon. It is just getting harder to take him seriously. Yes, he has done some amazing things in the past, but the real revolutionary things like landing rockets on barges in the middle of the ocean; that has been a while already.

I like FSD but I don’t see robotaxis happening any time soon and I also doubt the market projections for that.
Do I think Elon's other ventures took time away from his oversight of Tesla? Hard to believe they didn't (it's just math). Do I think Tesla has his full attention now? Yep. Key question: "Do I think Tesla's competitors in the vehicle space - GM, Ford, VW, Toyota, etc. - would be happy or sad to see him leave Tesla?" - the answer: I think they would be HAPPY to see him leave (and indeed, would breathe a sigh of relief). As such, I voted for him to keep the compensation package - an admittedly obscene amount, but one we all agreed to do. Deal's a deal and like Tina said.: "Bust a deal, face the wheel". Welcome to the Thunderdome.
 
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Where are they at with the development? I looked and looks like they don't have a flying prototype yet.
"We have prototype one and two being assembled in our factory. 6 passengers plus a pilot. To get the prototype off the ground it still needs a bunch of motors and our batteries. First assembly trail of the full pack was completed last week. There a few bugs to fix, but nothing major.

We need a lot of cells though to fly it. 2160 pouches"
 
If I recall correctly Elon initially just wanted to demonstrate to the Automobile Industry (OEM) that electric cars can be equivalent or better than ICE cars and can be manufactured at similar costs. But the OEMs declined, except the ones in China. Now that the Chinese auto industry is becoming world dominant in electric vehicles there is no need for Tesla to continue on that mission. Elon has achieved that goal.
Although I wish Tesla would make the $25,000 car - but it looks like there are already plenty of Chinese alternatives available - except in the USA.
This is an important point. In the rapidly evolving vehicle markets globally it's obvious but not inevitable that Chinese companies will continue to be dominant in BEV's. In most markets where Tesla operates they're very much holding their competitiveness despite histrionics from those who see Chinese 'goblins' and those who watch second-by-second sales figures.

It is also true that Tesla innovations in Gigacasting, for example, were adopted only by Chinese companies. Similarly almost no non-Chinese OEM has devoted really serious devotion to complete transformation. Parts of VAG, notably Porsche, have done stellar progress. Part of Tata, most obviously Jaguar has done that as is now Land Rover. In India both Tata and Mahindra are doing that and even Stellantis is finally trying to adopt Chinese solutions. Further in urban mobility there is widespread adoption of clever and practical solutions nearly worldwide. So..

It's very easy to simplify all this. Factually, nearly all of that developed as a result of Tesla, thus advancing the Tesla vision. No problem, except, Tesla, quite clearly in Elon's view, has stagnated and become a trifle complacent. One thing we also should know about Elon Musk is that he never, ever has been complacent nor has he been able to tolerate complacency.

Here we have endless repetitious pages arguing over each specific tactic and frequently demonizing those who deign to disagree with a given post. Ridiculous!

Rather than endless and pointless petition we might actually try to understand what has happened. Tesla has succeeded in making BEV's a practical reality.

Now comes more disruption. Exactly how is the big unanswered question. Nobody really has answers, so we have returned to 2008 logically, with ideas and clear determination form Elon and many others. He and everyone in the Tesla leadership told us 2024 was the year of transition; and so it is!

Note: nothing at all was said or implied about share prices. Clues there have been in abundance. Clue: FSD implications are huge; humanoid robotics are huge; unknown implications of everything AI (in multiple permutations) are huge. Conventional automotive, Tesla-style is to remain huge; energy storage is and remains rapidly growing, as is TE-based energy management and delivery, including Superchargers..

Al of that is not simple nor is it simplistic. Elon may seem simplistic at times because he deeply focuses on a given topic to exclusion of all others, then moves on. People who fail to understand that take the individual statements of dominance in a given topic as a 'bet-the-company' play. It never is that, nor in fact has it been since Model S and Model 3, the only two genuine make-or-break moments.

2025 is the year when everyone will know whether all of this disarray will end out well. Not before!

[as usual, these are my opinions, largely stated as fact because i think them to be factual. I think but do not know these things]
 
[...] the new supposedly environmentally conscious President of the United States ignores you and your company's massive accomplishments just to solicit a few Union votes?
until Delaware happened I didn't see this as significant, the cash flow of incentive money for batteries and EV to Tesla did not look like ignoring to me. But this must be the single most biggest threat against America's number one innovator Tesla and Elon Musk.
 
Joe Tegtmeyer posts that Elon commented on a photo of Austin Gigafactory

"After Jeff Roberts posted these images of Giga Texas yesterday, @elonmusk commented that the center section of the new extension will be a water cooled supercomputer cluster. This is related to the permits & cooling structural platform under construction we have discussed on previous videos."

Elon said "The rear portion of the factory extension (the part furthest away from the glass) will be a super dense, water-cooled supercomputer cluster".

For those who have been following the Austin southern extension buildout, this defines the purpose of a cooling tower structure that recently started construction adjacent to the main building. It also might explain the 3 strange concrete vaults that were constructed and then burried under the main floor of the southern extension.

Many things are happening within Tesla that are not revealed or explained until Tesla is ready to do so. This board, well-intentioned as it may be, is an advanced exercise in dart-throwing while blindfolded. Happy to be here nevertheless, I really got no where else to go (very much a callout to Richard Gere in 'An Officer and a Gentleman'.

I'd post the link, but I don't remember if that's allowed or not.
 
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At 74, I still love to ride, albeit a bit slower and more cautiously than I did in those heady days of youth. I moved to where I live now due primarily to the wonderful motorcycle roads in the area. Been riding for the better part of 60 years, and I’ll continue as long as I am able.

As far as “no armor”, cautious riders have an acronym: ATTGAT. All The Gear All The Time. Helmet, armored jacket and pants*, boots and gloves. All The Time. Such gear has saved me from serious injury more than once.


As an aside, I feel far more vulnerable on a bicycle than I do on one of my motorcycles.

*I admittedly sometimes forgo the riding pants, and just go with jeans when riding locally. My bad.
That's fine with me, it's your choice and you recognize it's dangerous.
 
I wouldn't necessarily say it's for self-enrichment. I don't know his reasons for doing what he's doing. Rather, it is another example of his actions not matching his words. Now that he has already been forced to acquire Twitter after first trying to get out of the deal, his words are as if he never tried to get out of the deal in the first place. Now he's all about how free speech was vitally important and that's why it was important to buy Twitter. But if that was the case, why did he try to avoid buying it?

How does that action not match his words? Just because he thought it was also worth doing, doesn't imply that he was abandoning his other endeavors.


Sure, I am not arguing that he is in it for the money (although I do believe he has stated that he wants to use money from his ownership stake in Tesla to go to Mars). But again, we're back to words not matching actions. Now the alleged importance of him owning at least 25% of the shares. That apparently was not much of an issue when he dumped Tesla stock on the market to acquire Twitter. He had no problems selling down and losing more control of the company. But suddenly it was vitally important and he needed at least 25% "or else".

Again, he believed the compensation plan would allow for some resources that didn't materialize. Intent matters... even if reality doesn't always play along.


Right... so can you help me make sense of his actions that, at least to me, do not match his words, as in the two examples above?

Claiming that buying Twitter is so important that even Tesla has to take a back seat, and yet he tried to get out of the deal.

Claiming that at least owning at least 25% is vitally important for him to trust the company with AI and robotics, and yet he had not problem dumping a significant portion of his ownershin in Tesla on the market in order to buy Twitter.

I can't make sense of it. He claims that two things that are mutually exclusive are so important most other things have to take a back seat, and yet in practice his actions seem to indicate that they are not that important after all.

Do you know that he didn't believe Tesla was at a point where he could re-apportion some of his time? Do you know he didn't believe that he could make both situations work financially? How are those things categorically mutually exclusive?

If you don't have the answers to those questions, I don't really think you can make the assertion that his actions are at odds with his words.
 
An important consideration is if Elon believed the statements were true when he made them.

An another important consideration is if those targets are eventually hit, even though that is several years after the originally predicted dates.

IMO any pivot that happened, was due to Elon now seeing Robotaxis and Optimus as the biggest opportunities, and was also due in part to the current macro environment.

Taking the biggest or best opportunities first makes a lot of sense, it helps provide the funds needed to take other opportunities.

We have never heard that the 25K car or 20 Million cars per year are completely off the table. They are probably still aspirational targets, just lower priority and delayed.

Agreed.

I also believe that one of the bigger failures of many CEO's/management teams is the failure to react to changing conditions. Plowing ahead with your plans or approach from 2 years ago regardless of a change in landscape is a mistake too many companies make.

Tactical plans should be adjusted constantly. Strategic plans revaluated and adjusted regularly. Overall mission is typically static, but it too is not immutable.

Where many managers have a hard time with changing direction and/or abandoning work in progress... and many outsiders see it as "flailing", if done correctly it's critical to not becoming another Xerox or Kodak.