Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Cal1]

I doubt it. Musk embellishes everything so much that he couldn’t hold back if there was anything else.

 

[Big Time]

What is the current status of FSD in China?
We need energy, FSD, & Optimus to start earning buku bucks.

 

[alhounos]

Interesting anecdote… just for fun, a few weeks ago I requested an offer from Carvana to buy my ‘23 Model 3 RWD, aka the fleet/rental car that flooded the market recently.
Carvana offered $24k then. They just emailed me upping the offer to $26,400

Hopefully this means the Hertz dump is over and demand is still strong.

 

[Puma2020]

Just curious what this esteemed group thinks about the story that Stellantis (and eventually others) is going to stop giving free money to Tesla.

Stellantis says new strategy will eliminate buying emission credits from Tesla

Stellantis does not want to buy regulatory emissions credits from Tesla any longer.

www.teslarati.com

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Interesting anecdote… just for fun, a few weeks ago I requested an offer from Carvana to buy my ‘23 Model 3 RWD, aka the fleet/rental car that flooded the market recently.
Carvana offered $24k then. They just emailed me upping the offer to $26,400

Hopefully this means the Hertz dump is over and demand is still strong.

Or it's an automated system that start with low-balling.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

What is the current status of FSD in China?
We need energy, FSD, & Optimus to start earning buku bucks.

4680 advances are the most immediate improvement required.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Yes! And that will be years away. Please let's keep the FSD discussion on it's own threads. Day after day we post here about FSD/robotaxi -jabbering about SAAS billing and such- as if will be ready next week. Truth is it's going to be "just arond the corner" for a very, very long time yet, just like Nuclear fusion and a cure for paralysis.

Now it's just a flawed toy I like to play with; when you can take a nap for hundreds of miles with zero disengagements, THEN it will boost TSLA and how we sell it will matter, not sooner.

Feel free to fixate on pennies in the path of the Tesla steamroller, but some of us have our eyes firmly on the PARADE of steamrollers which will pave TSLA streets with gold: It starts with FSD and battery cells. Reminder: Elon focused on this path at the 2019 AGM (June 11)

Elon at 2019 AGM: "If I were an outside investor, I would really focus on 2 things.: (1:00:39)

1. what is the timeline to Full Self Driving, and
2. what is your plan to increase bty cell production and lower cost per KWh?

Elon summarizes "Its basically battery cells and full self driving. Those are the 2 strategic things that are of most importance." Below is video from the 2019 AGM cued to Elon's comments. BTW, stay tuned for comments from JB Straubel [now a Tesla Board of Directors member] and Drew Baglino [now Sr.VP] on Tesla FSD + Batteries - best ~10 min you'll ever invest, IMO:

Nearly 5 years later, we can see now that all these efforts are converging. The payoff is coming for those who understand this has been in the works for a long time, that it takes a long time, and that it will be worth the wait. Teslabot is a bonus product which I did see coming back in 2018 (I discussed this opportunity with @Carsonight on DISQUS back in Summer 2018 b4 I joined TMC). Teslabot alone can turn Tesla into a tidy $10T company (although Cern Basher estimates more like $34T). I love it when a plan comes together.

But what I didn't see coming back in 2018 was AGI. So, will TSLA shareholders benefit from this nascent technology? That remains to be seen, as it's not in Elon's 2018 roadmap. I think Tesla AGI ultimately depends upon retaining Elon as CEO, which starts w. the shares he has earned since 2018, then moving Tesla out of the reach of sticky Delaware fingers.

Otherwise, I think X.AI gets this AGI "upside to heaven", while TSLA remains grounded. Either way, Elon and company are headed to Mars. So the question becomes, 'Which future are you interested in: The Steamroller, or the Rocket?'

 

[UncaNed]

Does anyone have an idea why Tesla is building additional manufacturing outside Giga Austin - are they running out of space already?? What´s the concept?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1760750319548391913

Perhaps building closer to residential areas for employee's convenience?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Does anyone have an idea why Tesla is building additional manufacturing outside Giga Austin - are they running out of space already?? What´s the concept?

Based on the job postings on the Tesla.com website, its intended for battery materials handling near the railhead (incoming bulk materials will arrive this way). For more coverage, I recommend you follow Tesla Boomer Mama on X, she posted recently all the jobs listed for Hato, TX.

Cheers!

P.S. Hato is also the location of the railyard where Tesla car carriers unload the Semis from Giga Texas, for shipment via rail.

 

[SOULPEDL]

What is the current status of FSD in China?
We need energy, FSD, & Optimus to start earning buku bucks.

Electrified mentioned that China was fully approved legally and it was up to Tesla when to engage FSD. To what level of automation, IDK. V12 I assume, but I do like the idea of deploying L3 outside US first - the social reactions and take-rate from China would be refreshing.

I'm convinced that the market in North America is at arms length with FSD, and doubt the average person would believe anything other than more FUD. Sales here will require word of mouth demo test drives with friends and family, and without error or even a twitch. High level, it's a good approach to learn in US, deploy in another country for a fresh start socially.

There's about 2.4 M Tesla in China as far as I can count (after prompting Chat like 5 times, it didn't want to say). Seems like a pretty big number if most subscribe. For simple math, $1K annual subscription would be over $2B (TAM today). And what if they had a fire sale on purchasing it... last chance. $$$

Installs tapered off, and 95% in California still.

 

[jerry33]

Interesting anecdote… just for fun, a few weeks ago I requested an offer from Carvana to buy my ‘23 Model 3 RWD, aka the fleet/rental car that flooded the market recently.
Carvana offered $24k then. They just emailed me upping the offer to $26,400

Hopefully this means the Hertz dump is over and demand is still strong.

The Hertz dump was around 630 Teslas. They will remove the rest of them over time as they age. The 23,000 number the media posted was for all makes.

 

[jerry33]

Just curious what this esteemed group thinks about the story that Stellantis (and eventually others) is going to stop giving free money to Tesla.

Stellantis says new strategy will eliminate buying emission credits from Tesla

Stellantis does not want to buy regulatory emissions credits from Tesla any longer.

www.teslarati.com

Depends on what the "new strategy" is. One way is to stop selling ICE so the fines equal the credits paid. Another way is to just pay the fines without any volume change. A third way is to make enough BEVs to offset the credits. In any event, press releases are cheap.

 

[MP3Mike]

Bunch of clowns, hope all those media outlets that only click bait all the time go down the drain

And this was without the wheel covers

edit: and more, this is with AT tires, which EPA is 320 miles, so it beat EPA by 14 miles and the headline is completely wrong

View attachment 1021063

Did you see that they had to update their headline to say that it beat the rated range?

Update: Since publishing this article, we have verified that the Foundation Series Cybertruck on all-terrain tires is rated by Tesla as having 318 miles of range. Our original article was based on Tesla's publicly available range figure of 340 miles. The Cybertruck, therefore, actually exceeded its range estimates. We look forward to testing the 340-mile-rated Cybertruck on all-season tires with aero covers.

So, in their "real-world" testing it went 5% further than the Tesla published range for the Cybertruck with the all-terrain tires. (And that was without the aero wheel covers.)

 

[Artful Dodger]

Depends on what the "new strategy" is. One way is to stop selling ICE so the fines equal the credits paid. Another way is to just pay the fines without any volume change. A third way is to make enough BEVs to offset the credits. In any event, press releases are cheap.

A fourth way is to get the current U.S. Adminstration to suspend car(bon) regulations until after "the Tuesday next after the first Monday in November". We'll see if/when those regulations get reinstated.

 

[SmokyPeat]

Well shoot, I was hoping the blowout earnings from Nvidia would spark more of a sustained rally.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Well shoot, I was hoping the blowout earnings from Nvidia would spark more of a sustained rally.

It did/it will (this is just profit-taking from day traders). It's still parked smak on top of its Upper-BB that's what you'd expect after the euphoria is hauled in by MMs+hedgies.

My thumb-in-the-wind estimate is that NVDA goes to $1089 buy end-of-year (ask me why).



Cheers!

 

[Buckminster]

My thumb-in-the-wind estimate is that NVDA goes to $1089 buy end-of-year (ask me why).

Because Dojo service is announced, stopping it getting to $1500?

 

[2daMoon]

Based on the job postings on the Tesla.com website, its intended for battery materials handling near the railhead (incoming bulk materials will arrive this way). For more coverage, I recommend you follow Tesla Boomer Mama on X, she posted recently all the jobs listed for Hato, TX.

Cheers!

P.S. Hato is also the location of the railyard where Tesla car carriers unload the Semis from Giga Texas, for shipment via rail.

Don't be hato'n on Hutto, TX.

 

[hobbes]

Those look like completed buildings. They're probably leasing (or buying) buildings for things that don't require specialized construction so that they can get it going faster. That 1.5 year process of building a building is a long time to wait when you're ready to go now on something.

Makes sense.

Follow up question if I may: What is so pressing that they need to do this, at a time when according to the call we are between two waves (kind of in a lull on a long term growth scale)? Get everything ready so next wave of 20,000$ car and semi can ramp as quickly as possible when the time comes?

 

[Puma2020]

For all those that complain about Elon, think about whether the glass is half empty or half full.
We could have had Trevor Milton. Of course, none of us would have any money left if that had been the case.