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Guesses on whether the "Spring Update" will actually happen in the Spring?

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can you confirm no nags on fsd?
It has FSDS 12.3.6 and still has nags. I didn't notice any difference in nag behavior since my V11 trial. It still nags a lot around sunrise / sunset and on overcast days. It's a lot less frequent on sunny days or after dark.

I also found out that pressing the cruise control button does not work to clear the nags anymore. That was my preferred method to clear the "please apply torque to the steering wheel" nag since it had no chance of accidentally cancelling FSD or changing any settings. (That button never worked to clear the "PAY ATTENTION!" nag for me). Clicking the right scroll wheel sideways still works to clear both nags, though.
 
I got the update prompt last tuesday, on my 2023 MS Plaid. I checked the release notes and it was this spring update.

But, I needed the car so couldn't l update at the time. A few hours later I checked the app again and the update had vanished. Doh!

No sign of it after that..
My friend got the update prompt while he is out of town at work. He didn't update because being in Canada it will include his free FSD trial (he was on 2024.8.9) so he wanted to wait till he got home to maximize his time with the trial. But yesterday the option to update disappeared for him just like yourself.
I thought maybe Tesla had stopped sending 14.6 as they may have found some small bugs and were working on 14.7. The installs based on TeslaFi data had trickled off but then a resurgence of installs happened yesterday and continue today so it is strange why Tesla pulled the pending updates from you and him.
 
A plethora of the update happening and still not even one single 2021+ Refresh S or X HW3 in the US has gotten it.

We are now the forgotten owned 🥺
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