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WHEN do you think Tesla will be given the (nota) key to your Cyber(nota)truck? I'll go first.

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lafrisbee

lafrisbee

Active Member
Dec 13, 2019
3,068
11,843
Indialantic FL
#1
When I do the math My registration number has me as approximately the 250,000th person in line.
I live in Florida which has been a plus for those wanting to get previous models sooner than some parts of the country. But as Tesla Nationwide saturation becomes greater the value of geographic location becomes less of an determinant. So I am not going to put much weight on that.
I think from 01/12/2023 to 01/12/24 tesla will make about 70k cyber(nota)trucks. And the next year another 130k. And the last 50k will take me to 01/03/2025.
So 2 yrs and 5 months from now. for the 250,000th cyber(nota)truck to be delivered.
(We can come back and visit this thread as we get them)
 
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#2
Some cool guesses and charts ...
Via: https://www.cybertruckownersclub.co...mp-calculations-per-q3-info.9587/#post-189729

QnYTpXS.jpg


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#3
lafrisbee said:
I think from 01/12/2023 to 01/12/24 tesla will make about 70k cyber(nota)trucks. And the next year another 130k. And the last 50k will take me to 01/03/2025.
Click to expand...
I had to adjust my #'s given the year is almost over. I guess 300 by 1/12/24. Maybe 7k by the end of 2024.

It depends on how much money TSLA is willing/able to lose in 2024 as well as how quick production issues are resolved.
 
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#4
lafrisbee said:
When I do the math My registration number has me as approximately the 250,000th person in line.
I live in Florida which has been a plus for those wanting to get previous models sooner than some parts of the country. But as Tesla Nationwide saturation becomes greater the value of geographic location becomes less of an determinant. So I am not going to put much weight on that.
I think from 01/12/2023 to 01/12/24 tesla will make about 70k cyber(nota)trucks. And the next year another 130k. And the last 50k will take me to 01/03/2025.
So 2 yrs and 5 months from now. for the 250,000th cyber(nota)truck to be delivered.
(We can come back and visit this thread as we get them)
Click to expand...

Don't forget a VERY important thing... Not EVERYONE who plunked down their deposit is actually going to GET a CT... I would estimate that AT LEAST 10% are going to cancel out...

ALSO, it's going to depend on the particular MODEL you ordered... They are saying they are going to be building the Dual and Tri-motor versions first (so if you ordered a single or 4 motor(?) it will likely NOT be within the next year). I suspect dual-motors will be the biggest 'build out' for them though as they can either build 1500 DUAL-motors or only 1000 TRI-motors with the same amount of motors to use... This will let them get more out quickly... I would also 'assume' that it will be a faster build time because of that as well...

Lastly, NOBODY knows what the production numbers are going to be or how fast they will 'ramp up', but I suspect it's going to be a lot quicker than most of the nay-sayers are posting... So, if you are in the 250,000 range, you will likely get it next year... Because your 'real' spot will likely be closer to 150,000 with those factors... At least I HOPE so for you and others (like my wife!)
 
#5
DJAlan said:
Don't forget a VERY important thing... Not EVERYONE who plunked down their deposit is actually going to GET a CT... I would estimate that AT LEAST 10% are going to cancel out...

ALSO, it's going to depend on the particular MODEL you ordered... They are saying they are going to be building the Dual and Tri-motor versions first (so if you ordered a single or 4 motor(?) it will likely NOT be within the next year). I suspect dual-motors will be the biggest 'build out' for them though as they can either build 1500 DUAL-motors or only 1000 TRI-motors with the same amount of motors to use... This will let them get more out quickly... I would also 'assume' that it will be a faster build time because of that as well...

Lastly, NOBODY knows what the production numbers are going to be or how fast they will 'ramp up', but I suspect it's going to be a lot quicker than most of the nay-sayers are posting... So, if you are in the 250,000 range, you will likely get it next year... Because your 'real' spot will likely be closer to 150,000 with those factors... At least I HOPE so for you and others (like my wife!)
Click to expand...
So.... you are new here. Batteries are the limiting factor, not motors. Assuming they use the same size pack, Tesla will ship high margin (tri motors) first. If the tri motor uses a larger pack, they may ship duals first as they can ship more trucks with a given battery cell production rate. But there is zero chance that Tesla will produce 250,000 trucks in 2024. Elon said the current ramp target is 125,000 and they won't even hit that number of deliveries in 2024. I expect them to hit 2,500 trucks/week (125,000/year rate) in the middle of 2024. It will be a stretch for Tesla to have delivered 250,000 trucks total by the end of 2025. I've seen this movie 4 times now. The only one that was smooth was the Y and that was mechanically identical to the 3 - the only difference is/was sheet metal. The CT is an entirely new material, drivetrain (4WS), production method, etc. There will be issues. They will be solved and the truck will be awesome, but it's going to be slow.

That being said, you are correct that some number of reservations will not convert into orders once the final specs and pricing are known. How many drop out is anyone's guess.
 
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#7
lafrisbee said:
When I do the math My registration number has me as approximately the 250,000th person in line.
I live in Florida which has been a plus for those wanting to get previous models sooner than some parts of the country. But as Tesla Nationwide saturation becomes greater the value of geographic location becomes less of an determinant. So I am not going to put much weight on that.
I think from 01/12/2023 to 01/12/24 tesla will make about 70k cyber(nota)trucks. And the next year another 130k. And the last 50k will take me to 01/03/2025.
So 2 yrs and 5 months from now. for the 250,000th cyber(nota)truck to be delivered.
(We can come back and visit this thread as we get them)
Click to expand...
how did you calculate your place in line?
 
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