FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
I think there is no doubt he will. There was numerous references to much greater than expected demand from Elon lately, but market does not seem to take notice. I am sure he is aware of the fundamental rules for making presentations:
1. Tell them what you are about to tell them
2. Tell them what you wanted to tell them
3. Tell them what you just told them.
I believe he will drive this point about high demand home.
Recent statements from Elon on the subject:
1. Shareholders letter: US demand exceeding 15K, 30K worldwide (presumably in 2013)
2. Q1 call - at about 18 min Elon said:
"And I think there's a potential for next year, a fairly significant increase in volume as we really test the depth of the demand that's out there. I think it's probably quite a bit higher than what we had originally thought. But like I said, we don't want to just ramp volume and if it's not, how it's taken care of gross margin or have that service and just dumping products on the market. I don’t think that sort of the line is course of action. But we’ll still exceed I think what most people are expecting us to do. "
3. CNBC 5/31/2013 interview: Elon Musk: Self-Driving Cars, Hyperloops and a Cheaper Tesla
Elon indicated that current rate of NA reservations is exceeding 20K, mentioned that extrapolation means at least 50K demand worldwide; says "demand is going to exceed our production capability for several years to come"
My conclusions:
- Since they have indications of the sustainable 50K/year Model S demand Tesla is going to double production to two shifts, 500 cars a shift as soon as they will hit internal goal of 25% margin, probably by the end of summer.
- my interpretation of demand exceeding capability for several years is that Tesla expects to max-out 100K design capability of the Model S /X line and possibly are entertaining their options in this regard, including building the second line
- 50K cars/year (2014), assuming 25% margin without ZEV and GHG credits, $85K ASP, 20% effective tax rate, $500M R&D and SGA expenses, 40P/E, result in market capitalization = $18B, or 68% higher than current market capitalization of $10.7B
The question is what additional information regading the planned ram-up in production Elon will decide to share with the shareholders meeting crowd.
nice summary. I certainly hope he gives us some demand color. Stock is under pressure for sure. Last few days were ugly.
Regardless, I'm not selling anytime soon.