Tesla Investor's General Macroeconomic / Market Discussion

[SwTslaGrl]

So it is a tariff on China and Russia now?

And Japan. It's been on NHK Tokyo news a lot lately. Kobe Steel has had some quality issues with certified products lately too.

 

[replicant]

I get all the hand ringing about populism and protectionism. But putting your own people first and fair trade are what everyone, everywhere should want. It does not mean that you don't help others, but you make sure that helping others does not come at the expense of the safety of your own people. Open borders is not safe, but a strong immigration flow very good for most countries and definitely good for the US. We just can't keep signing multi trillion dollar over budget spending plans and hope to help everyone on the planet who is living under oppression. The best thing we can do to help others is to make sure our house doesn't decay and collapse under it's own massive weight first. This could be said for any country. We are getting closer to spending more on interest then any other expense in our government, including defense.

Did you watch any of the videos or read at least some pages of the aforementioned book?

 

[AZRI11]

I find your quote interesting and of value. However, and I am frequently wrong and or attacked because I am seeking the truth, or what I was raised to understand as the truth. My quagmire is that history repeats itself. The cycle of loss/grieving repeats itself.
Philosophically speaking, tribalism is like having constipation. While in the intestine the small balls (poo) are forced to snuggle up and move together to achieve the greater good ~ freedom. Once released into the wild, they never again become one ~ unless you consider poo left on the ground to over time to decompose or in the worst case, you step in it:-(
Our problem with tribes is that our morals and ethics no longer mesh; consider the twins where one lived in space for almost a year. His space genes, as they are simply called, no longer match those of his biological brother. We at this stage do not know how that will eventually play out in offspring or behavioral encounters.
Edit: my wife made me tie the thought of space genes back to poo balls. While we are in fact the same creation there are forces at play that separate us with unknown consequences. Hope that helps.
The economy is not the same as when I was born, 1949, and yet here we are. No one here can agree on what causes the stock to go up or down. No one can agree on EVs as the wave of the future, or not. No one can define democracy anymore. The rule of law has turned inward on itself. Somewhere in one of these threads I briefly talked about spiraling down.
While before globalization, we might as a country/nation have righted ourselves; however, media churns things up ~ especially on a global scale. There is no longer a cohesive core attempting to bind us. Color does not work, political parties do not work, walls do not work and clear cutting does not work. Civil wars clearly do not solve the issue. The Berlin Wall served nothing good. Thou shall not kill, does not work ~ period.
Hate/dehydration is the dominant force creating those balls of poo, and love is overwhelmed by hate. Quuestion is ~ do we give a damn enough to keep this herd of nerds from falling off the cliff or is the world really flat? After all, we are no better than herd animals:-( Yes, physically plus mental abilities make technological advances possible, but our social skills are still back in the caveman era:-(
Noteably, there are two writers here that both own a Tesla, or own stock, or are waiting on their Model 3. But once they get out of their car, or sell their stock, or drive away in their Model 3 they no longer see eye to eye:-(

Until we are at the edge of a cliff nothing will change. Despite world wars and climate change the cliff still has not appeared. Thermonuclear warfare is that cliff. Mankind's extinction is inivitable, yes but self extinction is avoidable. What does this have to do with macroeconomics? Elon plays the long game, survival of mankind. Mars needs humans. That's a very expensive.

 

[Reciprocity]

Did you watch any of the videos or read at least some pages of the aforementioned book?

No

 

[sundaymorning]

Seems like the Trump administration is making some progress on the trade talks. I like their long term outlook of where things could be headed if China opens up. Here’s the latest:

US unafraid of trade war, will proceed with China tariffs: Mnuchin

This article is better:

Mnuchin ‘Hopeful’ Truce Can Be Reached With China on Trade

Here’s an excerpt: The Treasury secretary said the two countries agree on reducing the deficit to some degree and are trying to “to see if we can reach an agreement as to what fair trade is for them to open up their markets, reduce their tariffs, stop forced technology transfer.”

 

[Fifield]

they tried calling me but could not reach me. I had $7.2 million margin loan and they told me the amount was too large for them to wait
so they liquidated well over half of my position at a loss. sadly, I had bought even more stock just before the ER
I ended up liquidating all of my Tesla stock at the open today for a total loss of $5.3 million since all my buying before ER had pushed up my cost basis steeply.
I only have less than 10% of my original capital left. I lost over 90% of my total capital. I am shell shocked and have never ever taken these kind of huge losses before
I will stay on the sidelines and hope for a pullback to $280 before I can gather the courage to pull the trigger on TSLA again
let this be a cautionary tale for all those who go on margin
I will never go on margin ever again and maybe stay out of the stock market for the rest of the year

Hopefully you have gathered the courage. You've taken the hit, time to get up and go at it again.

 

[mongo]

Switching to calls seem like a not bad idea, other than the possibility of it not recovering by expiration.. But really, is there a non end-of-world reason against DITM Jan 20s at this point, if one has a truck full of shares underwater? Or is that being sort sighted and risky?

 

[bdy0627]

Switching to calls seem like a not bad idea, other than the possibility of it not recovering by expiration.. But really, is there a non end-of-world reason against DITM Jan 20s at this point, if one has a truck full of shares underwater? Or is that being sort sighted and risky?

I think that is quite conservative at this point from a long-term perspective. As long as you are leveraging well below ATH, and especially well into a dip, IMO LEAPs are conservative, Puts are very risky, and shares are ultra conservative. Consider doing the conversion in several tranches in case the stock goes lower.

 

[dmvevguy]

@ValueAnalyst Good sir, sometime around Oct 2017, I was inquiring about a possible bear market / recession in the US and you mentioned possibly 2nd half 2018. Do you think it's started with the recent downturn the last few weeks along with this China tariff war?

 

[ValueAnalyst]

@ValueAnalyst Good sir, sometime around Oct 2017, I was inquiring about a possible bear market / recession in the US and you mentioned possibly 2nd half 2018. Do you think it's started with the recent downturn the last few weeks along with this China tariff war?

Thanks for your question. I see continued short-term macro/political related volatility, but not a start of recession just yet.

Items to watch are tariff war, Fed's response to short-term market volatility, oil prices (there's a possible surge brewing) and its effect on inflation numbers, which have been below Fed's target so far. Let's touch base again this summer.

 

[dmvevguy]

Thanks for your question. I see continued short-term macro/political related volatility, but not a start of recession just yet.

Items to watch are tariff war, Fed's response to short-term market volatility, oil prices (there's a possible surge brewing) and its effect on inflation numbers, which have been below Fed's target so far. Let's touch base again this summer.

Roger, thank you!

 

[SwTslaGrl]

Perhaps more market volatility is coming when links between WH, Cambridge Analytica and Fb data becomes clearer?

"Wylie also gave insight into how Cambridge Analytica was created in late 2013. The unit was set up by Robert Mercer, a U.S. billionaire; Steve Bannon, a former campaign manager for Trump’s 2016 campaign; and Alexander Nix, Cambridge Analytica’s chief executive,"
Cambridge Analytica helped ‘cheat’ Brexit vote and US election, claims whistleblower

 

[Curt Renz]

The current market roller coaster activity reminds me of the thrilling Bobs at Chicago’s long defunct Riverview Park. I rode it many joyous times in my youth. A marvelous computer simulation of the Bobs can be viewed below. DO NOT STAND UP.

 

[Intl Professor]

Many here have supported the tariff war or negotiating tiff with China, and there are signals from the administration itself, that this is not a war but the first round in a negotiating session. Based on the initial reaction of the markets, first down, then up, I certainly hope negotiations proceed apace in a mutually acceptable manner to denouement. It will remain for historians to debate whether the effort was worth the cost so debating it now is moot.

However, we have already seen strength in the Chinese position and its planning for retaliation in the U.S. agricultural component where, according to the New York Times, the Chinese "count on U.S. lobbying to do their work for them." Yesterday, for example, a pork farmer in the midwest was interviewed by PBS, complaining the Chinese market was just developing for him because demand for ears, feet, tails, and other products are unique there. Further, (not exact quote--failing memory) "last I checked, soy beans were down 40 cents today. That's a loss of 1.6-2 billion dollars for our suppliers, and fear of this kind of conflict has been hurting us for months."

There are also secondary effects for the Chinese as well. See this from today's Times:

If There’s a U.S.-China Trade War, China May Have Some ‘Unconventional Weapons’

Some of those 'unconventional' powers are also available to the U.S., of course, but there may be structural differences of greater import.

I'm working on a larger piece which I shall post on the Market Politics thread which addresses structural advantages China's more authoritarian regime has over ourselves in such conflict should it become an outright trade war. Teasers: Our diffused system of power makes it easy for China to turn US business against government, but the more centralized administration of Chinese politics is resistant to retaliation. Further, which regions of China have been targeted by the U.S. in order to change the political climate in China and thus the electoral dynamics for top leadership there? Which government is most popular with its own people? Which government is better able to plan long term? How quickly can any government change to meet unforeseen consequences?

 

[DragonWatch]

As a retired soldier, I have failed to follow General MacArthur's quote of: “Old soldiers never die they just fade away.” For some, they wish I would heed the call, I am sure.

Getting to my point, Tesla is in a very vulnerable position since a factory deal in China has yet to materialize. For me this is important, and I appreciate Tesla's holding out for full ownership and not giving up rights to propitiatory information. At least that is where I think we are currently. One of the "unconventional weapons" of the tariff wars, or possibly the whole reason for the conflict.

War, no matter its form takes no prisoners, only death and casualties ~ period. There are the blood and carnage left by conventional war (easy to see), and there are lost families and carnage following Great Depressions and Great Recessions (difficult to recognize).

My understanding, and I have been know to be wrong, but before President Lincoln the US government survived primarily off monies generated by tariffs. Following President Lincoln's passage of the Revenue Act of 1861 to help pay for the civil war; which was the earliest form of taxation of personal income.

Bottom line: tariffs could seriously impact Tesla.

 

[Reciprocity]

I hope your right as I’m hearing it’s a good jobs report.

The problem with good news lately is that it's seen as bad news. Higher wages, tightening job market.. great for people bad for stocks. There problem is that people are not taking into consideration that wages have been suppressed for so long and there is a lot of slack on the job market when you include those working age adults that left the market and will come back if jobs are there.

 

[sundaymorning]

1. This is how I’m seeing the trade war, I might be over simplifying things but I’ll give it a shot. The US exports $130B to China, while in 2016 (I couldn’t find 2017 data) the US exports $2.7 trillion to everyone else in the world. So exports to China is less than 5% (not very significant in the grand scheme of things).
   
   Now let’s look at China, exports for 2016 to the world was $2.04 trillion, of that amount $506 billion was exported to the US alone, or equaling about 25%. It’s very clear which country has more to lose if tariffs are imposed as American manufacturers start to move out from China in order to put itself in a more competitive situation. A trade war will obviously mean additional measures to cripple China if companies such as Apple and others begin moving out.
   
   If you think the IPhone is expensive now, think about adding another $250 on top of that, will this encourage companies to move it’s supply chains somewhere else in order to compete with Samsung, whose phones will be much less? If this happens, I’m ready to ditch my iPhone in order to support US trade. China might be blowing a lot of smoke right now, but I highly doubt they want to go down that rabbit hole against Trump, who in my view is precisely the erratic president that just *might do it. In the end, I think China will blink, they might have very strong manufacturing efficiencies already in place, but it has 1.4 billion people, which needs to be employed.

 

[MikeC]

1. This is how I’m seeing the trade war, I might be over simplifying things but I’ll give it a shot. The US exports $130B to China, while in 2016 (I couldn’t find 2017 data) the US exports $2.7 trillion to everyone else in the world. So exports to China is less than 5% (not very significant in the grand scheme of things).
   
   Now let’s look at China, exports for 2016 to the world was $2.04 trillion, of that amount $506 billion was exported to the US alone, or equaling about 25%. It’s very clear which country has more to lose if tariffs are imposed as American manufacturers start to move out from China in order to put itself in a more competitive situation. A trade war will obviously mean additional measures to cripple China if companies such as Apple and others begin moving out.
   
   If you think the IPhone is expensive now, think about adding another $250 on top of that, will this encourage companies to move it’s supply chains somewhere else in order to compete with Samsung, whose phones will be much less? If this happens, I’m ready to ditch my iPhone in order to support US trade. China might be blowing a lot of smoke right now, but I highly doubt they want to go down that rabbit hole against Trump, who in my view is precisely the erratic president that just *might do it. In the end, I think China will blink, they might have very strong manufacturing efficiencies already in place, but it has 1.4 billion people, which needs to be employed.

From another perspective, China probably can't back down without losing face, which would be considered much worse than having an unemployed populace who has no power to remove you from office, anyway. President-for-life Xi knows he just has to wait 2.5 years as prices rise at Walmart for Trump's base, Trump is voted out or impeached, and then he will be dealing with a new US administration.

 

[sundaymorning]

From another perspective, China probably can't back down without losing face, which would be considered much worse than having an unemployed populace who has no power to remove you from office, anyway. President-for-life Xi knows he just has to wait 2.5 years as prices rise at Walmart for Trump's base, Trump is voted out or impeached, and then he will be dealing with a new US administration.

I think this goes both ways, both sides can’t back down now without losing face. Afterall, this is an economic Cold War of Words (doubtful it’ll reach anything beyond words). But both sides will benefit if they talk things through. The ratcheting of words is only to escalate each other into the world stage so that real negotiation can start.

If there’s anything the Chinese value more than face, it’s money.

 

[Intl Professor]

A lot of supposed Asian face is really white face. Why did Johnson stick with the Vietnam War so long? "I'm not going to be the first president to lose a country to communism," or thereabouts, he once said. Historians say that was because the Republicans beat the heck out of Truman for losing China.