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Wiki SpaceX Manifest and Launch Cadence

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They have a need to reuse them that rapidly if they want to get Starlink up as fast as possible. There's no limit to need on fast turnaround. Instant turnaround would be best.

I'm not saying that it makes sense to do it with Falcon 9, for a variety of reasons, but the initial statement was that there was no need for faster turnaround. There certainly is, and that's why SpaceX is building Starship. The need is to get tons on orbit as fast as possible.

That linked article is a great example of how Elon's aspirations are often wildly mismatched to what actually plays out. I wonder if there will be another iteration of vehicles after Starship that will be even better suited to Elon's plans for a Mars colony.
I think we're just nitpicking over "need" and "makes sense." The need is connected to Mars colonization which is now on Starship's shoulders. I also think that Elon has realized that numbers are more important than speed. You definitely don't need a quick turnaround time when your vehicle is going to be taking many months, to over a year, to get to and from Mars. Certain aspects of Starship will need a quick turnaround time because of orbital refueling. Not that taking a week to refuel is that big a deal when your journey to Mars is four to six months.

Falcon 9 is limited by pad availability and booster recovery times. SpaceX does have a new West Coast pad coming on line soon to really max out the launch cadence. They will need another West Coast ASDS if they are going to launch from that one regularly. Pad SLC-40 has done the bulk of the launches this year. I wouldn't be surprised if SpaceX doesn't buy another pad in Florida this upcoming year. Then SpaceX can go for 150 launches for 2025.
 
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It's only up to Q3. This is a quarterly report.

Ah, it looks like the report is only Q3 (not up to Q3). Math makes more sense now--Ariane only had one launch in Q3, Rocket lab just two (and one failure), SpaceX has like 1200T YTD so 381T in Q3 hand-waves...

Kind of weird for Elon to screenshot that slide in the context of a 2023 victory lap, but...I guess weird is on brand.
 
Ah, it looks like the report is only Q3 (not up to Q3). Math makes more sense now--Ariane only had one launch in Q3, Rocket lab just two (and one failure), SpaceX has like 1200T YTD so 381T in Q3 hand-waves...

Kind of weird for Elon to screenshot that slide in the context of a 2023 victory lap, but...I guess weird is on brand.
Your bias is showing. Bryce just released their Q3 report and it looks basically the same as Q1 and Q2 with about 80% upmass by SpaceX, which is what Elon referenced. He didn't say anything about a kilogram mass target nor a victory lap.

For quick math, if the non-SpaceX adds up to less than 1/4 of SpaceX, SpaceX is over 80% of the total.
Long math:
Q1: 80.3% of 290,266
Q2: 78.9% of 271,467
Q3: 83.7% of 455,763
YTD: 81.4% of 1,017,496
Here are the 2023 reports so far:

SmartSelect_20231207_053252_Firefox.jpgSmartSelect_20231207_053304_Firefox.jpgSmartSelect_20231207_053319_Firefox.jpg
 
Latest update:

Falcon 9 Standard Boosters
B1058.18
B1060.17
B1061.17 Vandenberg booster
B1062.17
B1063.15 Vandenberg booster
B1067.15
B1069.11
B1071.13 Vandenberg Booster
B1072.0 New - Being held for Cygnus launch in Jan '24
B1073.11
B1075.7 Vandenberg booster
B1076.9
B1077.9
B1078.6
B1080.4
B1081.2
B1082.0 Vandenberg booster
B1083.0

Falcon Heavy Exclusive Cores and Boosters
B1064.4 Side - USSF-52 and Europa Clipper (Expended)
B1065.4 Side - USSF-52 and Europa Clipper (Expended)
B1084.0 Core - USSF-52

Statistics
280 Falcon 9 launches
8 Falcon heavy launches
260 Consecutive successful launches (Since Amos-6 pad failure)
253 Successful landings
179 Consecutive successful landings since last failure (Starlink Group 1-19)
219 Booster reuses (F9 & FH)
Better than 93% launches with booster reuse for the last 3 years.
 
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Latest update:

Falcon 9 Standard Boosters
B1060.17
B1061.18 Vandenberg booster
B1062.17
B1063.15 Vandenberg booster
B1067.16
B1069.12
B1071.13 Vandenberg Booster
B1072.0 Has been held for Cygnus launch in Jan 29th
B1073.12
B1075.8 Vandenberg booster
B1076.10
B1077.9
B1078.6
B1080.4
B1081.3
B1082.1 Vandenberg booster
B1083.0

Falcon Heavy Exclusive Cores and Boosters
B1064.5 Side - GOES-U, Europa Clipper (Expended)
B1065.5 Side - GOES-U, Europa Clipper (Expended)

Statistics
289 Falcon 9 launches
9 Falcon heavy launches
271 Consecutive successful Falcon launches (Since Amos-6 pad failure)
263 Successful booster landings
190 Consecutive successful landings since last failure (Starlink Group 1-19)
235 Booster reuses (F9 & FH)
302+ Fairing reuses
Number of Humans to orbit: 42
 
Last edited:
  • Informative
Reactions: scaesare
Latest update:

Falcon 9 Standard Boosters
B1060.18
B1061.18 Vandenberg booster
B1062.18
B1063.16 Vandenberg booster
B1067.16
B1069.12
B1071.14 Vandenberg Booster
B1073.12
B1075.9 Vandenberg booster
B1076.10
B1077.10
B1078.7
B1080.5
B1081.4
B1082.2 Vandenberg booster
B1083.0 - Crew 8

Falcon Heavy Exclusive Cores and Boosters
B1064.5 Side - Europa Clipper (Expended)
B1065.5 Side - Europa Clipper (Expended)
B1072.0 Side - GOES-U
B1086.0 Side - GOES-U
B1087.0 Core

Statistics
300 Falcon 9 launches
9 Falcon heavy launches
282 Consecutive successful Falcon launches (Since Amos-6 pad failure)
274 Successful booster landings
201 Consecutive successful landings since last failure (Starlink Group 1-19)
246 Booster reuses (F9 & FH)
324+ Fairing reuses
Number of Humans to orbit: 46
 
Last edited:
Latest update:

Falcon 9 Standard Boosters
B1060.19
B1061.19 Vandenberg booster
B1062.19
B1063.17 Vandenberg booster
B1067.17
B1069.13
B1071.14 Vandenberg Booster
B1073.13
B1075.10 Vandenberg booster
B1076.11
B1077.11
B1078.8
B1080.6
B1081.5
B1082.2 Vandenberg booster
B1083.1

Falcon Heavy Exclusive Cores and Boosters
B1064.5 Side - Europa Clipper (Expended)
B1065.5 Side - Europa Clipper (Expended)
B1072.0 Side - GOES-U
B1086.0 Side - GOES-U
B1087.0 Core - GOES-U

Statistics
313 Falcon 9 launches
9 Falcon heavy launches
294 Consecutive successful Falcon launches (Since Amos-6 pad failure)
288 Successful booster landings
214 Consecutive successful landings since last failure (Starlink Group 1-19)
258 Booster reuses (F9 & FH)
338+ Fairing reuses
Number of Humans to orbit: 60
 
  • Informative
Reactions: scaesare
Latest update:

Falcon 9 Standard Boosters
B1060.19
B1061.19 Vandenberg booster
B1062.20
B1063.17 Vandenberg booster
B1067.18
B1069.14
B1071.15 Vandenberg Booster
B1073.14
B1075.10 Vandenberg booster
B1076.12
B1077.11
B1078.8
B1080.6
B1081.6
B1082.3 Vandenberg booster
B1083.2

Falcon Heavy Exclusive Cores and Boosters
B1064.5 Side - Europa Clipper (Expended)
B1065.5 Side - Europa Clipper (Expended)
B1072.0 Side - GOES-U
B1086.0 Side - GOES-U
B1087.0 Core - GOES-U - June '24
B1090.0 Core - Europa Clipper - October '24

Statistics
317 Falcon 9 launches
9 Falcon heavy launches
303 Consecutive successful Falcon launches (Since Amos-6 pad failure)
297 Successful booster landings
223 Consecutive successful landings since last failure (Starlink Group 1-19)
267 Booster reuses (F9 & FH)
356+ Fairing reuses
Number of Humans to orbit: 60
 
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Reactions: scaesare