Q3 2015 Prediction Competition (with Poll)

[hershey101]

Official number 11,580

Damn you beat me to it!

- - - Updated - - -

I love that everyone is completely ignoring guidance of 11,500 and throwing out numbers above 12K! I'm going with 11,564.

Ha! I was off by 16 cars!

 

[SBenson]

Ha! I was off by 16 cars!

Goodwork hershey101!!

 

[thx1139]

So Tesla expects to deliver just under 17K to just under 19K the next 3 months. What was the number last year Qtr4? What will be the split between S and X?

 

[hobbes]

So our prediction was 12,093, the actual number 11580.
Not as good an estimate as last quarter, but still only 4% off.

Q2 Shareholder Letter[/B]]
In Q3, we expect to produce just over 12,000 vehicles, representing a more than 60% increase from a year ago, and deliver approximately the same number of vehicles as in Q2, despite having one week of planned shutdown in Q3. This includes asmall number of Model X deliveries.

Q1 had 10,045
Q2 had 11,532

So they hit guidance exactly, and that without an end-of quarter rush as mentioned by Musk like half a year ago or so. Taking into account some people waiting for the X reveal to decide between the two (and Elon being quoted that there has been an uptick even in S reservations since), and the construction of the new line, I can live with that.

 

[hobbes]

And the winner is...

Left out one prediction that didn´t seem serious and changed one given as a range to its center.

 

[ZachShahan]

And the winner is...

View attachment 96455

Left out one prediction that didn´t seem serious and changed one given as a range to its center.

Hey, you left mine out. Maybe that's a good thing...

 

[hobbes]

I was going to say 1201, so now saying 1203

Left out one prediction that didn´t seem serious and changed one given as a range to its center.

Sorry if I got your wrong, but as you were off guidance by an order of magnitude...

 

[Quant]

Sorry if I got your wrong, but as you were off guidance by an order of magnitude...

zachshahan said : ' maybe that's a good thing ' : You are one funny dude, Zachshahan! LOL