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Prediction: Coal has fallen. Nuclear is next then Oil.
- Thread starter nwdiver
- Start date
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- Energy Environment Policy
Raffy.Roma
Rome (Italy)
For the time being the situation is still apparently under control.
But Dr. Gavin Schmidt, Director of NASA GISS and maximum Climate Expert of the USA, said that if in August the Anomaly of the Global Temperature Deviation will not stabilize we will be in UNCHARTED TERRITORY.
Then we will see what will happen. IMO if the situation will get out of control there will be a request at world level to take UNPRECEDENTED ACTIONS.
mspohr
Well-Known Member
This is the problem
www.theguardian.com
‘Grownup’ leaders are pushing us towards catastrophe, says former US climate chief
Paris agreement negotiator Todd Stern attacks premiers who say that decarbonisation programmes are unrealistic and should be slowed down
www.theguardian.com
Raffy.Roma
Rome (Italy)
Replied to you in the Climate Change/Global Warming Discussion.This is the problem
‘Grownup’ leaders are pushing us towards catastrophe, says former US climate chief
Paris agreement negotiator Todd Stern attacks premiers who say that decarbonisation programmes are unrealistic and should be slowed down
Demand – Coal 2023 – Analysis - IEA
Coal 2023 - Analysis and key findings. A report by the International Energy Agency.www.iea.org
According to this article by IEA (International Energy Agency) it looks like till 2023 the coal demand increased with a new trend starting from this year 2024.
Global coal demand is expected to peak in 2023 and decrease thereafter
"For our forecast period until 2026 we expect to see a trend emerging of declining worldwide coal demand, starting in 2024."
Here's the IEA's consumption graph over the same time period (even though 2023 was an estimate and thus below the actual consumption): Global coal consumption, 2000-2025 – Charts – Data & Statistics - IEA
Notice that unlike the capacity chart, consumption did NOT double, and is only barely above 2014. Note also that coal is "consumed" in the industrial production of steel, which is a completely different industry than what's tracked by the Coal Power Capacity.
For many years, China has been planning to add many GW of solar and wind and at the same time add coal "capacity" so that there is never a chance of intermittent generating shortfall causing rolling blackouts. The intent is to grow the allowable peak demand, thereby allowing the economy to grow, while at the same time dramatically increasing the percentage of the total energy consumed being generated by renewables.
Raffy.Roma
Rome (Italy)
Yes China increased renewables but, as I said above, is also responsible of two thirds of the increase of coal usage since 2015. This trend is not feasible anymore now that we have a Current 365-day Global Temperature Deviation of 1.59°C and we have already overtaken the threshold of 1.5°C set by the Agreement of Paris for the Global Temperature Deviation.
Daytime Solar Power Glut in California, Rooftop Sales Plunge 90 Percent
Demand for rooftop solar systems dries up in California after subsidies drop. 100 contractors go out of business. Fancy that.
mishtalk.com
"if you have to subsidize something, it is not economically feasible in the first place; it just looks like it."
I think he means agriculture and fossil fuels that we had been and continue to subsidize. LOL
Raffy.Roma
Rome (Italy)
GLOBAL COAL POWER GREW IN 2023 BY 2%
China drove 2/3 of the increase slowing world coal retirements.
This way World Powers will not decline emissions.
Yes it looks like China is main responsible for Global coal power increase. This is a matter to be discussed with China at COP29 hoping that China and also India and Asean Countries will be available to cohoperate.
I will say it again, Coal Capacity is not the same thing as Coal Consumption or Coal Emissions.
I am not saying that China is doing everything that they should, but we need to be clear about what the presented figures actually mean.
I am not saying that China is doing everything that they should, but we need to be clear about what the presented figures actually mean.
Raffy.Roma
Rome (Italy)
Think that my tweet referred to coal consumption. Sorry but it looks like China is main responsible for coal consumption increase. This is not feasible in a world where the Global 365-day Temperature Deviation is 1.59°C.
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Your tweet claims coal consumption, but the source it used cites capacity. At this point, it's all just noise, because it's merely shouting that there's a problem, but doesn't do anything about solving the problem. China produced 80% of the solar panels used by the rest of the world, they had to power those factories some how.
Raffy.Roma
Rome (Italy)
It's true. The 2% rise refers to capacity. But the graph refers to coal consumption. And China leads the consumption not only in 2023 but also in the other years (brown colored area). The additions refers to coal power production and consumption. That's main thing.
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Read the graph carefully. It doesn't show what you're claiming. Simple analytical question, how can you have negative consumption?
Raffy.Roma
Rome (Italy)
The graph doesn't represent the absolute coal consumption but the incremental coal consumption, that is to say the coal added and retired.
Negative consumption is retired coal consumption.
Wouldn't the electricity used for panel pruduction (541 gigawatts) be roughly equivalent to .05% of China's overall electricity use?
They are getting a pass on 2% increase because of that .05% used for panel production?
They are getting a pass on 2% increase because of that .05% used for panel production?
Raffy.Roma
Rome (Italy)
Actually the increase (not the whole amount the graph is incremental) Coal power consumption for China in 2023 is about 50 GW.
The 2% is relative to the increased Global Capacity which is another thing.
mspohr
Well-Known Member
WTF is "retired coal consumption"?!?! Did you throw up the coal after consuming it?!?
Edit: You can only retire capacity, and that's the whole point. Trying to equate that with consumption is sophistry.
Raffy.Roma
Rome (Italy)
Retired coal consumption is the decreased amount of used coal with respect to previous year.
Edit: You can also use less coal than previous year and that's a negative increment in mathematical analysis.
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