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October 15th Deadline for Guaranteed Delivery

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If you live in California anywhere near Fremont you can probably order in December and still take delivery, if it's like last quarter they will divert deliveries to close by the factory to maximize revenue. If you live in the Midwest or East Coast you should probably put your order in now if you want the full $7500 federal tax credit.
 
Tesla should start thinking about reimbursing customers the $3750 that they'll lose when Tesla fails to deliver the cars as promised. There is no way in hell Tesla is going to be able to uphold that promise after all the problems we customers have had over the past few months.

100% agree. How are they going to deliver every remaining US order in 2 1/2 months. I ordered in in June and it stated a 2-4 mo delivery. We are almost at 4 mo now. And there are many who ordered well before me that have not received any delivery info. I hope they do it, but it seems very unlikely. I'm still hoping I get my car by the end of the year.
 
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Oct 15th is 75 days out and should be plenty of lead time with their production ramp.

As a shareholder I am actually upset Tesla made the cut off so early without sufficient time to generate a pipeline.

I was more hoping for a Black Friday promotion:

What’s the benefit of ordering this Black Friday?

You get your car...

I hope the best explanation is they are already crushed. Puts a hole in the lack of demand theory.
 
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I noticed several blogs have already started publishing incorrect information, stating the tax credit goes away 10/15.

10/15 is merely the order deadline that Tesla "guarantees" the full tax credit will still be available since the car will be delivered by the end of the year. I'm sure there will be other cars ordered after 10/15 which will still be delivered before the end of the year and which will still receive the full tax credit. Also, plenty of inventory cars will be sold over the next two months and delivered before the end of the year. Those will still get the full tax credit as well.
 
So given this date. Let's talk about current Model 3 backlog. If we say they can produce 5000 Model 3's per week with roughly 11-12 weeks of production left (as someone said, near the end CA delivery would be a must). That's 55000-70000 cars produced roughly.

Given that, what is the current backlog of orders with $3500 deposits? Has to be less than 55000-70000. Since you have a few days left to make their deadline it has to be less than that. 45000-60000?

When do you think Tesla will not have enough demand for the current Long Range production rate? Do you think they will start placing stock at dealerships?
 
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So given this date. Let's talk about current Model 3 backlog. If we say they can produce 5000 Model 3's per week with roughly 11-12 weeks of production left (as someone said, near the end CA delivery would be a must). That's 55000-70000 cars produced roughly.

Given that, what is the current backlog of orders with $3500 deposits? Has to be less than 55000-70000. Since you have a few days left to make their deadline it has to be less than that. 45000-60000?

When do you think Tesla will not have enough demand for the current Long Range production rate? Do you think they will start placing stock at dealerships?

Tesla already made over 7000 Model 3s on last weeks production despite some stress relief at end of Q3.

Making inventory cars is not a problem. I believe many people have not decided to jump in and won’t decide until thanksgiving and beyond to take the plunge.

Q3 push was Tesla driven. Q4 push will be consumer driven.

I will bet any amount of money someone is going to be flying from out of state on Dec 31st to grab a Model 3 at Fremont and driving it home.
 
It's not a matter of producing the vehicles at the factory, I'm sure they'll keep ramping that up no problem. It's their ability to actually deliver the vehicles, especially outside of California. If they can fix their delivery issues they should be able to do it, but they have had major problems delivering vehicles to folks. I hope they can do it.
 
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Oct 15th is 75 days out and should be plenty of lead time with their production ramp.

As a shareholder I am actually upset Tesla made the cut off so early without sufficient time to generate a pipeline.

I was more hoping for a Black Friday promotion:

What’s the benefit of ordering this Black Friday?

You get your car...

I hope the best explanation is they are already crushed. Puts a hole in the lack of demand theory.

In which universe?
 
In which universe?

One where people have common sense and know what I meant?

Not sure why you gotta jump the gun and point out bull *sugar* when its clear the topic is deadline for full federal tax credit for custom orders from Tesla.

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Reactions: Trevor B