RayK
Active Member
I hope that's a very close friend of yours. Might you have meant, pucker?.... I got a slight butthole picker going. <snip>
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I hope that's a very close friend of yours. Might you have meant, pucker?.... I got a slight butthole picker going. <snip>
They don’t need to do that as they already have exactly the same sensors in all Model 3s. The HW3 computer is only relevant to FSD functionality, so throwing a HW3 computer into a car that won’t have the functionality of FSD serves no purpose. You’re mixing sensor data with neural net training. Tesla already can take the data from HW2.5 cars and use it to train the neural net.
That makes zero financial sense.
HW3 costs money, and yet more money to install and plumb the coolant hoses.
The only way return on HW3 investment (ROI) goes positive is if the customer pays for it, or the quality improvements in FSD from wider adoption are so great that significantly more people pay up for FSD. I see no direct correlation between incremental HW3 deployment and FSD take rate.
If you postulate that the pool of eager volunteers (aka suckers) willing to pay-up for FSD has already been drained, the only remain path for positive ROI is selling it a huge mark-up.
Aka - the status quo.
I don't believe that is entirely the case- especially going forward...
The 2.5 computer is incapable of processing all 8 cameras at full frame rate.... from greentheonly we saw it's sometimes only showing every 4th frame for example on some of the cameras. effectively running each 36 fps camera at 9fps....while others run full speed.... (this makes some sense at at MAX HW2.5 can only process 200 total frames per second... and all 8 cameras at full frame rate would be 282 fps (7x36 and the backup cam at 30). So it has to reduce framerate on at least some cameras due to hardware limits.
This isn't a big deal today because they can still tell either car hardware "Send me pictures of stop signs" for a single camera and unless you're going REALLY fast 9 fps is good enough.
And since that's the way the "old" NN data was being labeled and used for training- that worked ok.
But the fundamental re-write is based on stitching all 8 cameras together, full frame rate full time all the time, to create a 360 degree real-time picture and understanding.
Which HW2.5 can't do.
So for example if they want to collect a bunch of intersection data to really teach the car how to handle "which light is relevant to which lane" or "what happens at 4 way stops" in situations where more than 1 camera worth of frame is required- HW2.5 can't get them that data in the way they need it.
That said, the % of AP2+ cars that still "only" have HW2.x is going to become an increasingly small % of the fleet over time- I don't suspect there'd be enough value in upgrading them without getting FSD money to be worth bothering with data wise.
But if you enable the stoplight/stopsign thing and autosteer it won't let you set one in excess of the speed limit when on local roads.
So wouldn't it be safe to say that the percentage of folks who:
1. Didn't order FSD
2. Don't have HW3
Won't be used for mapping?
I believe there are more people "right now" that have FSD and HW3.
Easy workaround, just keep your foot on the accelerator. You can go whatever speed you want, lane keeping and stop light detection continue to work, just lift off when approaching an intersection you actually want to stop at. Also don't have to confirm green lights this way.
I agree with you, but.....I seriously doubt there's more people with FSD than without it.... I've never seen any serious take-rate estimate anywhere near 50% or above it.
I think the best/highest estimates have been in the 30-something percent range?
But they don't need you to have FSD for passive data collection.
As to HW2 vs HW3 cars-
Tough to say EXACTLY but we can estimate.
From end of Q3 2016 to end of Q1 2019 Tesla produced about 455,000 cars.
This is the very rough ballpark # of HW2.x cars built. Since the cutover HW dates aren't exactly at quarter break (and they made some 2.x cars after the official cut in date) this number is a decent guess but might be off a bit.
Since end of Q1 2019 Tesla had produced about 380,000 cars.
So if we assume at least 1/4 of HW2.x cars have been upgraded (which might be high- hard to know for sure)
Then we're roughly just a little bit more HW3 cars than HW2 cars out there today.
It might be a bit the other way still.
Obviously every quarter going forward though the HW3 percentage goes up.
End of Q2 2020 it should at least be a solid majority without any guessing needed.
(above also entirely removes any pre-HW2 cars from the totals for obvious reasons)
I agree with you, but.....
I'm thinking differently.
The Data Collection I'm talking about concerns folks that are actually using the features of 2020.12.6. Feature testing not mapping.
For example:
How many people disengage the features of 2020.12.6 when approaching a light?
How many people disengage the features of 2020.12.6 when the wipers turn on?
How many people disengage the features of 2020.12.6 at certain speeds?
How many people won't engage the features of 2020.12.6 at night?
How many people use the features of 2020.12.6 in rural vs. urban areas?
Currently that's FSD + HW3 only folks right?
That automatically eliminates anyone without FSD right?
That automatically eliminates anyone without HW3 right?
I believe there are more people "right now" that have FSD and HW3.
I seriously doubt there's more people with FSD than without it.... I've never seen any serious take-rate estimate anywhere near 50% or above it.
I think the best/highest estimates have been in the 30-something percent range?
Only FSD+HW3 PLUS explicitly turned on this new specific feature in settings too.
Looks like there is more to come concerning FSD.
Elon said this in the earnings call.
“Regarding Autopilot, we released a new software update for traffic lights and stop signs to early access users in March and to all US customers with full self-driving package just last week. Our cars will now automatically stop at each stop sign or traffic light until the driver gets a confirmation to proceed. I should say that the car is actually capable of much more than this, but we are only exposing functionality that we feel quite good about and where we feel it is probably a safety improvement,” Musk said.
Has anyone seen Tesla's report on the FSD take rate?
If there was one, I missed it.
I would have guessed 10-15% rate, which is my unofficial sampling result from folks at work who have TM3's.
I think Tesla should make it clearer to people when they are helping train the system in the early release.
...you realize he's saying "There's other stuff the car can do- but it'd be MORE dangerous than not having it if we released it now" right?
That's not a promise- it's a threat
I don’t disagree at all. I was replying to the poster who thought HW3 would improve the data collection for Tesla. We both know it doesn’t, because HW2.5 can collect the same data that HW3 can for training purposes. It just cannot process it on board. Even today, HW2.5 can detect the traffic lights and could allow a driver to tap the stalk to mark the data as an approach to an intersection and the conditions allow the car to proceed. It apparently just cannot do more than that sufficiently for Tesla to think it should allow HW2.5 to support full traffic light behavior. None of us know the details of that decision, though I suspect your point about processing is the main reason.I don't believe that is entirely the case- especially going forward...
The 2.5 computer is incapable of processing all 8 cameras at full frame rate.... from greentheonly we saw it's sometimes only showing every 4th frame for example on some of the cameras. effectively running each 36 fps camera at 9fps....while others run full speed.... (this makes some sense at at MAX HW2.5 can only process 200 total frames per second... and all 8 cameras at full frame rate would be 282 fps (7x36 and the backup cam at 30). So it has to reduce framerate on at least some cameras due to hardware limits.
This isn't a big deal today because they can still tell either car hardware "Send me pictures of stop signs" for a single camera and unless you're going REALLY fast 9 fps is good enough.