Discussion: Model 3 and Y price drop Jan 2023 / April 2023 / Oct 2023 and All other Pricing Speculation going forward

[mknmike]

If I’m willing to drive a long ways to take delivery and if I’m willing to wait until close to quarter/year end, is it likely that there will be discounts from Tesla to pad their end of quarter/year sales numbers?

Wanting to buy a MY 7 seater long range without missing out on the tax credit (sounds like 2024 models may not qualify, possibly due to sourcing more parts out of the USA?).

Any thoughts appreciated.

Thanks

I think MY will get $7500 next year too. The M3 ordering pages says M3 is likely to decrease to $3750 in 2024.

I’m not impressed with the inventory growth. I’ve been watching and it seems production must just be keeping up with orders. I would really like a discount too. Working out the home charger details on the meantime.

 

[mknmike]

I’m really not impressed with the Q4 inventory growth and starting to grow more concerned that it won’t grow, and for M3 and MY sales in Q4, Tesla will rely on the government incentives. I’d be interested in seeing charts of quantities of sales that happen at various times of year. Q3 probably isn’t a big car-buying time of year like December is. I also think that if Tesla just sells as many as they did in Q3 and adds not even 100k cybertrucks, they will hit their annual delivery quota of 1.8M vehicles. Maybe I should find a site that tracks the number of teslas Delivered, not just the inventory. Having nearly figured out my plan for my charger wiring, I’m getting antsy. And the last couple days have been days of decreasing inventory. Also, I know the estimated delivery for new orders will have to change from “Oct-Nov” I the next coming days. Folks like me needing to take delivery in 2023 could end up driving up demand actually resulting in price hikes, not discounts. Right?

Today’s inventory. It’s all charted, but the M3 decrease concerns me.

• Model S - 2697
• Model X - 3257
• Model 3 - 1076
• Model Y - 2065
• Total = 9095

Edit: the growth of the number of deliveries year over year is pretty impressive. Hopefully this image from statista uploads.

 

[EatsShoots]

View attachment 985411I’m really not impressed with the Q4 inventory growth and starting to grow more concerned that it won’t grow, and for M3 and MY sales in Q4, Tesla will rely on the government incentives. I’d be interested in seeing charts of quantities of sales that happen at various times of year. Q3 probably isn’t a big car-buying time of year like December is. I also think that if Tesla just sells as many as they did in Q3 and adds not even 100k cybertrucks, they will hit their annual delivery quota of 1.8M vehicles. Maybe I should find a site that tracks the number of teslas Delivered, not just the inventory. Having nearly figured out my plan for my charger wiring, I’m getting antsy. And the last couple days have been days of decreasing inventory. Also, I know the estimated delivery for new orders will have to change from “Oct-Nov” I the next coming days. Folks like me needing to take delivery in 2023 could end up driving up demand actually resulting in price hikes, not discounts. Right?

Today’s inventory. It’s all charted, but the M3 decrease concerns me.

• Model S - 2697
• Model X - 3257
• Model 3 - 1076
• Model Y - 2065
• Total = 9095

Edit: the growth of the number of deliveries year over year is pretty impressive. Hopefully this image from statista uploads.

Remember sometimes musk fiddles with pricing absent any obvious motivation; he could increase the pricing of the Y by $2k this afternoon and you'll never get any warning.

 

[mknmike]

View attachment 985411I’m really not impressed with the Q4 inventory growth and starting to grow more concerned that it won’t grow, and for M3 and MY sales in Q4, Tesla will rely on the government incentives. I’d be interested in seeing charts of quantities of sales that happen at various times of year. Q3 probably isn’t a big car-buying time of year like December is. I also think that if Tesla just sells as many as they did in Q3 and adds not even 100k cybertrucks, they will hit their annual delivery quota of 1.8M vehicles. Maybe I should find a site that tracks the number of teslas Delivered, not just the inventory. Having nearly figured out my plan for my charger wiring, I’m getting antsy. And the last couple days have been days of decreasing inventory. Also, I know the estimated delivery for new orders will have to change from “Oct-Nov” I the next coming days. Folks like me needing to take delivery in 2023 could end up driving up demand actually resulting in price hikes, not discounts. Right?

Today’s inventory. It’s all charted, but the M3 decrease concerns me.

• Model S - 2697
• Model X - 3257
• Model 3 - 1076
• Model Y - 2065
• Total = 9095

Edit: the growth of the number of deliveries year over year is pretty impressive. Hopefully this image from statista uploads.

Ok. This seems a little it’s to me. Since I posted that number earlier today, it looks like almost 100 model X have been taken out of inventory.

• Model S - 2749
• Model X - 3166
• Model 3 - 1079
• Model Y - 2032
• Total = 9026

These numbers are supposed to be “new” inventory, but the site also tracks Demo, CPO, and Used vehicles too. I wonder if Tesla may have pushed a bunch of X vehicles to Demo or something like that. This big jump in just a few hours for an expensive vehicle had me concerned the data is not reliable.

 

[mickaphely]

Tesla just raised the price of the Model Y long range AWD by $500. It's now $48,990 from $48,490.

 

[GenSao]

The Model Y LR-AWD today received a $500 price increase.

See date for chart here. Graph shows trims available to order online in US. Off The Menu (OTM) trims are dashed.

 

[EatsShoots]

Tesla just raised the price of the Model Y long range AWD by $500. It's now $48,990 from $48,490.

My comment from earlier in the morning aged quite well

@mknmike you could drive yourself nuts trying to look for patterns in the clouds with this stuff. My advice is if you want a tesla and can afford one to buy it now. Historically they are very cheap, whether they drop price by a few grand before end of year or not. And very possibly they could raise prices again.

 

[mknmike]

My comment from earlier in the morning aged quite well

@mknmike you could drive yourself nuts trying to look for patterns in the clouds with this stuff. My advice is if you want a tesla and can afford one to buy it now. Historically they are very cheap, whether they drop price by a few grand before end of year or not. And very possibly they could raise prices again.

Wadaya work for Tesla?

Patience will enable me to pounce. I’ve learned two big things yesterday that would have upset me if I learned them only after purchasing:

- M3 RWD can only charge at a max rate if 32 amps on level 2 charging. This would have been very disappointing to learn after purchasing, especially if I sized everything at 60 amps for an added expense without knowing this first. I may still run 60 amp wires, but use a 50 amp breaker. I’ve yet to setup my level 2 charging, which is another reason to not jump to buy.

- white interior doesn’t get the wood dash that black interior does. I understand I can probably buy the wood dash kit for $175, but like the idea of knowing and understanding this first.

I don’t know what other things I will learn on this quest, but we have time. Yes, the $500 increase in MYLR cost is concerning, and it was a model we were initially considering. But it seems my 14-year-old son convinced my wife to like the M3 more. I’m happy with that. I don’t think we can justify the extra cost of a LR model. I understand the following benefits though:
- maybe quicker charging times at 48 amps.
- longer range
- front wheel regenerative braking, not just dragging the rear wheels which might actually result in shredding rear tires.

- greater overall efficiency, perhaps as a result of the regenerative braking mentioned above.

The only items that make the M3 RWD more appealing are:
- environmentally friendlier LFP battery
- price tag (huge factor).

 

[Oyinko]

The Model Y LR-AWD today received a $500 price increase.

View attachment 985686

See date for chart here. Graph shows trims available to order online in US. Off The Menu (OTM) trims are dashed.

I believe they just started to increase the price to start triggering FOMO for all the people on hold for further discounts. This will help Tesla start moving inventory NOW instead of rushing in December with a massive influx of orders. I bet they will increase the price by another $500 in a week and ultimately bring the price down to end of November.

 

[flixden]

FOMO?

 

[amoney805]

FOMO?

Fear Of Missing Out.

 

[EatsShoots]

Wadaya work for Tesla?

Patience will enable me to pounce. I’ve learned two big things yesterday that would have upset me if I learned them only after purchasing:

- M3 RWD can only charge at a max rate if 32 amps on level 2 charging. This would have been very disappointing to learn after purchasing, especially if I sized everything at 60 amps for an added expense without knowing this first. I may still run 60 amp wires, but use a 50 amp breaker. I’ve yet to setup my level 2 charging, which is another reason to not jump to buy.

- white interior doesn’t get the wood dash that black interior does. I understand I can probably buy the wood dash kit for $175, but like the idea of knowing and understanding this first.

I don’t know what other things I will learn on this quest, but we have time. Yes, the $500 increase in MYLR cost is concerning, and it was a model we were initially considering. But it seems my 14-year-old son convinced my wife to like the M3 more. I’m happy with that. I don’t think we can justify the extra cost of a LR model. I understand the following benefits though:
- maybe quicker charging times at 48 amps.
- longer range
- front wheel regenerative braking, not just dragging the rear wheels which might actually result in shredding rear tires.

- greater overall efficiency, perhaps as a result of the regenerative braking mentioned above.

The only items that make the M3 RWD more appealing are:
- environmentally friendlier LFP battery
- price tag (huge factor).

I had no idea it was the ONLY tesla to charge at 32 amps max until I got mine. I did run 6 gauge 60 amp capable wire, and I am running a 50 amp breaker to a 10 kw charger.

You know what, though? It absolutely doesn't matter. I am positive I'd be fine at 24 amps. The odds of 32 amps being insufficient for a fast charge for me but 40 amps being sufficient are vanishingly small; like I'd have to come home late at night on an almost empty car and my wife needs to make a long trip first thing and, for some reason, we cannot use another car and/or the local supercharger is dead. I mean long story short I can still pull a dead car to 100% overnight @ 32 amps. We are doing 4k miles/month since pickup in mid-july and 32 amps has not caused a single issue.

 

[Watts_Up]

I had no idea it was the ONLY tesla to charge at 32 amps max until I got mine.

Home charging is generaly not really an issue, I have a 30 A (24 A nominal) plug.
But when using a public L2 charger, charging time starts to be an issue. Better using a 11 kW charger than a 6 kW charger.

 

[flixden]

I had no idea it was the ONLY tesla to charge at 32 amps max until I got mine. I did run 6 gauge 60 amp capable wire, and I am running a 50 amp breaker to a 10 kw charger.

You know what, though? It absolutely doesn't matter. I am positive I'd be fine at 24 amps. The odds of 32 amps being insufficient for a fast charge for me but 40 amps being sufficient are vanishingly small; like I'd have to come home late at night on an almost empty car and my wife needs to make a long trip first thing and, for some reason, we cannot use another car and/or the local supercharger is dead. I mean long story short I can still pull a dead car to 100% overnight @ 32 amps. We are doing 4k miles/month since pickup in mid-july and 32 amps has not caused a single issue.

Yeah. My Chargepoint charger is on a 50A breaker, so my max charge rate is 40A, and I am still only charging at 36A. Never needed faster in the 4.5k miles that we have on the odo now.

 

[Oyinko]

I ordered yesterday and took delivery of a MY LR today. Price has never been low and I would actually hate to see the price go up instead of waiting a bite more to save 1k or 2k…

I got the timing right!

 

[mickaphely]

I got the timing right!

Nice timing! I been, still am for the model year 2024s vins to start being assigned. Did you get a 2024 vin?

 

[Oyinko]

Nice timing! I been, still am for the model year 2024s vins to start being assigned. Did you get a 2024 vin?

No it's a 2023. I did not really care about the 2024 vin and needed a car right away...

 

[amoney805]

Nice timing! I been, still am for the model year 2024s vins to start being assigned. Did you get a 2024 vin?

When does Tesla typically do this?

 

[mickaphely]

No idea, I heard things all over the place from beginning of October to end of December.

 

[carpendj]

I hear you, and your frustration.
My recommendation is to just drive it. It's a great car, and if you keep it and sell it after say 8-10 years, the impact of that price drop will seem very small. It's a different story if you switch cars every few years though, .....

Its still a great car. I rarely keep cars more than 2 years but this time I am going to have to unless I want to take a big hit. Its not like I am stuck driving a Toyota. lol. I even won my neighbor over and he just took delivery of his first Tesla.