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Ok, and a key part of your analysis in June was no more need for equity raises. He raised some debt but let's see what happens there. We are getting to a point where analysis can be checked and held accountable and key data comes in...

VA, are you still thinking 75k M3 deliveries this year or have you updated the your model?

Anyone on here check out the AABC in SF this week? A lot of good battery info there...please share thoughts if you went. I know there are a lot detailed battery discussions on here.

This note from Tilson's email to investors was just put out, passing it along. All that said, I think that we are on the cusp of having to go closer to market neutral by putting on some hedges, even if not selling (some of) these kinds of stocks outright. The question is which ones. Some of...

Hedgeye just announced a short rec. They are having a client call next week. *and the rest of tech is down...lots of FANG overvalued discussions...and first stage of short covering is over...look for that 5/31 number that comes out later today and the 6/15 number coming out on 6/26.

That is correct but the more important number will be 6/15 posting on 6/26. It would capture the last week as well. Tomorrow's number at 4pm also helpful.

We're both speculating, but we'll have a confirmed answer in a few weeks. I know some institutions have covered. There will always be a portion that stays and waits for delivery and profitability data. New shorts are also picked up along the way.

High probability the last two weeks are the short squeeze. 6/15 shares short number comes out on the 26th.

Most accurate number of shares short (not dollars) comes out twice every month at Nasdaq. 5/31 number should come out on the 9th and 6/15 should come out on the 26th. Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Short Interest

The rumor is that a lot of funds were forced to cover over the last week, which would explain the volume on little news. So some of that particular catalyst might already be priced in. We'll see when the official short interest for June posts.

The algos are the part of the equation that I have no handle on. Funds like SIG and Renaissance (founder the #1 Trump supporter) are huge in the options...gigantic if you check the positions. Overall, the bid for FANG, AAPL, and TSLA is incredibly strong...not sure when that bid starts to...

Well that makes me sad...that's a huge delta! I got some great info from DurandalAI and I need to get some more quotes. My building is very strict on what vendors I can use though...not sure how this ended up being on this thread, apologies, but if anyone has experience installing an outlet in a...

They said it was quite some distance. However, I wasn't there when the electrician did the quote...my building manager was with the guy. So I need to spend some more time figuring it out. Spaces are deeded by unit so I can't just swap a space. Excellent...this is usable info I can go back to...

That's what I thought. I'm getting a second and third quote but here's my first quote: Install a 50 Amp 208 Volt circuit for an Electric Car Charger in the parking garage. Install approx. 500’ of conduit and wiring from the electrical panel in the Garage. Customer to provide the charging...

Correct, could even be $400+. But if there is a clear indication that they can execute 500k cars early next year and stay profitable, it gives me a lot more data and confidence in the Company executing on other fronts. There will still be value on the table at that point. Good luck with your...

Ok, 75k model 3 deliveries this year, 500k total vehicle deliveries next year, and no need for outside capital. I'll fully admit that I was too bearish if that happens. We'll start to know soon here in a few months. Any dissent to the bull case is met with a lot sceptisim here so the confidence...

Ok so then we agree that Apple is not a comp but for different reasons. Your assumptions, and I haven't seen detailed work, would mean the stock is a double. Your assumptions are a bull case which could definitely happen. I agree with you on what the stock is currently pricing in. I can't...

Were the S and X delays and issues due to third party parts or execution and design?

Ok, there we go. I'd more or less agree with that. I'm waiting for an opportunity to pick the stock up if there are execution issues (which there is a reasonable chance of)...that would substantially de-risk the position for me. Otherwise, I'm going to sit back and watch them get it done and be...

Thx, I'm pretty much sold. I just have a to figure out my charging situation and lease vs. buy. It looks like the lease bakes in the tax credit? I keep my cars a really long time and have always bought but it seems like cars are just going to be come devices going forward. People might want to...

Ok, fair enough, you don't want to put more of your assumptions out there. This forum might not be the appropriate venue to discuss this in depth. 1. I have a fall off in S/X to get to closer to $50k (S is getting to be a 7 year old design next year); but, fine, I'll concede that. 2. Ok. 3. You...

We haven't really gotten in depth enough to throw out "way off base." I could be, but 4 sentences of info is not enough. So 2018 is 500k cars in your view, that's a best case bull scenario...100k - 200k Model 3s is a "conservative case" and what most bulls expect, and $60k ASP with that many...

Ok, what's Rev, EBITDA, and NI look like in your 500k and 1m cars a year cases? 500k for 2018 is your bull case?

The only way this stock will ever really be in trouble is if the Model 3 is not profitable (if he makes it right it well sell...think everyone on here feels that way...so demand side is good) and he can't convince people to put new $$ in to make it right. So far he's been great at the latter part.

I'm only a customer at this point. I'd consider buying the stock if 100% success rate on model 3 wasn't already priced in. It's too risky for me to long or short (I don't short in PA). There are definitely future cash flow streams beyond model 3 out there, but that's too speculative for my risk...

100% right but what happens on trips. Won't be able to just let the car sit and have breakfast if there's a wait. I'm getting quotes right now for a power outlet for the 75D I'm getting, for my condo it's $5k for a 240V install. For mass penetration you need apartment and condo buyers to charge...

Quick follow up, you mentioned you had a Lexus previously. How would you compare the service levels?

Tesla, as it currently stands, is one of the most vertically integrated businesses I've ever looked at. From manufacturing to sales. That doesn't mean anything bad at face value. It just means that execution risk is higher as they are literally involved in every stage of the process. As for the...

Amazed at response level and information on this site. Thanks for chiming in. Going with Glass Roof and the wife can wear a hat! On to the next challenge, have to get a plug installed in my condo space. I park next to a Model X so it's doable. The quote is $5k which seems high. I'll start...

That is a good way to back into it. There might be some cowboys out there. However, HF assets are $3T and L/S equity is a big component. You'd have to consider retail investors as well.

If you have evidence to the contrary please submit. Most funds I know are short 200-300 bps.

That sounds right, maybe a little earlier. High conviction shorts for institutional investors are generally much smaller positions than high conviction longs. The key with any short, especially a volatile equity like TSLA, is sizing. Plus...they are waiting for their catalyst, which they think...

Yup, UV is a much bigger concern than heat.

UV, I see outside sources saying 98%/99% but can't find anything directly from Tesla.

Thanks, good info here, I don't think I'll be paying extra and taking more time to get the solid roof, which seems like a less desirable option...doh.

Ok, so if your are saying Apple was running a similarly capital intensive business to Tesla, even though they outsourced actual production, that's a significant point. Would need to understand how because on the surface it doesn't make sense. I do not have considerable supply chain experience...

Ok, How so on the AAPL AMNX and dilution.

It's actually a small amount related to their balance sheets. But I would question their execution and vision more.

Hey, as long as you take into account the large negatives in terms of execution that's all good. Need to find a recent comp or case study for this. Apple and Amazon don't directly comp in terms of cash use. Amazon generated more internal cash flow and it wasn't tied to one product. Apple...

Ok, thanks. I personally like it but my wife is super paranoid about UV rays etc. We test drove at noon on a 100 degree day with the sun right above and I still felt the rays...very slightly though. They have a few new 75Ds with solid roofs...but they are super rare and I would have to pay...

I want to get a new 75D but I don't like the all glass roof. It's hot as hell where I live and the glass creates a greenhouse effect. Anyone here with the all glass roof that lives in very sunny/hot weather and finding it to still be ok? I'm just wondering what it's like to live with for a...

Isn't there a clear difference between between AAPL and TSLA that never gets mentioned though? AAPL outsourced all of its manufacturing...making it a far less capital intensive business than TSLA. AAPL de-risked a lot by doing that... Fyi, I'm new here. In the market for a new 75D but need to...