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Personally i believe PE is important for wallstreet, so for the period between 2013 and 2019 it was hard for wallstreet to properly put a valuation on Tesla as they weren't profitable yet. Right now i think as long as Tesla lives up to the earnings targets i believe to be realistic, then there's...

Hi guys! I'm considering adding some leaps with 2024/2025 expiry, but first want to try to understand if there's any realism to wallstreets EPS estimate of 5,76 for 2023. Personally, I don't see any realistic scenario where tesla is producing less than 2,1M vehicles next year. 2,1M would...

At this point i am really wondering what the statistical probability is for tesla to not reach at least 300 by june 2024 (up 35% from today). If we use a PE of 40 to be bearish, we would only need 7,5 in trailing EPS in Q1 2024. That eps is so ridiculously low. Annualized PE for Q4 2022 already...

Is now the time i sacrifice myself for you guys and sell all my remaining margin to ensure Tesla will keep going up the next couple of days/weeks 🤔

Updated base case 2022 - 2025. 2025 deliveries will be very hard to predict before we know when the new factories are announced and how many there will be. I guess it's most likely that there will be two new ones announced before the end of the year, but three would be awesome. 2023 -...

Wait... He has ASP falling hard in Q3 and Q4?

Lots of good information on the call 😁

Pro tip: follow all Tesla Twitter accounts. Then you can look at new Twitter posts while waiting for more TMC posts 😁 Edit: TMC -> Twitter -> reddit and repeat

As someone who works with pricing products on a daily basis - me too! Nothing better than Tesla's position either when it comes to margin. Being hard capped on production so they have all the pricing power in the world, and now also with inflation as the perfect excuse for raising the prices as...

Well, if tesla can add more than 500K production in a year in texas i'll surely take my hats off to Elon once again. I've adjusted my deliveries from both berlin and texas slightly higher, but i'm still crossing my fingers that we'll start seeing some new factory announcements soon so 50%...

Troy's comment about Giga Berlin from his patreon: "In the past, I used to hear about plans to add mirror buildings to the Giga Berlin site that would double or triple the current 500K/year capacity. However, those plans seem to be scrapped now." (updated in june) Giga Berlin's current factory...

For berlin and Austin to hit 1M production in 2024 they would have to increase production by more than 500K from 2023 (and that's also when bumping 2023 deliveries up to 475K on each of the factories). A scenario like that would look like this: Don't get me wrong though - I'm 100% hoping for...

True, but i would assume Tesla have many of the same executives and experts in the process of expanding and creating the production lines. I would believe Elon also having a part in each of the setups as he considers himself to be the most knowledgeable person when it comes to manufacturing. I...

I'm having a hard time seeing tesla growing their deliveries by 50% in 2024. I doubt they'll manage to do so in 2025 or 2026 either unless three new factories are announced very soon. Giga Texas should in theory be slowed down a bit in 2023 by introducing 2 or 3 new models (semi might be...

With 370K CT's delivered, base price alone should provide more than a 10% increase in total profits in 2025. With FSD and extras, probably more than 15% (assuming no robotaxi service being started in 2023 or 2024)

Does this look like a fairly decent split between the different models?

Shouldn't Berlin in theory ramp up as fast or faster than Austin in 2023 as Austin will also have to split their focus on new products like the cyber, semi and roadster? Or are all the other advantages of Austin overshadowing this potential slowdown? Or won't the production of the newer models...

Hahah. Alright then. I'll stick to the sideline for now 😊

You don't have to be sad that you bought at a higher price despite being happy when the prices drop. Of course it's not a good thing that you could potentially have bought in at a lower price, but no one can predict the marked in the short term. Just because you bought at higher prices doesn't...

True, but hopefully they didn't commit to the trade with a 1-year target for great returns. If they started investing one year ago they most likely don't have huge amounts of money in the marked and should be glad to get the opportunity buy in more at better prices than before. Yes, it's not the...

"But instead I'll just say that you remind me of someone that openly roots for his favorite sports team to lose so that they get a better draft pick next year. " That's not an apt comparison at all 😅 As long as nothing is fundamentally changing for Tesla my price target will be the same for...

If you are never adding any cash into your portfolio i guess you have either retired or have added a huge one time sum into the marked at some point which you are watching the movements of. I guess there are very few who isn't adding any cash to their portofolio over time (unless they have an...

I can't understand why people dislike low prices... My biggest wish is that we can just have one last year with stupidly low prices so i can keep adding to my position while the expected returns are higher than ever. I guess if you are very leveraged with margin or have short term calls that's...

No, i don't mind at all. I actually really love criticism and generally hearing other opinions than my own. That's why i post these things to every forum i can find, so i can try to find out new things i hadn't thought of 😁 I've already tweaked my model quite a bit with the feedback I've gotten...

In the next 12 months revenue should increase more than deliveries as sales prices are going up. First in 2025 we will see deliveries going up a lot more than revenue as prices starts to drop noticeably and we might see the compact car in production.

Maybe so. For my part i would assume at least 30-50% will still own their own cars. Most people who have 2 will go down to 1, and maybe 50% of the ones who own 1 will still keep their car. At least for the first 5-10 years before network has properly scaled up.

Which of these are correct? 1,083B or 1,033B outstanding shares 12/31/21? And for 03/31/22 macrotrends shows 1,157B for and ycharts shows 1,036B

My bad, forgot OpEx that margin doesn't affect revenue. I guess if the compact vehicle doesn't come out and the 5,45 million numbers i have for deliveres are all 3's and Y's (and a bit semis, cybers and roadsters), and if they won't have to decrease ASP at all from the 2023 highs (remaining at...

Well, i would be very worried right now if they had any sort of problem selling a bit more than 1 million model y's and 3's a year when they should be selling around 4 million in 2025. The biggest marked in the world is by far the sub 30K cars, so in my mind there is no doubt they will go into...

No, because of two things: 1. They deliver other products which affects the delivery/revenue relationship. 2. In the future they will most likely sell cheaper vehicles, so despite them increasing deliveries by 50%, revenue could still only grow by 30%. This would of course be the opposite if...

Well, how the numbers are adding up are all in the table. I'd be happy to change some of them to make the numbers different if you can point out which ones looks off to you (not the sum of the numbers, but factors actually making the results like deliveries, margins, ASP, operating expenses and...

True. That's why im buying leaps with 2 year expiry 😁 And if PE keeps compressing for 2 years, but tesla performs as expected, i will buy three times as many contracts in a year or two 😂

(Just so we're clear though. I'm a huge believer in FSD, and i think this will be somewhat priced into the share price. Tesla will probably always have a + 10-15 bonus in it's PE solely on the hope of the robotaxi network coming to fruition.) Well, marked prices are based on expectations of...

The PE's for 2023 and 2024 are adjusted so you will have a stable increase in the share price up till 2025. I think 30 PE in 2025 is fair if the marked is relatively flat and Tesla's growth rate at this point is 30% and continues downwards to 20% the following years.

If the the general marked is doing good, the PE will probably be higher (and thus also the share price). This is just what i would consider fair value in a flat marked.

PE is the least interesting value though unless you're going all in on leaps banking on PE staying at least 60 😅 PE isn't saying much of how they're actually performing (only how bullish people are for the next 5+ years). Your logic doesn't make any sense. According to my projections tesla is...

The growth rate in this projection is 110% in 2023 compared to 2022 and 48,5% in 2024. By your definition PE should drop by over 50% in one year then...

I used to have a PE of 60 in all my forecasts, but i sleep better at night pricing down to 30 😁 My problem was that net income dropped very sharply when looking into 2026-2030 if i was not including FSD. If robotaxi's become a thing, you could easily double net income and 3-4X the PE for 2025...

I guess it makes sense to add this table as well:

Oh damn the general consensus is waaaay different from my own projections

Does anyone know approximately what Tesla's freight cost is per vehicle from China to Europe? Tried searching a bit for this, but couldnt find anything. Also they have sent 10+ boats from china to europe now in july/august with m3 and my and a total of approx 55K cars. I guess they send around...

To add to this. This chart is extremely interesting. One of two longer very definite trends in opposite directions will have to break. If it breaks to the upside we can finally start to see a potential ramp towards the all time highs. If the breaks downwards it will be very bearish for upcoming...

This is not trading, it's still investing. The entire point of this compared to regular margin is that it doesn't matter if the stock price falls in the short term. Even if a black swan event occurred which made Tesla stock price stay relatively flat the next 3-5 years (which is very hard to...

If this is a loan without collateral then Tesla's short term volatility wouldn't really matter. The only thing you would need would be a stable income and stable expenses so you know you can cover the monthly payments. Higher risk, but not high risk, depending on the individuals situation of...

Damn, 2,25% percentage huh. Tried to find some good sources for borrowing money in Norway and couldn't find a place that would give me better interest than 8% (Already maxed out my limit on my mortgage).

Aah. Lots of things i haven't considered here. Thank you for very much for the response - it really bothered me. I'll read through the earnings thoroughly a few more times i think and read-do some of my numbers. Thanks again!

Hi, I have a question i got from Tesla's Q1 earnings. I usually don't read much on forums and such, and i've got admit i've never used Tesla Motors Club before, so i'm sorry if this is not the right place to ask investing related questions. At Tesla earnings for Q1 we know they only sold model...