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  1. paydirt76

    S&P spike - when to sell and when to re-buy?

    I’m at 25 total now... Have 10 in leaps... yesterday, just bought 1,500 Dec 18th 690c @ $13.69. Total gamble. 8% of my total. I will not sell them early... Depending on where stock gets to on Dec 18th, may sell all my Tesla. If you think stock gets too high, best move is to sell all. Be sober...
  2. paydirt76

    S&P spike - when to sell and when to re-buy?

    Donated $250k of calls to my kids' school today so they can get "needle point plasma" air treatment to kill viruses and knock pollution out of recycled air. They will also use some of the funds to put in new HVAC systems since the current ones are nearly 20 years old.
  3. paydirt76

    S&P spike - when to sell and when to re-buy?

    Index funds may wait until mid December to buy, so we can see some indifference and weakness in the interim. I think the big funds will want to break up inclusion dates to Dec 14th & Dec 21st as the S&P is offering. I don't think it will be a continual ramp up until Dec 11th (and then Dec...
  4. paydirt76

    Paydirt's (TSLA) Option Investing Guide

    To update folks... I have been very busy. I cannot keep giving freely to everyone and neglect those who actively count on me. The money has been life changing. Work is really taking off and we are helping many more people, all at once. We just hired two people into an already small team and are...
  5. paydirt76

    Paydirt's (TSLA) Option Investing Guide

    MABMAB, Your attacks will be defended. As stated here and in other threads, I said: (1) we were in a unique very narrow window of opportunity. (2) if you want to fully understand options, it will take a long time. I used to train people to become real stock option market makers. (3) If you...
  6. paydirt76

    Paydirt's (TSLA) Option Investing Guide

    The computers are always watching every strike of the Tesla options. If you were go in with a limit order to sell at the midpoint of bid/ask, you may be able to get a fill, if you don't you can walk it down until they fill you.
  7. paydirt76

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    @adiggs This sounds like a full time job... When you add up all the options and all the stock, are you up at least as much as the stock is this year?
  8. paydirt76

    Paydirt's (TSLA) Option Investing Guide

    Volatility in the options is too low for reasons already established, so if I did puts I would buy them. I'm not bearish though, I think stock is worth $2,300 without FSD, and FSD may be coming... so I am not going to gamble on a pullback by taking an overt bearish when I think stock just needs...
  9. paydirt76

    Paydirt's (TSLA) Option Investing Guide

    Sold my October calls yesterday. They were October 16th 1,500 calls. I put in $1.4M and sold them for $2.7M, making a $1.3M profit. Thank you to the call sellers. Shaky plan is to sit out for a week and a half and reload maybe on August 28th, or possibly reload right after Labor Day. At that...
  10. paydirt76

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    I suspect your charting understates how "off" the market is, but essentially, the market is two-sided and the current prices reflect equilibrium between all the different viewpoints. If one "buys" 100 IV by going long options at those prices and realized vol slows down to 50, then you lose...
  11. paydirt76

    Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

    I thank the Simulation everyday for call sellers, especially the ones who think implied volatility is too high... or that the price of the options is too high... and most especially those who don't understand that the implied volatility is lower than the realized volatility of the stock itself...
  12. paydirt76

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Post split, my target is $428/share based on where I think they will be in 4-5 years without robotaxis.
  13. paydirt76

    Paydirt's (TSLA) Option Investing Guide

    Important to note this article about tax consequences of playing call spreads... you also need to be careful about playing taxable account vs IRA. Tax Treatment For Trading Options | GreenTraderTax You cannot defer taxes indefinitely.
  14. paydirt76

    Paydirt's (TSLA) Option Investing Guide

    I don’t think that’s true. If it was true, then why were companies included in May or Feb? Look at this. S&P 500® - S&P Dow Jones Indices It is possible they wait and decide to do it during quarterly inclusion.
  15. paydirt76

    Paydirt's (TSLA) Option Investing Guide

    While it is possible they don’t add Tesla, I guess. Worst case is they start the process this quarter (do 50% allocation during their quarterly rebalance). I’ve chosen Oct regular monthly expiration.
  16. paydirt76

    Paydirt's (TSLA) Option Investing Guide

    Yes, bless you @ckessel for going thru it all. I think the sweet spot of leverage is where it blows thru your strikes by roughly an equal amount that it used to be out of the money. As far as what I call laddering. I am meaning expirations which I think you get... putting all these thoughts...
  17. paydirt76

    Paydirt's (TSLA) Option Investing Guide

    @paydirt76, the analysis and all of the follow up execution that went along with it that you have provided has been a wealth of knowledge and I believe that many people have found it extremely helpful. Considering that your timing on your calls have been practically impeccable (even if a little...
  18. paydirt76

    Paydirt's (TSLA) Option Investing Guide

    @juanmedina in case you missed it. ^^^ I also mentioned earlier in the thread how I select strikes (though I didn't write the section on that yet). You can piece it together ;)
  19. paydirt76

    Paydirt's (TSLA) Option Investing Guide

    Tesla has released their 10-Q. The S&P 500 Committee would have been ready for this and have a gameplan. They may negotiate with Tesla mgmt to see if Tesla will sell some stock to the index funds (to make it easier for index funds to accumulate shares). Depending on how the negotiations go could...
  20. paydirt76

    Paydirt's (TSLA) Option Investing Guide

    I'm happy to block you if you haven't been happy with my level of transparency in this whole thread.
  21. paydirt76

    Paydirt's (TSLA) Option Investing Guide

    Ended up buying some October calls. Got very lucky, due to circumstances, was forced to buy after 3pm. Am invested alongside some folks now so cannot disclose the exact position.
  22. paydirt76

    Paydirt's (TSLA) Option Investing Guide

    TODAY IS A GIFT Today feels like a major headfake. We just got great news. Earnings speculators are being washed out, IV is being crushed. I am initiating a position today. My custodian froze when I tried to buy in the last 5 minutes yesterday. Lucky. I suspect that people who are long on...
  23. paydirt76

    Paydirt's (TSLA) Option Investing Guide

    I covered maybe in the second half in a way but did not label. Thank you for the feedback. For long timers, you may gain nothing... but maybe long timers don't yet know about the "Options Ladder" tactic... Hint: it's almost the opposite of the "options wheel." EXPIRATION CHOICES In investing...
  24. paydirt76

    Paydirt's (TSLA) Option Investing Guide

    SWEET SIXTEEN So highlighted below is the day that the thread was started. I said volatility was cheap and many knee-jerked and debated me. Much hay was made in post P&D inclusion run up in Sept then Aug calls. Leaps were sold when the goal was reached, to own 5,000 Tesla shares and have cash...
  25. paydirt76

    Paydirt's (TSLA) Option Investing Guide

    Something like the around the money Sept monthlies, so something like that. Cannot say which one until it is done. and that may be too late for you to see.
  26. paydirt76

    Paydirt's (TSLA) Option Investing Guide

    If you can hold on for the ride, I believe the ideal time to sell would be the day before inclusion date. Just a guess. I did not delve into Frank SG's research yet. @hershey101 The play I make today or tomorrow will likely be Sept or Oct. Not sure I will have the courage to hold until...
  27. paydirt76

    Paydirt's (TSLA) Option Investing Guide

    Let's say you own 4 June 2021 640C in a taxable account. You want to roll up strikes or get out and not pay taxes. Just sell 4 June 2021 640C against it. You will need the approvals to do so. You pocket the cash from the sale and don't pay tax until expiration. You will have to work with your...
  28. paydirt76

    Paydirt's (TSLA) Option Investing Guide

    Last I checked, share price is still below where I sold :P One 5% up move is enough to send all you long-timers into a tizzy? Sold the Aug 21 2020 1500C for average price of $360. That will look like a bad sale soon, but that's OK. Two reasons, one: goals. My goal is to own 5,000 deltas for the...
  29. paydirt76

    Paydirt's (TSLA) Option Investing Guide

    You never bought :P
  30. paydirt76

    Should advisors speculate on long calls for clients?

    Curious what you all think.
  31. paydirt76

    Paydirt's (TSLA) Option Investing Guide

    Cc: @juanmedina Not going to provide daily updates but will update as position or thinking changes... but... When the goal was set in January to be long 5,000 deltas for the next 6,000 points on the stock. It was never imagined that at one time the account could straight up buy 5,000 shares...
  32. paydirt76

    Paydirt's (TSLA) Option Investing Guide

    8 million of gains were in the past 3 weeks... 4 million from leaps, 4 millions from calls 1-2 months out, during a time when the knee jerk response was “volatility is very high” Gains have not been as high as you say unless you’re talking about someone who bought Jan’2022 calls when the...
  33. paydirt76

    Paydirt's (TSLA) Option Investing Guide

    If you don’t want to build shares anymore. Might as well use regular shares, if you want to build shares, use 100% options and reserve cash to add. Don’t hedge deltas often, only after big moves.
  34. paydirt76

    Paydirt's (TSLA) Option Investing Guide

    You do you. You’ve literally watched a triple of an account and you are clinging to old modes of thinking. Why do you think it is being shared exactly what is being done? So you can go do the wheel? Go do the wheel! adiggs is getting slaughtered! It is being done so you can just copy what is...
  35. paydirt76

    Paydirt's (TSLA) Option Investing Guide

    Choppy trading is great for long option plays. You need to go back and read the Guide. Set a "home" for deltas or percent of net worth in options and then trim when it hits the top end of a range, add when it hits the bottom end. Macro is noise period. It's a great separator of wealth when...
  36. paydirt76

    Paydirt's (TSLA) Option Investing Guide

    with you all the way until you said “tight stops” and “macro environment.” Tight stops are for speculators and gamblers, not investors. Stops serve to stop you from making more money. Stop limits limit your gains. Never say “tight stops” again. You as someone who admittedly has made less than...
  37. paydirt76

    Paydirt's (TSLA) Option Investing Guide

    Lucky. Sold the inclusion play in the morning at $360 per Aug 1500C. Even though stock was down today, account was up 1.1. Plan to sit on cash until either (1) Stock hits $1,300-$1,400, will rebuy Aug $1,500 with 5-10% of portfolio or (2) Look to make a play after earnings. Risk management
  38. paydirt76

    Paydirt's (TSLA) Option Investing Guide

    Sounds like you sold it best! Stud!
  39. paydirt76

    Paydirt's (TSLA) Option Investing Guide

    Despite appearances, do not own a crystal ball. Right now it is marching back up after going nearly unchanged on the day. CRAZY. 1,330 on the stock sounds like a nice number but even if it doesn't go that low, may add back to some short-term calls after earnings.
  40. paydirt76

    Paydirt's (TSLA) Option Investing Guide

    My friend is a rule-breaker and a liar. Sold their inclusion play this morning. Here’s the screencap. May look to rebuy inclusion calls after earnings but before an announcement from S&P
  41. paydirt76

    Paydirt's (TSLA) Option Investing Guide

    yes better pricing on spreads generally... but see the next post...
  42. paydirt76

    Prove Me Wrong: Inclusion is Played Out Until Announcement

    Don't care. Don't need to prove it. Because of the information edge that we have, the markets don't appreciate very new information to us. So may have been up a % or 2 because of Elon's tweets about cost reductions (unibody cast of Y in Berlin) from superfans/suberbulls buying on those...
  43. paydirt76

    You're suddenly well off, your lifelong friends are not. Now what?

    @heltok Funny you mention health and family and making life easier more simple. It's been the exact focus. Health. Communication. Being Present. Getting Help. Reducing Overwhelm. All to make more Impact. Yup.
  44. paydirt76

    Prove Me Wrong: Inclusion is Played Out Until Announcement

    pretty much. Possibly adding some dollars after earnings but before the committee announcement of a date.
  45. paydirt76

    Paydirt's (TSLA) Option Investing Guide

    yeah, don't need spreads in the retirement accounts, just may be handy in the after tax account.
  46. paydirt76

    You're suddenly well off, your lifelong friends are not. Now what?

    Interesting topic. As of yesterday's close, up 11,600,000 in Tesla in 13 months. Was hanging with some friends on 7/3 who are better off and have family who is CFO of a Fortune 500. Was like, "Sorry if a little spacey tonight. Made a lot of money on Tesla this week." They know about the Tesla...
  47. paydirt76

    Prove Me Wrong: Inclusion is Played Out Until Announcement

    Apparently average investors did not know about S&P Inclusion for Tesla. Why would they? But the Reuters story Friday about S&P Inclusion went viral and was syndicated by the NYT and CNBC. Then regular investors bought up Tesla shares pushing the stock up over 10% in one day... and they may...
  48. paydirt76

    Paydirt's (TSLA) Option Investing Guide

    Thanks. Just curious what's the benefit of selling the next strike up to close my position vs closing the call outright? I am trading through Vanguard and is not the best platform, I am not sure if I will able to do that. I tried to sell a covered call against my other call and Vanguard didn't...
  49. paydirt76

    S&P spike - when to sell and when to re-buy?

    No one has a clue, how big/long/etc the spike would be. You can do whatever you want of course. If you want coverage, then you can do limit day orders and then limit extended hours orders. You can get a mobile app on your phone and put in the orders that way.
  50. paydirt76

    Don't Forget! Tesla Investors Information Edge

    There are so many advantages Tesla has as an investment, it's often easy to forget them. Even if you keep a list of advantages, the list gets too long. Here's one we've all forgotten... In January 2020, Wall Street was SHOCKED that Tesla was starting to produce the Model 3 in China. But we all...